Darlington preview: Who has the best or worst outlook?

Denny Hamlin

Average finish at Darlington: 7.2 (ranks first among playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Darlington: Winner (wins in 2020, 2017 and 2010; latter two came in Southern 500)

Comment: Hamlin outpaced Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch and regular-season champion Kevin Harvick to win May’s second race at Darlington. His 7.2 average finish is the only sub-10 average among the Round of 16 field. With a start on the front row Sunday, expect him to be right in the mix to kickstart his quest for his elusive first title with a trip to Victory Lane.

Brad Keselowski

Average finish at Darlington: 10.4 (ranks second)

Most recent finish at Darlington: Fourth (won in 2018) Comment: Keselowski has five top-five finishes and seven top 10s in 13 starts at Darlington. Since his last win at the track in 2018, he has finished outside the top five only once here, and his overall consistency at 1.5-mile ovals this season makes him a prime contender to walk away with a victory this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.

Average finish at Darlington: 11.1 (ranks third)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 10th (win in 2016)

Comment: Despite Truex making just one trip to Victory Lane this season, his recent string of impressive finishes might make him the hottest of the bunch. Truex hasn’t finished outside the top four since mid-July at Texas Motor Speedway — including a run of seven straight inside the top three — and with a championship-winning pedigree, he may very well steal the show.

Kyle Busch

Average finish at Darlington: 11.4 (ranks fourth)

Most recent finish at Darlington: Runner-up (win in 2008)

Comment: Busch has had an unusual amount of struggles this season, but he’s still the reigning series champion and that makes him a driver to beat every week. Busch and company finished runner-up to teammate Denny Hamlin in May, showing speed he has almost always had at the track. Even though he enters Sunday’s race 14th in points, he clearly has a chip on his shoulder and can easily turn around his title hopes with a win here.

Austin Dillon

Average finish at Darlington: 13.2 (ranks fifth)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 20th

Comment: A career-best finish of fourth in the 2017 trip to Darlington doesn’t fully tell the tale of Dillon’s performance at the track. The Richard Childress Racing wheelman has struggled to find his way back into the top 10 here on a regular basis, but after picking up his third career victory at Texas earlier this season — another 1.5-mile track — he may have more tricks up his sleeve.

Kevin Harvick

Average finish at Darlington: 13.4 (ranks sixth)

Most recent finish at Darlington: Third (wins in 2020 and 2014; the latter came in the Southern 500)

Comment: Harvick may not have the career average finish of the drivers listed ahead of him, but he has been one of the drivers to beat all year, alongside Hamlin. The 2020 regular-season champion and top playoff seed won the first Darlington race in May, and the odds have made him the favorite to conquer the field again.

Joey Logano

Average finish at Darlington: 15.8 (ranks seventh)

Most recent finish at Darlington: Sixth

Comment: Logano started the season off hot, collecting each of his two wins in 2020 within the first four races of the season. In spite of cooling off a bit, he still finds himself a frontrunner nearly every week and is almost always a threat to challenge for the win. Numbers show the No. 22 can have a lot of success here, but he will have to stay damage-free this weekend to perform to his potential — easier said than done.

Kurt Busch

Average finish at Darlington: 15.9 (ranks eighth)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 15th

Comment: The elder Busch is the most experienced driver in the playoff field, with 25 career starts at the track to only two career DNFs. Coming into the Round of 16 with just one playoff point, this valuable ability to stay out and finish races may prove vital in gaining position on the drivers ahead. Four of the last five at the track have been top 10s for Busch, so don’t be surprised if he stays near the front all afternoon.

Aric Almirola

Average finish at Darlington: 17.6 (ranks ninth)

Most recent finish at Darlington: Seventh

Comment: Almirola’s recent contract extension with Stewart-Haas Racing checks one of the boxes for him heading into throwback weekend and may provide him with a confidence boost. His last trip to Darlington was his first-ever top 10 here and his best career finish here. He has never led a lap at the track, something he’ll hope to change this time around.

Chase Elliott

Average finish at Darlington: 18.3 (ranks 10th)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 38th

Comment: Elliott crashed out of his last trip to Darlington while battling for the lead, but prior to that, he rallied for an impressive fourth-place finish here — his best ever. Entering the playoffs slotted fifth and with a pair of wins this season already under his belt, winning this race is certainly in the cards for the No. 9 team. The focus may be routinely on the top two in Harvick and Hamlin, but the fan favorite certainly has the intermediate speed to close the points gap early.

Alex Bowman

Average finish at Darlington: 19.0 (ranks 11th)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 18th

Comment: Bowman’s ranking is a bit boosted by a runner-up finish earlier in May, which fails to tell his overall run of struggles at the track. Eighteenth is his next highest finish, and if he doesn’t want to dig himself into a Round of 16 hole, he will need to find a way to reverse this trend Sunday.

Ryan Blaney

Average finish at Darlington: 19.9 (ranks 12th)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 21st

Comment: It might be shocking to hear Blaney has never finished inside the top 10 at Darlington in his Cup Series career. He has finished every race but struggled mightily to find his way to the front of the pack. The No. 12 team has been one of the ones to watch all season despite only nabbing on win, and Blaney seemingly has more confidence in his team than ever.

Matt DiBenedetto

Average finish at Darlington: 21.0 (ranks 13th)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 9th

Comment: After fighting his way into the playoffs in the season finale, DiBenedetto has a lot of ground to make up. Luckily, Darlington is a track he has begun to grow fond of as his career progresses. Two top-10 finishes in his last three visits leave him poised for a good points day Sunday.

Clint Bowyer

Average finish at Darlington: 21.3 (ranks 14th)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 22nd

Comment: Bowyer has had his share of woes at Darlington throughout his career, completing just 89.4 percent of the laps here in 16 career starts — tallying four DNFs. Entering the playoffs with just three additional points, making the Round of 12 is already looming large for the No. 14 crew, and with points coming at a premium, Bowyer can’t afford to not finish another race. He will hope to rekindle the success from 2019, where he finished a career-best sixth.

William Byron

Average finish at Darlington: 25.8 (ranks 15th)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 12th

Comment: If you leave out the first race at Dover International Speedway, Byron has found a good form as of late — including his first career victory in an electric finish at Daytona International Speedway last weekend. In addition to the win, he has a fourth-place finish, an eighth-place finish and a 10th-place finish dating back to Kansas Speedway. The No. 24 camp may not have had the consistency all season, but it clearly knows how to turn it on when it counts. Commanded by the veteran chief Chad Knaus, in his record-setting 17th consecutive playoff season, Byron and company’s hopes look better than their average finish suggests.

Cole Custer

Average finish at Darlington: 26.5 (ranks 16th)

Most recent finish at Darlington: 31st

Comment: The Stewart-Haas Racing rookie may be the least experienced driver in the 16-man playoff field, but he has shown he can survive in a “win and you’re in” format after clinching a playoff berth with a victory at Kentucky Speedway earlier this season. However, with checkered flags hard to come by for rookies this season, Custer needs to show more consistency to at least finish where he starts — launching 14th in his first Southern 500.

Before the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs opener at the iconic track "Too Tough to Tame," NASCAR.com dissects which drivers have the best and worst outlook based on career finishes and this season’s trends. Playoff drivers are ranked from low to high in order of their career average finish at Darlington Raceway.