BACK TO GALLERIES
Predicting every 2021 NASCAR Cup Series race winner
By Zack Albert and Pat DeCola | Published: February 13, 2021 38
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Before the 2021 Daytona 500, NASCAR.com's Zack Albert and Pat DeCola took turns predicting each NASCAR Cup Series race winner. See all the predictions before one of the most anticipated seasons in history kicks off.
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Daytona 500
Pat's pick: Bubba Wallace
Why: What a way to introduce 23XI Racing to the world. Bubba has been close before (2018 runner-up), and his team owner — the other one — just so happens to have won the past two Daytona 500s and is probably sharing some of that secret sauce with his driver.
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Daytona Road Course
Zack's pick: Chase Elliott
Why: While the prospect of a season sweep of all seven road-course races on the 2021 schedule would be a monumental long shot, it’s tough to go against the defending Cup Series champ’s current four-win streak on the left-and-right layouts -- at least early in the season.
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Miami
Pat's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: Since early in his career it has always been a foregone conclusion that given his excellence at running the wall, Larson would win in Miami at some point. Look for the 2016 finale runner-up to shake off any rust and land in Victory Lane before we hit April.
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Las Vegas
Zack's pick: Matt DiBenedetto
Why: Matty D. landed three top-five finishes last year. Two of those were runner-up efforts at Las Vegas. Insert your dice-rolling, big-bet Sin City reference here for a first-time winner.
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Phoenix
Pat's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: If Rowdy hasn't won by now, look for him to park it at Phoenix, where, before an 11th-place finish in last year's finale, he put together a 2.9 average finish over the previous 10 races.
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Atlanta
Zack's pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: No driver has amassed more points than Harvick in the last 10 Cup Series races at the Georgia track. The span of six consecutive events with a top-10 finishes continues here with a W.
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Bristol dirt
Pat's pick: Christopher Bell
Why: This entire race is basically going to be one entertaining wild-card event, so the safest bet seems to be to go with a driver who has a ton of experience running the dirt. Going with a former Chili Bowl Nationals winner in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment feels like as good of a prediction as you could hope for here.
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Martinsville
Zack's pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: The Virginia native was uncharacteristically outside the top 10 for both Martinsville races last season, but the ship rights itself this year with his first "Paperclip" win since 2015.
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Richmond
Pat's pick: Joey Logano
Why: It's kind of surprising Logano has only compiled two Richmond wins in his career, because he has been strong in just about every race since joining Team Penske in 2013. Starting with his 2014 victory there, the 2018 champ owns a 5.4 average Richmond finish over the last 13 races.
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Talladega
Zack's pick: Ryan Newman
Why: Five top 10s -- including two runner-up efforts -- in the last seven Talladega races means something. The Alabama track’s choosy nature finally chooses Newman here, marking his first Cup Series victory in four years.
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Kansas
Pat's pick: Chase Briscoe
Why: Finally, the No. 14 lands in Victory Lane at Kansas. We of course expect Briscoe to be a factor on road courses this year, but a sneaky win here could happen as well. Stewart-Haas Racing tends to run well at Kansas, and Briscoe dominated the track in the Xfinity Series last fall (pictured) for his ninth win of the year.
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Darlington
Zack's pick: Brad Keselowski
Why: The Team Penske driver has led laps in eight of his last nine Darlington starts, and that includes a Southern 500 triumph in 2018. The hard-edged South Carolina track often favors veterans, so the 37-year-old hot shoe should figure into the mix again.
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Dover
Pat's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: We'll see if it translates to his new situation, but something about Dover just clicked from the get-go for Larson, who won at the "Monster Mile" in both series he ran there in. His most recent Cup win came there in 2019, leading a career-high 154 laps at the track.
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Circuit of the Americas
Zack's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: If not for Chase Elliott’s recent road-course romps, MTJ might be holding the crown of NASCAR’s reigning road-racing ace. Five straight top-10 runs on road courses put Truex in contention again for this inaugural victory.
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Coca-Cola 600
Pat's pick: Alex Bowman
Why: Charlotte was once the stomping ground of the No. 48 Chevrolet, and this could re-spark that dominance for the track a stone's throw from Hendrick Motorsports' complex. Bowman has had more Cup success on the Roval than the oval, but his lone Xfinity Series win came at Charlotte
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Sonoma
Zack's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Speaking of underrated road racers, Rowdy certainly qualifies. He’s a two-time winner in California’s wine country and carries a five-race streak of Sonoma top 10s into this late-spring show.
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Texas All-Star Race
Zack's pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: The No. 4 driver has finished outside the top 10 at Texas just twice since the start of 2014. That span has yielded three wins, and Harvick sits due for a non-points victory as a Lone Star All-Star first.
Pat's pick: Kurt Busch
Why: The past eight Texas races, Busch has driven for two different teams and two different manufacturers — yet managed top 10s in all eight. A former Texas winner (2009), this feels like a good spot for the Chip Ganassi Racing driver to score a trophy.
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Nashville
Pat's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Rowdy's last four Xfinity Series races at Nashville: second, first, third and second. Those three losses were to Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards, respectively. Something tells me he hasn't forgotten about those, and could potentially dominate this race.
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Pocono-1
Zack's pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: Hamlin has a knack for performing well at home-state short tracks in Martinsville and Richmond, but sprawling Pocono became his winningest venue (six career wins) in 2020. Signs point to another "Tricky Triangle" triumph in the front end of the weekend doubleheader.
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Pocono-2
Pat's pick: Christopher Bell
Why: Bell notched one of his two career top fives in the opener of last season's Pocono double and — see as two Joe Gibbs Racing drivers landed in the top three in the second race — could have been headed toward another strong finish before wrecking out early. It's easy to see the 2017 Pocono Camping World Truck Series winner picking up a win in this race.
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Road America
Zack's pick: Chase Elliott
Why: Elliott has Xfinity Series experience at the Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin, road course (pictured) -- finishing fourth in both of his starts there. That background, plus the No. 9 team’s road program, should help create another opportunity at one of the 2021 schedule’s most intriguing new tracks.
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Atlanta
Pat's pick: Joey Logano
Why: Logano has long wanted to win at Atlanta, where he grew up racing Bandoleros as an adolescent. The Penske years (five top 10s, eight races) have gone much better than the Gibbs years (no top 10s, six races) here, and I think with two Georgia races this year he gets it done at one of them.
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New Hampshire
Zack's pick: Joey Logano
Why: Loudon, New Hampshire, has been home to two Logano victories, including a Cup Series first, back in 2009. Given teammate Brad Keselowski’s rout of the field here last August, some of that magic will rub off on Logano at the "Magic Mile" this time around.
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Watkins Glen
Pat's pick: Brad Keselowski
Why: With no wins to his credit, Keselowski doesn't get the recognition he perhaps deserves as one of the better road-course racers on the circuit. Battling to the finish with two of the best (one of which is arguably the best-ever) in Marcos Ambrose and Kyle Busch to three straight Watkins Glen runner-ups early last decade indicate he's more than competent on them. Here's thinking he gets it done this time.
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Indianapolis Road Course
Zack's pick: Chase Briscoe
Why: A multi-race rookie winner? Pat has the new No. 14 driver down for a Kansas breakthrough, but his road-course finesse may make an even stronger case for him at Indianapolis’ grand-prix layout, where he prevailed last year in the Xfinity Series’ inaugural (pictured).
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Michigan
Pat's pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: The "Irish Hills" of Michigan have smiled upon Happy plenty over the past few years, with Harvick landing in Victory Lane four of the past five races. It's possible he doesn't win this one, of course, but picking against him here would be bold for the sake of boldness. He's a safe bet.
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Daytona
Zack's pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: He probably won’t need a victory in the regular-season finale to seal his playoff fate, but his superspeedway talent gets a reward at the World Center of Racing. A pleasant boost into the 10-race postseason should come with it.
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Southern 500
Pat's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Busch has had exactly one bad race at Darlington over the past decade, and the 2008 spring race winner, somehow, has yet to win a Southern 500 crown. This feels like a good spot for Rowdy to pick up another crown jewel, in a race JGR is typically strong in.
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Richmond
Zack's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: So much for the short-track void Truex carried for so many years in his Cup Series career. He hasn’t finished outside the top three in the last four Richmond races, and that sky-high trend continues in the Virginia capital city.
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Bristol Night Race
Pat's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: Calling it now: This one is going to be a thrill ride to the end, featuring a beating-and-banging sprint to the finish between Larson and Kyle Busch. The Hendrick Motorsports driver finished runner-up to the Busch brothers in a pair of Bristol races in 2018, but this time he gets the advantage.
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Las Vegas
Zack's pick: Joey Logano
Why: The Team Penske driver has led at least 10 laps in eight of the last 10 Las Vegas races, a stretch that includes two victories. Finding the No. 22 atop the scoring pylon again at day’s end shouldn’t be a surprise.
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Talladega
Pat's pick: Alex Bowman
Why: Bowman might've missed his chance to bring the No. 88 back to Victory Lane in Alabama, but let's not pretend the incumbent of the No. 48 didn't have success there, as well (Jimmie Johnson had two wins.) Look for the 2019 spring runner-up Bowman to work with his teammates to run up front — but for him to take the checkered.
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Charlotte Roval
Zack's pick: Chase Elliott
Why: Three in a row at the raucous Roval? Mark it down for the defending Cup Series champ, who has found a way to largely escape the track’s treachery -- even winning after nosing into a tire barrier in his 2019 rally.
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Texas
Pat's pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: The 2018 spring Texas Xfinity Series winner has also been sneaky good at the track in the Cup Series. Apart from a 37th-place finish in the 2019 spring race — in which he led 45 laps — Blaney has a 5.2 average finish in his last six races there.
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Kansas
Zack's pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: Kansas’ all-time leader in the laps-led category gets another triumph here, which would move Harvick atop another list in the track’s history. He’d top all drivers — active and retired — with four Kansas wins.
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Martinsville
Pat's pick: Brad Keselowski
Why: When you lead 446 of 500 laps en route to winning a race at a specific track, as Keselowski did in 2019, you're pretty much by default going to be a favorite there for a while. He has been nothing short of sensational there his entire career — save for a few clunkers in 2014-15 — so look for Kes to pick up another grandfather clock this weekend and potentially another shot at title No. 2.
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Phoenix
Zack's pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: Hamlin’s the last driver to win the season finale without also claiming the Cup Series championship. It happened in 2013, the last year before the “elimination era” of NASCAR’s playoffs. Expect it to count for more this year with a long-awaited title ring.