Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Big hopes for Bowman, Keselowski at Las Vegas

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: In the last seven Las Vegas starts, Truex has two wins and five top fives. Over the past six races there, he has the second-most points and an average finish of 6.7. Outside of Watkins Glen, this is Truex's best track left in the regular season. It might be early to say that, but with the slew of road courses and other strongholds he has, it's worth noting as we plot starts.

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 13-2

Fastlane forecast: Harvick has two wins at Las Vegas. He has three top fives and five top 10s in his last six starts at the 1.5-mile track. Over that same stretch, he has the third-most points at the track – which makes for an enticing play. The 2014 champ will be a solid start for the next few weeks given his Phoenix and Atlanta histories as well.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 13-2

Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas stands as Logano's best 1.5-mile track by average finish (8.4). He has two victories here, including one last spring. Prior to a 14th-place finish in the playoff race last fall, the 2018 champ had a streak of nine straight top 10s with six top fives in that stretch at the track. Over the last six Vegas races, he has the most points at Las Vegas – an average of 45.7.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott led the most laps last year at Las Vegas and nabbed three of the four stage wins but finished outside the top 20 in both races. The underlying numbers show a driver who caught some bad breaks in those two races, as Elliott had the fourth-fastest car on green-flag speed in the first race and the second-fastest car in the playoff race. He's a solid option based on those numbers. I like Phoenix a little more for my next use, though.

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 13-2

Fastlane forecast: I've slow played Keselowski to start the year because of the schedule, but that ends now. The 2012 champion has three wins at Las Vegas. Prior to last year's 13th-place finish in the playoff race, he had a streak of 10 straight top-seven finishes here with seven top fives in that span. His 5.3 average finish over the last six Vegas races is the best in the field.

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 11-1

Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas is Blaney's best regular-season track with six top-seven finishes in nine starts and an average finish of 9.7. Those six top sevens have come in the last eight runs there. He was leading the spring race in 2020 before a late caution jumbled everything up. It has been a slow start to 2021 for Blaney, but this is the spot he can turn it around at.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: The two-time Cup champion heads to his home track coming off his first top 10 of the season. He may not have racked up a number of Cup wins at Las Vegas – he has just one – but he fared well there with the sixth-most points over the last six races there. That said, there is a thought to slow play him until he and crew chief Ben Beshore find a rhythm together.

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas stands as Larson's third-best track based on average finish (10.8). He has five top 10s, including three top-three finishes, in his last six starts there. He has averaged 37 points per race over his last five races at Las Vegas. The catch? Phoenix and Atlanta are solid tracks for him and he's the favorite for the Bristol Dirt Race, so the uses are racking up fast.

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman's last four Las Vegas starts have all produced top-13 finishes – an average finish of 8.8. Last year, he had the sixth-fastest car on green flag speed in the first race (and was running down Ryan Blaney late before a caution jumbled up strategies) and the third-fastest car in the playoff race. I remain bullish on a strong season for Bowman.

SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats 


Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron is fresh off a win at Miami, and while his Las Vegas history has not been super productive (one top 10 in six starts), he is still a young driver coming into his own. The pairing of Byron and Rudy Fugle clicked on the Cup level faster than anyone could have imagined. Call it a hunch: Byron will be in the mix again Sunday.

SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats 


Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 30-1

Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto was the only driver to nab top-five finishes in both Las Vegas races last year. In fact, he was the runner-up in both races and averaged 36.5 points – though, it should be noted he scored only three stage points in those races and the results came off strategy plays that paid off. He's an intriguing thought for this race.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats 


Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 125-1

Fastlane forecast: Buescher was one of the surprises from the Miami race, as he led 57 laps and scored a stage win. While he ultimately faded to a 19th-place finish, there is no denying the Roush camp had intermediate speed we haven't seen in a while. Buescher has one top 10 and four top 15s in his last six Las Vegas starts.

SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats 


JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: Looking for an against-the-grain play? This could be the ticket. In the last two spring races at Las Vegas, Stenhouse has finished sixth and third with an average of 36.5 points in those races. He hasn't fared as well in the last two fall races – an average finish of 24.5 and 25 total points.

STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats 


Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Staying away from the points leader? Are you nuts, RJ? Perhaps, but this game is all about maximizing your uses and Las Vegas has been a pretty nondescript track for Hamlin in his career. He has three top fives in 18 starts and just one such finish in his last eight starts there. Phoenix, Martinsville and Richmond are better spots to use Hamlin in the next month.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats 


Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: I realize Busch is the most recent Vegas winner, but let's keep in mind that victory was the result of a strategy play gone right, not sheer speed - he had the 12th-fastest car on green flag speed. Outside of that win, he has two top fives and five top 10s in 21 starts there and five finishes outside the top 20 in his last seven races there.

STAY AWAY FROM: Michael McDowell | View stats 


Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 125-1

Fastlane forecast: With three top 10s to start the year – the latest coming at Miami – McDowell could develop into a trendy pick. We need to see more on intermediates, though, as he has had superspeedway and road success in the past. In 14 Las Vegas starts, McDowell has just one top-20 finish.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson/William Byron; 
Garage:

 Joey Logano

Just missed the lineup: One of Larson or Byron and Ryan Blaney. I want to see how heavily owned Byron is before deciding for sure if that's a play I want to make. Will likely be a decision I make a little before green flag time.


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.