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Power Rankings: Kyle Larson looking like a title favorite as Bristol Dirt Race looms
By Pat DeCola | Published: March 23, 2021 21
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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 NASCAR Cup Series drivers after Atlanta Motor Speedway and before the Bristol Dirt Race.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
20. Ryan Newman (Not ranked last week)
Season-high: 19
Season-low: Out
Comment: Newman continues to be a top-20 driver — his average finish is 20.7 — and a 13th-place showing at Atlanta gives that team a little bit of a much-needed boost. One of just a few Cup stars to have raced at Eldora, it wouldn't shock the world to see him sneak out a win this weekend given his dirt expertise.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
19. Ryan Preece (--)
Season-high: 15
Season-low: Out
Comment: Preece's early-season successes now appear to be more in the outlier category than the norm, but he could be in for a nice weekend ahead. While his experience is limited with dirt, his short-track skill remains a resource.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
18. Bubba Wallace (--)
Season-high: 13
Season-low: Out
Comment: Back to back 16th-place finishes are nothing to write home about, but solid momentum for a new team looking to establish footing. A previous winner at Eldora, this could be the weekend for Bubba's big breakout with 23XI Racing.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-1)
Season-high: 16
Season-low: Out
Comment: Stenhouse continues to knock on the door of the top 10 and it's likely he cracks through this weekend at Bristol. He's one of the more established dirt racers in the field and Bristol has long stood as one of his better tracks, with six top 10s and a runner-up in 2016.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
16. Chris Buescher (+1)
Season-high: 16
Season-low: Out
Comment: Buescher stands as the No. 12 seed in the projected playoffs at the moment, sandwiched between Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch ... just like we all predicted. He's had some good runs at Bristol in the past as well, with a top five in 2016 and a top 10 last summer.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
15. Kurt Busch (-4)
Season-high: 6
Season-low: 15
Comment: Busch has driven better and looked much faster than his 17.8 average finish and two top 10s this season, so it's hard to see him falling further from here. As a longtime master of Bristol (six wins), it'll be interesting to see how/if that skill translates to the dirt.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
14. Michael McDowell (-2)
Season-high: 10
Season-low: Out
Comment: Feels like we can comfortably say that McDowell might not light the world on fire this year, but he's certainly in a top-20 car and his provisional playoff spot looks plenty safe. Interestingly, he has just one top 10 and two top 15s at Bristol in his career, and they each came last year.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
13. Alex Bowman (+2)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 15
Comment: Bowman notched his first top five of the season at Atlanta in another strong showing for Hendrick Motorsports' new-found speed. A former Chili Bowl participant, perhaps the dirt will help him pick up his first Bristol top 10 since 2018.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
12. Kyle Busch (+2)
Season-high: 6
Season-low: 14
Comment: Between his top five and Camping World Truck Series win, Atlanta was a nice mojo-building weekend for Rowdy. He'll be a lot of fun to watch at Bristol, a track where arguably no other active driver has been better.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
11. Austin Dillon (+2)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 16
Comment: Dillon's current 14.0 average finish would easily mark a career high for him after another strong showing at Atlanta. While he has just three top 10s at Bristol in 14 starts, he was sixth in this race last year (albeit not on dirt.) He won the inaugural race at Eldora in 2013, so keep an eye on him this weekend.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10. Chase Elliott (-4)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 10
Comment: Sunday was obviously the low point, but Atlanta's 38th-place finish marks the fourth race in the last five Elliott has placed outside the top 10. There's little reason to worry just yet — especially given how strong Hendrick has looked — but the results are way off for the champ so far.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
9. Christopher Bell (--)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 16
Comment: Bell already has a win, but that was no fluke — the sophomore's 12.3 average finish is ninth-best in the sport. Unquestionably one of the favorites this weekend given his dirt prowess, Bell might wind up being the season's first two-time winner.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
8. William Byron (--)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 18
Comment: Byron is riding easily the best four-race stretch of his career, with a win at Miami followed by three straight eighth-place finishes. You can bet he's spending plenty of time simulating his laps around Bristol's dirt, so expect him to keep it rolling Sunday.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
7. Brad Keselowski (-5)
Season-high: 2
Season-low: 7
Comment: Sunday was Keselowski's first bad race, and it came at one of his best tracks. The defending winner of this race -- again, not on dirt -- Keselowski has led 40 or more laps in each of the last four Bristol contests.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
6. Kevin Harvick (+1)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 7
Comment: So, there's certainly some reason for slight concern here — the No. 4 team is off from where it was last year. That said, Harvick's current 8.5 average finish, while off from last year's 7.3, would still mark the second-best effort in his career. He's the most recent winner at Bristol, a track that he has 20 top 10s at.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
5. Ryan Blaney (+5)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 15
Comment: It certainly hasn't been a smooth start, but Blaney now stands as Team Penske's only winner. That's also three straight top 10s for him heading into Bristol, a track at which he picked up three straight top 10s from 2018-19.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
4. Joey Logano (--)
Season-high: 3
Season-low: 4
Comment: Logano finished off the pace and didn't lead any laps ... but was once again a factor in the finish, as he has been all season. A two-time Bristol winner (2014, '15), Logano has been held out of the top 10 there the past three races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
3. Martin Truex Jr. (--)
Season-high: 3
Season-low: 7
Comment: Somewhat surprisingly, Truex is on pace for the best average finish of his career, at 9.3, and it feels like that team hasn't fully hit its stride yet. Expect that number to take a hit this weekend at Bristol, where Truex has almost never finished well (three top 10s in 30 starts) and faces a dirt unknown.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
2. Kyle Larson (+3)
Season-high: 2
Season-low: 14
Comment: If you wanted to call Larson the overall title favorite at the moment, I wouldn't stop you. He's been lights out in his NASCAR return thus far, and it's hard to see how the 2021 Chili Bowl winner and dirt master isn't the overall race favorite this weekend, too.
RELATED: New Larson gear
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
1. Denny Hamlin (--)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 4
Comment: The road to the title right now, however, goes through Hamlin, as his start to 2021 has been simply dazzling despite his lack of a win. A recent winner at Bristol (2019 Night Race), I wouldn't rule out the season's best driver even if his dirt background is not extensive.