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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Say hey to Ricky for Talladega
By RJ Kraft | Published: April 23, 2021 20
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Let's be clear about something, I'm not using Hamlin. I'll stack the bonus picks with him, but I'm already down to five uses with him and I'm not burning another at a superspeedway when I want him at tracks where speed is at more of a premium. With that said, I understand the pull to deploy him. He has won three of the last nine superspeedway races and has eight top fives in the last 10 – the next closest driver has four in the same span.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Let's be clear about something, I'm not using Hamlin. I'll stack the bonus picks with him, but I'm already down to five uses with him and I'm not burning another at a superspeedway when I want him at tracks where speed is at more of a premium. With that said, I understand the pull to deploy him. He has won three of the last nine superspeedway races and has eight top fives in the last 10 – the next closest driver has four in the same span.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: If anyone needs a reminder of Logano's prowess as a superspeedway racer, flash back to the Daytona 500 in February where he held the front for 25 of the final 26 laps – but not the one that pays out big. He has three wins at Talladega and a knack for finding the lead position at the 2.66-mile superspeedway. Another consideration here is he doesn't have a ton of standout tracks left to save him for, so he's firmly in the garage mix for me.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: If anyone needs a reminder of Logano's prowess as a superspeedway racer, flash back to the Daytona 500 in February where he held the front for 25 of the final 26 laps – but not the one that pays out big. He has three wins at Talladega and a knack for finding the lead position at the 2.66-mile superspeedway. Another consideration here is he doesn't have a ton of standout tracks left to save him for, so he's firmly in the garage mix for me.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last 10 superspeedway races, Elliott has the third-most points – a trend you'll find with some of his teammates. If you zero in on Talladega, Elliott has the second-most points there over the last four years, including a win in the 2019 spring race and three top 10s. The question to weigh: Is this play worth eschewing a road-course use this summer? If you have eight uses, it's tempting. Anything below that, I'd save.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last 10 superspeedway races, Elliott has the third-most points – a trend you'll find with some of his teammates. If you zero in on Talladega, Elliott has the second-most points there over the last four years, including a win in the 2019 spring race and three top 10s. The question to weigh: Is this play worth eschewing a road-course use this summer? If you have eight uses, it's tempting. Anything below that, I'd save.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has won two of the last three races at Talladega, but the overall results have been feast or famine for YRB. In the 11 starts without wins at 'Dega, he has one top five and two top 10s. If you go with a play in the Penske camp, I like Logano a little more because Blaney is shaping up to be the most well-rounded Penske play on speed across all track types.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has won two of the last three races at Talladega, but the overall results have been feast or famine for YRB. In the 11 starts without wins at 'Dega, he has one top five and two top 10s. If you go with a play in the Penske camp, I like Logano a little more because Blaney is shaping up to be the most well-rounded Penske play on speed across all track types.
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Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman stealing victory away in the closing laps at Richmond took this play from being a sneaky thought to a likely popular one. That said, I'm sticking with it because I haven't used him much to start with. He has the fourth-most points at Talladega in the last four races and the sixth-most points in the last 10 superspeedway races. He rides a three-race streak of top 10s in the spring Talladega race into Sunday's event.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman stealing victory away in the closing laps at Richmond took this play from being a sneaky thought to a likely popular one. That said, I'm sticking with it because I haven't used him much to start with. He has the fourth-most points at Talladega in the last four races and the sixth-most points in the last 10 superspeedway races. He rides a three-race streak of top 10s in the spring Talladega race into Sunday's event.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has never won at Talladega but has top 10s in more than half his starts (21 in 40 starts). In recent years, the spring race has treated him far better with five straight top 10s in that race, including a runner-up finish in 2018. While he has not scored a top 10 or more than 25 points in the last six 2021 races, this is a good spot to plug him in based on history.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has never won at Talladega but has top 10s in more than half his starts (21 in 40 starts). In recent years, the spring race has treated him far better with five straight top 10s in that race, including a runner-up finish in 2018. While he has not scored a top 10 or more than 25 points in the last six 2021 races, this is a good spot to plug him in based on history.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse's 12.7 average finish at Talladega is second best among active full-time drivers. His tendency to be aggressive in this type of racing cuts both ways – with good finishes (a win in 2017, nine top 10s in 15 starts) but also wrecks (exited early in three of the last seven here). He has been sneakily consistent to open the season with a 13.1 average finish so far.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse's 12.7 average finish at Talladega is second best among active full-time drivers. His tendency to be aggressive in this type of racing cuts both ways – with good finishes (a win in 2017, nine top 10s in 15 starts) but also wrecks (exited early in three of the last seven here). He has been sneakily consistent to open the season with a 13.1 average finish so far.
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Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola nabbed his first top 10 of the year at Richmond and will look to carry that momentum to a Talladega track that has been pretty good to him of late. Prior to an early crash last fall, Almirola had a run of eight straight top 10s at the Alabama track, including a playoff win in 2018. His 13.3 average finish in the last four there is seventh best.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola nabbed his first top 10 of the year at Richmond and will look to carry that momentum to a Talladega track that has been pretty good to him of late. Prior to an early crash last fall, Almirola had a run of eight straight top 10s at the Alabama track, including a playoff win in 2018. His 13.3 average finish in the last four there is seventh best.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Longtime readers will know Newman is one of my favorite superspeedway plays. He'll ride in the back for the first 90 percent of the race, pass on stage points and then, with five to go, he’s in the top five. Newman has five top 10s in his last seven 'Dega starts, including two runner-up finishes. He has the sixth-most points in the last four races here.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Longtime readers will know Newman is one of my favorite superspeedway plays. He'll ride in the back for the first 90 percent of the race, pass on stage points and then, with five to go, he’s in the top five. Newman has five top 10s in his last seven 'Dega starts, including two runner-up finishes. He has the sixth-most points in the last four races here.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Preece | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 37 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Granted it's a small sample size of just four Talladega races, but Preece has the best average finish among Sunday’s field there at 11.5 – with two top 10s in four starts. He has never wrecked out of a race at Talladega. In nine superspeedway starts, he has four top 10s and five top 15s.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 37 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Granted it's a small sample size of just four Talladega races, but Preece has the best average finish among Sunday’s field there at 11.5 – with two top 10s in four starts. He has never wrecked out of a race at Talladega. In nine superspeedway starts, he has four top 10s and five top 15s.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: In two Cup races at Talladega, Reddick has a stage win, one top 10 and an average of 30.5 points. While driving in the Xfinity ranks, he was also more consistent at Talladega, not Daytona. The second-year driver has had some peaks in 2021 (three top 10s) and valleys (six finishes of 20th or worse).
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: In two Cup races at Talladega, Reddick has a stage win, one top 10 and an average of 30.5 points. While driving in the Xfinity ranks, he was also more consistent at Talladega, not Daytona. The second-year driver has had some peaks in 2021 (three top 10s) and valleys (six finishes of 20th or worse).
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last five superspeedway races, only Hamlin, Blaney and Elliott have scored more points. That’s right, Buescher has the fourth-most points on superspeedways. He has three top 10s in that stretch – one being his lone top 10 at Talladega. Those numbers would be even better if not for being ruled to have passed below the yellow line in the fall race, which dropped him to 22nd - from a top-10 finish.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last five superspeedway races, only Hamlin, Blaney and Elliott have scored more points. That’s right, Buescher has the fourth-most points on superspeedways. He has three top 10s in that stretch – one being his lone top 10 at Talladega. Those numbers would be even better if not for being ruled to have passed below the yellow line in the fall race, which dropped him to 22nd - from a top-10 finish.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Of the superspeedway tracks, Jones has fared much better at Talladega. He has three top 10s in eight starts and nabbed top fives in both races there last year. The early returns in his new ride at Petty have been up (two top 10s) and down (four finishes outside the top 20).
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Of the superspeedway tracks, Jones has fared much better at Talladega. He has three top 10s in eight starts and nabbed top fives in both races there last year. The early returns in his new ride at Petty have been up (two top 10s) and down (four finishes outside the top 20).
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Corey LaJoie | View stats
Spire Motorsports, No. 7 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last 10 superspeedway races, LaJoie has scored the 13th-most points – more than Newman and the Busch brothers. At Talladega, he has just one top 10 in six starts, but one of those other runs was an 11th-place showing. He ran well at the first superspeedway of 2021 with a top 10 in the Daytona 500.
Spire Motorsports, No. 7 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last 10 superspeedway races, LaJoie has scored the 13th-most points – more than Newman and the Busch brothers. At Talladega, he has just one top 10 in six starts, but one of those other runs was an 11th-place showing. He ran well at the first superspeedway of 2021 with a top 10 in the Daytona 500.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Most Fantasy Live players have likely used Truex quite a bit out of the gate, and those results have helped your squads. He has several solid tracks coming up – Darlington, Dover and Charlotte as well as five road courses still ahead. As for his superspeedway stats – no wins, five top fives and 13 top 10s in 64 starts. At Talladega, he hasn’t finished better than 20th in his last nine starts.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Most Fantasy Live players have likely used Truex quite a bit out of the gate, and those results have helped your squads. He has several solid tracks coming up – Darlington, Dover and Charlotte as well as five road courses still ahead. As for his superspeedway stats – no wins, five top fives and 13 top 10s in 64 starts. At Talladega, he hasn’t finished better than 20th in his last nine starts.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson falls in the same boat as Truex for me. I love the uses of him coming up at Darlington and Dover. Kansas and Charlotte are intriguing use options given his strength on the 1.5-milers in 2021. One place he has not been particularly strong is Talladega, with two top 10s and an average finish of 22.2 in 12 starts.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson falls in the same boat as Truex for me. I love the uses of him coming up at Darlington and Dover. Kansas and Charlotte are intriguing use options given his strength on the 1.5-milers in 2021. One place he has not been particularly strong is Talladega, with two top 10s and an average finish of 22.2 in 12 starts.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: This is a sit based solely on how valuable Byron has become. He is riding a streak where he has scored at least 36 points in the last seven races. His versatility in results on short tracks and intermediates, plus a serviceable road-course record, have me believing a use is better served elsewhere even though he finished fourth at Talladega last fall.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: This is a sit based solely on how valuable Byron has become. He is riding a streak where he has scored at least 36 points in the last seven races. His versatility in results on short tracks and intermediates, plus a serviceable road-course record, have me believing a use is better served elsewhere even though he finished fourth at Talladega last fall.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: As good as the Daytona 500 winner has been at Daytona is as bad as he has been at Talladega. He has one top five/top 10 in 20 starts at the 2.66-mile superspeedway and nine early exits from a race there. Uses probably aren't an issue, but don't just flock to him because he won the Daytona 500. There are different sleepers to consider over him.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: As good as the Daytona 500 winner has been at Daytona is as bad as he has been at Talladega. He has one top five/top 10 in 20 starts at the 2.66-mile superspeedway and nine early exits from a race there. Uses probably aren't an issue, but don't just flock to him because he won the Daytona 500. There are different sleepers to consider over him.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Newman; Garage: Joey Logano.
Just missed the cut: Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, Erik Jones and Corey LaJoie.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 2 p.m. ET on FOX.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, Erik Jones and Corey LaJoie.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 2 p.m. ET on FOX.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.