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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Bullish on Byron at Kansas
By RJ Kraft | Published: April 30, 2021 19
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has won two of the last three Kansas races, including a victory in 2019 when he started 23rd. Starting spot would be my lone concern with a use -- he will line up 20th and hasn't had to start that far back at a non-superspeedway all year. That said, he has the third-most points on 1.5-milers this year. I'd have Darlington, the second Atlanta and New Hampshire atop my priority plays for Hamlin -- and then Kansas.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has won two of the last three Kansas races, including a victory in 2019 when he started 23rd. Starting spot would be my lone concern with a use -- he will line up 20th and hasn't had to start that far back at a non-superspeedway all year. That said, he has the third-most points on 1.5-milers this year. I'd have Darlington, the second Atlanta and New Hampshire atop my priority plays for Hamlin -- and then Kansas.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex swept the 2017 races at Kansas and has had one finish outside the top 10 there since. While both his 2021 wins have come with the 750-HP package at tracks 1 mile or less, he does have the fourth-most points on 1.5-milers this season. A use here is fine, but I'd prioritize Dover and Charlotte in the coming weeks over Kansas with Darlington also a consideration.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex swept the 2017 races at Kansas and has had one finish outside the top 10 there since. While both his 2021 wins have come with the 750-HP package at tracks 1 mile or less, he does have the fourth-most points on 1.5-milers this season. A use here is fine, but I'd prioritize Dover and Charlotte in the coming weeks over Kansas with Darlington also a consideration.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 17-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Talladega is no slouch at Kansas. Keselowski has two wins there with the most recent coming in 2019. He has three top-four finishes in his last four starts there, giving him the fourth-most points in that stretch. His 1.5-mile stats in 2021 have been up-and-down with a strong run at Vegas headlining his position in eighth in points for those races.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 17-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Talladega is no slouch at Kansas. Keselowski has two wins there with the most recent coming in 2019. He has three top-four finishes in his last four starts there, giving him the fourth-most points in that stretch. His 1.5-mile stats in 2021 have been up-and-down with a strong run at Vegas headlining his position in eighth in points for those races.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The front-row starter for Sunday continues to serve up strong points days with an average of 41.5 points per race over the last eight races and no single race total lower than 36 points. He also has scored the second-most points on 1.5-milers this year. Kansas has been a pretty good track for him of late with three straight top 10s and the ninth-most points in that stretch.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The front-row starter for Sunday continues to serve up strong points days with an average of 41.5 points per race over the last eight races and no single race total lower than 36 points. He also has scored the second-most points on 1.5-milers this year. Kansas has been a pretty good track for him of late with three straight top 10s and the ninth-most points in that stretch.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Kansas has been an up-and-down track for Blaney. He has three top fives and six top 10s there in 12 starts. His last six starts there have seen him nab just two top 10s and four finishes of 20th or worse. However, he continues to be one of the best on 1.5-milers as a whole with the fifth-most points on that track type in 2021 -- an average of 38 points per race.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Kansas has been an up-and-down track for Blaney. He has three top fives and six top 10s there in 12 starts. His last six starts there have seen him nab just two top 10s and four finishes of 20th or worse. However, he continues to be one of the best on 1.5-milers as a whole with the fifth-most points on that track type in 2021 -- an average of 38 points per race.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: For all that has been said about Harvick's lack of time out front, he is still tied for seventh in points in Fantasy Live through 10 races. Kansas has been a solid track for him with three wins in 30 starts. He has the third-most points over the last four races at Kansas but only the 11th-most points on 1.5-milers this season. I like Darlington and Dover more as plays, but given his early woes, we have unanticipated uses to work with.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: For all that has been said about Harvick's lack of time out front, he is still tied for seventh in points in Fantasy Live through 10 races. Kansas has been a solid track for him with three wins in 30 starts. He has the third-most points over the last four races at Kansas but only the 11th-most points on 1.5-milers this season. I like Darlington and Dover more as plays, but given his early woes, we have unanticipated uses to work with.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: After a rip-roaring start to his Hendrick tenure, Larson has cooled off in a big way with three finishes outside the top 15 in his last four races. His last-place result at Talladega will see him start in the back half of the field. But if the speed he has shown on 1.5-milers so far is there, he will be flying up through the field. He has the most points on that track type this year -- an average of 49.7 -- and three top 10s in his last four Kansas runs.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: After a rip-roaring start to his Hendrick tenure, Larson has cooled off in a big way with three finishes outside the top 15 in his last four races. His last-place result at Talladega will see him start in the back half of the field. But if the speed he has shown on 1.5-milers so far is there, he will be flying up through the field. He has the most points on that track type this year -- an average of 49.7 -- and three top 10s in his last four Kansas runs.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: There's good and bad with the reigning champ. The good: He has the most points at Kansas over the last four races, he won there in 2018, and it’s his third-best track left in the regular season. Now for the bad: He is tied for 18th in points on 1.5-milers this season -- for all we've made of Harvick’s issues, he has more points. Something to be aware of.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: There's good and bad with the reigning champ. The good: He has the most points at Kansas over the last four races, he won there in 2018, and it’s his third-best track left in the regular season. Now for the bad: He is tied for 18th in points on 1.5-milers this season -- for all we've made of Harvick’s issues, he has more points. Something to be aware of.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Would it surprise you to know the two-time champion has the sixth-most fantasy points on 1.5-mile tracks this year? That's a bonafide fact, and he ranks higher than Keselowski, Harvick, Logano and Elliott in that stat. In the last three races at Kansas, he has scored the sixth-most points there. Over the last 12 races there, he has finished worse than 11th once.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Would it surprise you to know the two-time champion has the sixth-most fantasy points on 1.5-mile tracks this year? That's a bonafide fact, and he ranks higher than Keselowski, Harvick, Logano and Elliott in that stat. In the last three races at Kansas, he has scored the sixth-most points there. Over the last 12 races there, he has finished worse than 11th once.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman can't seem to string together back-to-back solid results this season. Just look at his last five races dating back to Atlanta: third, 22nd, 34th, win at Richmond and 38th. It has been a see-saw season so far for him. Kansas is an opportunity for him with five top 10s in his last seven starts there and the eighth-most points over the last three races there.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman can't seem to string together back-to-back solid results this season. Just look at his last five races dating back to Atlanta: third, 22nd, 34th, win at Richmond and 38th. It has been a see-saw season so far for him. Kansas is an opportunity for him with five top 10s in his last seven starts there and the eighth-most points over the last three races there.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell nabbed a top 10 in the fall race as his rookie season was coming to a close. He has been putting together solid runs of late with two top 10s in his last three races and an average of 31.3 points in that stretch. He has the 14th-most points on 1.5-milers this year but, dating back to last season, the 12th-most points over the last five races on 1.5-milers.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell nabbed a top 10 in the fall race as his rookie season was coming to a close. He has been putting together solid runs of late with two top 10s in his last three races and an average of 31.3 points in that stretch. He has the 14th-most points on 1.5-milers this year but, dating back to last season, the 12th-most points over the last five races on 1.5-milers.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has notched three top 10s in his last four races -- posting an average of 27.8 points. In three starts at Kansas, he has one top 10, two top 15s and an average finish of 15.7. In three Xfinity starts here, he never finished outside the top five. He'll line up with a solid starting spot Sunday.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has notched three top 10s in his last four races -- posting an average of 27.8 points. In three starts at Kansas, he has one top 10, two top 15s and an average finish of 15.7. In three Xfinity starts here, he never finished outside the top five. He'll line up with a solid starting spot Sunday.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: This sleeper pick flies in the face of his Kansas record (no top 10s in 12 starts) and only scoring the 18th-most points so far on 1.5-milers. The fact is after a sluggish start to 2021, DiBenedetto has rebounded with two straight top 10s and six straight top 15s -- posting an average of 29.8 points in that stretch of six runs.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: This sleeper pick flies in the face of his Kansas record (no top 10s in 12 starts) and only scoring the 18th-most points so far on 1.5-milers. The fact is after a sluggish start to 2021, DiBenedetto has rebounded with two straight top 10s and six straight top 15s -- posting an average of 29.8 points in that stretch of six runs.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher has the ninth-most points on 1.5-milers so far in 2021. That includes a stage win at Miami, a top 10 at Atlanta and an average of 30.3 points in those races. In 10 starts at Kansas, he has two top 10s and three top 15s in his last seven starts there.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher has the ninth-most points on 1.5-milers so far in 2021. That includes a stage win at Miami, a top 10 at Atlanta and an average of 30.3 points in those races. In 10 starts at Kansas, he has two top 10s and three top 15s in his last seven starts there.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the most recent winner at Kansas and has three Cup wins there in his career. The overall picture, though, is one of inconsistency with six finishes outside the top 10 in his last 10 starts there. There's also his issues on 1.5-milers in 2021, as he has the 16th-most points -- Buescher, Ryan Newman and Michael McDowell have more points on 1.5-milers.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the most recent winner at Kansas and has three Cup wins there in his career. The overall picture, though, is one of inconsistency with six finishes outside the top 10 in his last 10 starts there. There's also his issues on 1.5-milers in 2021, as he has the 16th-most points -- Buescher, Ryan Newman and Michael McDowell have more points on 1.5-milers.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch is right behind Logano in points on 1.5-milers in 2021 as he ranks 17th. He owns just four top fives at Kansas but has run better there of late with five of his 12 career top 10s there coming in the last seven races. The worrisome 2021 factoid for me is the 2004 champion is on a seven-race run where he has scored no more than 24 points in a race and finished no better than 13th in that stretch.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch is right behind Logano in points on 1.5-milers in 2021 as he ranks 17th. He owns just four top fives at Kansas but has run better there of late with five of his 12 career top 10s there coming in the last seven races. The worrisome 2021 factoid for me is the 2004 champion is on a seven-race run where he has scored no more than 24 points in a race and finished no better than 13th in that stretch.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones rides into this weekend's race at Kansas with five top-seven finishes in his last six starts there. However, that was from his time in the JGR camp, and the early returns in his new ride at Petty have been very mixed. He did nab a top 10 at Las Vegas, but he finished 24th or worse at Atlanta and Miami.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones rides into this weekend's race at Kansas with five top-seven finishes in his last six starts there. However, that was from his time in the JGR camp, and the early returns in his new ride at Petty have been very mixed. He did nab a top 10 at Las Vegas, but he finished 24th or worse at Atlanta and Miami.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch; Garage: Denny Hamlin/Kyle Larson. The garage decision will come down to how much risk I want to take on with a Hamlin vs. Larson use.
Just missed the cut: Martin Truex Jr. (usage concerns), Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman .
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Martin Truex Jr. (usage concerns), Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman .
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.