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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: High-line ride with Reddick at Darlington
By RJ Kraft | Published: May 7, 2021 19
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has three wins at Darlington. In last year's three races there, he scored the second-most points and averaged 43.3 points. At tracks where he has made more than two starts, Darlington is where he has his best average finish – 7.5 – and he has posted nine top fives and 13 top 10s in 17 starts. Simply put, this is a must-use spot for the points leader.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has three wins at Darlington. In last year's three races there, he scored the second-most points and averaged 43.3 points. At tracks where he has made more than two starts, Darlington is where he has his best average finish – 7.5 – and he has posted nine top fives and 13 top 10s in 17 starts. Simply put, this is a must-use spot for the points leader.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has one win at Darlington and his 11.8 average finish stands as his third-best regular-season track left (only Watkins Glen and Dover are better). In last year's Darlington races, the 2017 champion scored the fourth-most points – an average of 39.7 points. This race will use the 750-HP package – the same package that was run for Truex's two wins in 2021 and three of his four best points days this season.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has one win at Darlington and his 11.8 average finish stands as his third-best regular-season track left (only Watkins Glen and Dover are better). In last year's Darlington races, the 2017 champion scored the fourth-most points – an average of 39.7 points. This race will use the 750-HP package – the same package that was run for Truex's two wins in 2021 and three of his four best points days this season.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: In six starts at Darlington, Larson has finished outside the top 10 just once. In his last four starts there, he has finished outside the top three just once. Running against the wall here was tailor-made for Larson. For all that has been said about Homestead, this is his best active track on the circuit by average finish (6.7) and a well-planned use of him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: In six starts at Darlington, Larson has finished outside the top 10 just once. In his last four starts there, he has finished outside the top three just once. Running against the wall here was tailor-made for Larson. For all that has been said about Homestead, this is his best active track on the circuit by average finish (6.7) and a well-planned use of him.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has three wins at Darlington – with two of those coming last year. He won the 400-mile event in May and the Southern 500 in 2020 to average a series-best 44.3 points in the three races here last year. He has only finished outside the top five here just once in his last 10 starts. After last week's promising runner-up finish, I expect Harvick to have another solid run this weekend.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has three wins at Darlington – with two of those coming last year. He won the 400-mile event in May and the Southern 500 in 2020 to average a series-best 44.3 points in the three races here last year. He has only finished outside the top five here just once in his last 10 starts. After last week's promising runner-up finish, I expect Harvick to have another solid run this weekend.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 17-2
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has one win at Darlington and three top-five finishes in his last five starts there. In last year's three races, he had the sixth-most points at the track. Based on average finish, it's his best track left in the regular season. He also comes into this race on the pole and with two straight top fives so he carries a lot of momentum.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 17-2
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has one win at Darlington and three top-five finishes in his last five starts there. In last year's three races, he had the sixth-most points at the track. Based on average finish, it's his best track left in the regular season. He also comes into this race on the pole and with two straight top fives so he carries a lot of momentum.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Kansas has just one win at Darlington but he has consistently been a top-10 driver there in his career (12 in 18 starts). In last year's races there, he scored the 10th-most points. The two-time champion has performed better with the 550-HP as opposed to the 750-HP package, but he is most certainly a threat to nab another victory.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Kansas has just one win at Darlington but he has consistently been a top-10 driver there in his career (12 in 18 starts). In last year's races there, he scored the 10th-most points. The two-time champion has performed better with the 550-HP as opposed to the 750-HP package, but he is most certainly a threat to nab another victory.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Thankfully for Logano this race will utilize the 750-HP package and not the 550-HP package he has struggled with this season. With the 750-HP rules package, the Penske driver has not scored fewer than 33 points in a race and averages 48.8 points per race with that rules package. The 2018 champion had the seventh-most points at Darlington last year with two top-six finishes.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Thankfully for Logano this race will utilize the 750-HP package and not the 550-HP package he has struggled with this season. With the 750-HP rules package, the Penske driver has not scored fewer than 33 points in a race and averages 48.8 points per race with that rules package. The 2018 champion had the seventh-most points at Darlington last year with two top-six finishes.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Raise your hand if you knew Byron had the third-most Fantasy Live points. He has nine straight top 10s and has scored no less than 34 points in a given race during that stretch. At Darlington, he has one top 10 – a fifth-place finish in the Southern 500 last year. His results this year have shown we can throw out past struggles when it comes to the young star.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Raise your hand if you knew Byron had the third-most Fantasy Live points. He has nine straight top 10s and has scored no less than 34 points in a given race during that stretch. At Darlington, he has one top 10 – a fifth-place finish in the Southern 500 last year. His results this year have shown we can throw out past struggles when it comes to the young star.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The finishes don’t do Elliott's Darlington stats justice. In the last two races at Darlington, Elliott has led with 15 laps to go -- only to get caught up in a wreck with another driver at the front of the field. Maybe that's a sign that he is cursed at this track or maybe he's just due for success here. He had two top fives in the three prior starts to those incidents here.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The finishes don’t do Elliott's Darlington stats justice. In the last two races at Darlington, Elliott has led with 15 laps to go -- only to get caught up in a wreck with another driver at the front of the field. Maybe that's a sign that he is cursed at this track or maybe he's just due for success here. He had two top fives in the three prior starts to those incidents here.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman scored the third-most points at Darlington last season – an average of 41.3 points per race. Only Harvick and Hamlin scored more points at the track "Too Tough to Tame." The concern on Bowman is his 2021 season is darn near impossible to figure out. He has a win at Richmond and some solid intermediate runs, but also some unexpected clunkers.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman scored the third-most points at Darlington last season – an average of 41.3 points per race. Only Harvick and Hamlin scored more points at the track "Too Tough to Tame." The concern on Bowman is his 2021 season is darn near impossible to figure out. He has a win at Richmond and some solid intermediate runs, but also some unexpected clunkers.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has not finished in the top 10 this season since the Miami race – the third event of the season. That cold spell should end at Darlington where he has six top 10s in his last eight races. In last year's Darlington races, he had the eighth-most points. He has run well at tracks where tire fall off is at a premium.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has not finished in the top 10 this season since the Miami race – the third event of the season. That cold spell should end at Darlington where he has six top 10s in his last eight races. In last year's Darlington races, he had the eighth-most points. He has run well at tracks where tire fall off is at a premium.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: A worn-out surface where drivers can go rim ride the top is made for someone like Reddick. He finished seventh in the first Darlington race last year – a race that was the same length as Sunday's. He also scored the 14th-most points here last year – more than Matt DiBenedetto and Ryan Blaney. He has four top 10s in his last five 2021 races.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: A worn-out surface where drivers can go rim ride the top is made for someone like Reddick. He finished seventh in the first Darlington race last year – a race that was the same length as Sunday's. He also scored the 14th-most points here last year – more than Matt DiBenedetto and Ryan Blaney. He has four top 10s in his last five 2021 races.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon finished as the runner up in last year’s Southern 500 and holds an average finish of 12.0 in nine starts. That mark is his best on any track in the NASCAR Cup Series. He also comes into this race with three straight top 10s in 2021 – a stretch that has seen him average 28.7 points per race.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon finished as the runner up in last year’s Southern 500 and holds an average finish of 12.0 in nine starts. That mark is his best on any track in the NASCAR Cup Series. He also comes into this race with three straight top 10s in 2021 – a stretch that has seen him average 28.7 points per race.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto comes into this race on a hot streak with three straight top 10s on the season and an average of 36 points per race in that stretch. He has two top 10s in his last four Darlington starts with just one finish outside the top 15 in that run.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto comes into this race on a hot streak with three straight top 10s on the season and an average of 36 points per race in that stretch. He has two top 10s in his last four Darlington starts with just one finish outside the top 15 in that run.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: In eight Cup races at Darlington, Blaney has never led or finished in the top 10. It's his second-worst non-superspeedway oval based on average finish – 20.4. There's ample opportunity to use Blaney in the coming weeks – notably road courses and Charlotte.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: In eight Cup races at Darlington, Blaney has never led or finished in the top 10. It's his second-worst non-superspeedway oval based on average finish – 20.4. There's ample opportunity to use Blaney in the coming weeks – notably road courses and Charlotte.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: In 10 starts at Darlington, Stenhouse has no top 10s and has finished inside the top 15 just once. In the three races held there last year, he scored the 25th-most points. He's also in a bit of a cold spell in 2021 with two straight finishes outside the top 30.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: In 10 starts at Darlington, Stenhouse has no top 10s and has finished inside the top 15 just once. In the three races held there last year, he scored the 25th-most points. He's also in a bit of a cold spell in 2021 with two straight finishes outside the top 30.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has never finished outside the top 10 in six starts at Darlington. However, those were all in rides with Furniture Row and Joe Gibbs Racing. In 26 Darlington starts, Richard Petty Motorsports has one top 10 in 26 starts. Jones has finished in the top 10 just twice in 11 starts in 2021.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has never finished outside the top 10 in six starts at Darlington. However, those were all in rides with Furniture Row and Joe Gibbs Racing. In 26 Darlington starts, Richard Petty Motorsports has one top 10 in 26 starts. Jones has finished in the top 10 just twice in 11 starts in 2021.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski
, Kyle Busch; Garage: Tyler Reddick.
Just missed the cut: Martin Truex Jr., Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, William Byron and Matt DiBenedetto.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Martin Truex Jr., Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, William Byron and Matt DiBenedetto.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.