Fantasy Fastlane: Lean in on Larson at another 1.5-miler in Charlotte

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Odds come from BetMGM.


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Please note for the Coca-Cola 600 only, the garage locks at the end of Stage 3. Only Stage 1 and Stage 2 points will count toward stage points.



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Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has not won a points-paying race at Charlotte, but his 12.5 average finish is third best among drivers with at least two starts there. On the season, the overall points leader has scored the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks – an average of 39.8 points – and no fewer than 35 points in a race. I want the best I can field for the longest race of the season, and that starts with Hamlin.

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 5-1

Fastlane forecast: Larson has been the class of the field on 1.5-mile tracks, and it's surprising he has just one win in four starts on that track type this year. On 1.5-milers in 2021: He has three top-four finishes (if it wasn't for late contact at Kansas, he'd have four), an average of 46.5 points per race and has led nearly half the laps run. His Charlotte stats are subpar, but the 1.5-mile strength can't be ignored.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: In Truex's last 10 starts on the Charlotte oval, he has three wins, seven top fives and just one finish outside the top 10. That includes two wins in the Coca-Cola 600. He has the most points in the last four races at Charlotte and is the only driver to finish in the top 10 in every race during that stretch. In four races on 1.5-mile tracks, Truex has an average finish of 6.0 and averaged 37.8 points – good for fifth in the series.

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron's top-10 streak came to an end at 11 races, but there's plenty to like regarding a potential play at Charlotte. He has the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season – an average of 41.8 points – and he has finished in the top 10 in all four races on that track type. In four starts at Charlotte, he has one top 10, but we would place more stock in the 2021 body of work.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: In four of Elliott's last five starts at Charlotte, he has finished in the top four. In the last four races at Charlotte, he has the third-most points. On top of that, the COTA winner comes into Sunday's race with four straight top-seven finishes on the 2021 season. If there's a downside to consider, it is his performance on 1.5-mile tracks so far in 2021 with the 12th-most points and one top 10 in those races.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 13-2

Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver with the second-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. The two-time champion has averaged 42.5 points and owns three top fives and four top 10s in four starts on that track type. In his last four races at Charlotte, Busch has the second-most points, and that includes his 2019 Coca-Cola 600 win. He has finished in the top four in his last three Coca-Cola 600 starts.

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: The bulk of Harvick's Charlotte stats suggest he's a no-brainer. Three wins, including two in the Coca-Cola 600. Not to mention seven top fives and 12 top 10s in the last 14 races on the oval layout at Charlotte. Similar to Elliott, though, the 2014 champ’s 1.5-mile performance to date in 2021 has left a little something to be desired – tied for the ninth-most points at 30 per race – despite holding a 9.3 average finish.

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney's cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but he has scored at least 30 points in nine of his last 11 races this season. YRB’s overall Charlotte oval history isn’t eye-popping, but he did have two third-place runs here last year. This season on 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney has a win and scored the seventh-most points. Over the last 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks, he has the most points.

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 11-1

Fastlane forecast: The defending race winner has had an up-and-down season. He has the sixth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks with two top-three finishes on that track type. On the other end, he has finished outside the top 15 in his last three races this season. In the last four races at Charlotte, he has the fourth-most points, but it does feel like there's more risk than normal here.

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Hendrick has found another gear in recent weeks, and Bowman is right in the middle of that with two wins. He led 215 laps in Charlotte oval races last year – a little more than one-third of the laps run, although he finished outside the top 10 in both races. He did have two top 10s in his previous two Charlotte starts. In 2021, he has the eighth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: Reddick's 1.5-mile stats run hot and cold, but there is no denying he has been a solid points producer for nearly two months now. In the last eight 2021 races, he has the eighth-most points and seven races where he has scored at least 30 points. In two Charlotte starts, he has an average finish of 11.0 with an eighth-place finish in last year's Coca-Cola 600.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: Dillon won this race in 2017 for his first Cup victory. He has been a stealth play on 1.5-milers this season with the seventh-best average finish (10.0) and the 11th-most points – an average of 28.3 per race. In four 1.5-mile track races this year, he has finished no worse than 12th and scored no less than 25 points.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats

Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: Buescher has the ninth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2021 – more than Chase Elliott and Joey Logano. He also has two top 10s and an average finish of 12.0 in those four races. He has scored 29 points in three of his last four 2021 races. At Charlotte, he has top 10s in two of his last three starts there.

STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano is an avoid for me strictly based on his lack of performance on 1.5-mile tracks this season. He has just one top 10, an average finish of 16.5 and the 17th-most points on that track type. That flies in the face of his 12.2 average finish at Charlotte being second best in the field, but he has just two top 10s in his last seven starts there.

STAY AWAY FROM: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 30-1

Fastlane forecast: Bell has an average finish of 19.0 and the 19th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. He does have one top 10 but also three finishes of 20th or worse. The second-year Cup driver has not finished in the top 10 in his last five 2021 races and has three finishes outside the top 20 in his last four races.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champ can’t seem to catch a break. Busch was running well at COTA before he hydroplaned and nearly got in a big wreck. He now has 11 straight races with a finish no better than 13th this season. His recent Charlotte numbers hold some promise for a turnaround (eight top 10s in the last 10 starts there), but his 1.5-mile stats in 2021 don’t (18th-most points, average finish of 20.3).

My lineup heading into the weekend: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr.; Garage: William Byron

Just missed the cut: Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman.

I'll have an update tweet likely on Sunday morning with any lineup changes.


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 6 p.m. ET on FOX.



Please note for the Coca-Cola 600 only, the garage locks at the end of Stage 3. Only Stage 1 and Stage 2 points will count toward stage points.



Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.