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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Bullish on Bowman at Sonoma
By RJ Kraft | Published: June 4, 2021 19
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 21-10
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has six road course wins after his victory at Circuit of The Americas two weekends ago. He's the best there is on the road courses and there's four left in the regular season. If you have limited uses (less than three), I’d prioritize Road America and Watkins Glen. He has a top five and two top 10s in four Sonoma starts and enters this race with four top fives in his last five 2021 starts. The 2020 champ has found his groove.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 21-10
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has six road course wins after his victory at Circuit of The Americas two weekends ago. He's the best there is on the road courses and there's four left in the regular season. If you have limited uses (less than three), I’d prioritize Road America and Watkins Glen. He has a top five and two top 10s in four Sonoma starts and enters this race with four top fives in his last five 2021 starts. The 2020 champ has found his groove.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 15-4
Fastlane forecast: Truex has won the last two races at Sonoma and has three wins there in his Cup career. Outside of those, he has just one top five and two top 10s in his other 11 starts there. His rough go at Charlotte (and subsequently being garaged by me) has given me an extra use to play with and I'll spend it here. One watch-out: He rarely goes for stage points at Sonoma but he won't have his usual front-of-the-pack starting spot here on Sunday.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 15-4
Fastlane forecast: Truex has won the last two races at Sonoma and has three wins there in his Cup career. Outside of those, he has just one top five and two top 10s in his other 11 starts there. His rough go at Charlotte (and subsequently being garaged by me) has given me an extra use to play with and I'll spend it here. One watch-out: He rarely goes for stage points at Sonoma but he won't have his usual front-of-the-pack starting spot here on Sunday.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has scored four straight top 10s at Sonoma with three of those finishes coming in the top five. He's scored the most points at this track in the last three races and has the third-most points in the last four Cup Series road races. I'd prioritize uses at New Hampshire, Michigan, Atlanta and Nashville over here, but if you have the uses, it’s not a bad thought.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has scored four straight top 10s at Sonoma with three of those finishes coming in the top five. He's scored the most points at this track in the last three races and has the third-most points in the last four Cup Series road races. I'd prioritize uses at New Hampshire, Michigan, Atlanta and Nashville over here, but if you have the uses, it’s not a bad thought.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron continued his strong 2021 as he notched his 12th top 10 in the last 13 races. The young driver doesn't have the wins that his teammate Chase Elliott has on road courses but he has performed well with the fifth-most points over the last four races on that track type. He has just two starts at Sonoma with a 36-point performance in the 2019 race.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron continued his strong 2021 as he notched his 12th top 10 in the last 13 races. The young driver doesn't have the wins that his teammate Chase Elliott has on road courses but he has performed well with the fifth-most points over the last four races on that track type. He has just two starts at Sonoma with a 36-point performance in the 2019 race.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch has two wins at Sonoma and enters this weekend with five straight top-seven finishes here (with four being top fives). His recent road record has been spotty (three finishes of 30th or worse in his last four), but COTA marked a turnaround with a solid points day. He has a lot of momentum with four races of at least 39 points in his last five 2021 races.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch has two wins at Sonoma and enters this weekend with five straight top-seven finishes here (with four being top fives). His recent road record has been spotty (three finishes of 30th or worse in his last four), but COTA marked a turnaround with a solid points day. He has a lot of momentum with four races of at least 39 points in his last five 2021 races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is one of four drivers to nab top 10s in both road course races this season. As we've noted several times, he has fared much better with the 750-HP package run on road courses as opposed to the 550-HP package run on intermediates/bigger tracks. His 14.3 average finish at Sonoma is fifth-best among the field for Sunday and he has the second-most points in the last four road course races run.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is one of four drivers to nab top 10s in both road course races this season. As we've noted several times, he has fared much better with the 750-HP package run on road courses as opposed to the 550-HP package run on intermediates/bigger tracks. His 14.3 average finish at Sonoma is fifth-best among the field for Sunday and he has the second-most points in the last four road course races run.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is at a weird spot in that he has yet to win a race in 2021 but has a solid 11 top 10s. Might he be a player for stage points to boost his standings position? He's been pretty stout at Sonoma in recent years with a win and five top-six finishes in his last five starts there. He's been cold on road courses in general of late but the stats show that Sonoma could be different for him.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is at a weird spot in that he has yet to win a race in 2021 but has a solid 11 top 10s. Might he be a player for stage points to boost his standings position? He's been pretty stout at Sonoma in recent years with a win and five top-six finishes in his last five starts there. He's been cold on road courses in general of late but the stats show that Sonoma could be different for him.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman comes into Sonoma with his best three-race stretch this season which includes a Dover win, a top 10 at COTA and a top five at Charlotte. He has top 10s in both 2021 road-course races as well as the sixth-most points on road courses in the last four races. In his last 10 road-course races, he has not finished worse than 14th with six top 10s in that span.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman comes into Sonoma with his best three-race stretch this season which includes a Dover win, a top 10 at COTA and a top five at Charlotte. He has top 10s in both 2021 road-course races as well as the sixth-most points on road courses in the last four races. In his last 10 road-course races, he has not finished worse than 14th with six top 10s in that span.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is solid all around but it feels like his road-racing ability flies under the radar more than others. He has the Charlotte Roval win in 2018 and he has two top 10s – including a top-three result at Sonoma in four starts. In his last four road races, he has tied for the 10th-most points scored. One thing to consider on usage, I'd rather have him for Road America and Watkins Glen.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is solid all around but it feels like his road-racing ability flies under the radar more than others. He has the Charlotte Roval win in 2018 and he has two top 10s – including a top-three result at Sonoma in four starts. In his last four road races, he has tied for the 10th-most points scored. One thing to consider on usage, I'd rather have him for Road America and Watkins Glen.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has one win at Sonoma (in 2011) and the fourth-best average finish at the California road course (13.6) among drivers in the field. He has not finished worse than 13th in his last nine starts here. The pause for concern is that trouble seemingly finds the 2004 champ every weekend of late – he has three finishes outside the top 25 in the last four races.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has one win at Sonoma (in 2011) and the fourth-best average finish at the California road course (13.6) among drivers in the field. He has not finished worse than 13th in his last nine starts here. The pause for concern is that trouble seemingly finds the 2004 champ every weekend of late – he has three finishes outside the top 25 in the last four races.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: While it hasn't been quite as good of a roll as William Byron, Reddick has been on a solid run of his own with seven top 10s in his last nine races in 2021. That includes a 36-point, ninth-place finish at COTA and eight races with at least 30 points. He hasn't run Sonoma as a Cup driver but there's still lots to like here with a driver who should chase stage points.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: While it hasn't been quite as good of a roll as William Byron, Reddick has been on a solid run of his own with seven top 10s in his last nine races in 2021. That includes a 36-point, ninth-place finish at COTA and eight races with at least 30 points. He hasn't run Sonoma as a Cup driver but there's still lots to like here with a driver who should chase stage points.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is an underrated road racer as evidenced by his ninth-most points in the last four road races and an average finish of 12.3 in those events. In this year's two road races, he has an average of 28 points. He also has 11th-most points in the last three Sonoma races. And we also have to factor this in – given his standings position, he should be pursuing stage points.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is an underrated road racer as evidenced by his ninth-most points in the last four road races and an average finish of 12.3 in those events. In this year's two road races, he has an average of 28 points. He also has 11th-most points in the last three Sonoma races. And we also have to factor this in – given his standings position, he should be pursuing stage points.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: This year's Daytona 500 winner is also one of only four drivers to nab top 10s in both road-course races run thus far (AJ Allmendinger, Joey Logano and Alex Bowman are the others). Over the last four road-course races, McDowell is tied for the 10th-most points, but he's never finished in the top 10 at Sonoma in eight starts.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: This year's Daytona 500 winner is also one of only four drivers to nab top 10s in both road-course races run thus far (AJ Allmendinger, Joey Logano and Alex Bowman are the others). Over the last four road-course races, McDowell is tied for the 10th-most points, but he's never finished in the top 10 at Sonoma in eight starts.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has the third-best average finish at Sonoma (13.3) with two top 10s. Granted, those starts came during his Toyota days but he does own an average finish of 15.0 in this year's two road races. Over the last four road races, he has the eighth-most points in the series.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has the third-best average finish at Sonoma (13.3) with two top 10s. Granted, those starts came during his Toyota days but he does own an average finish of 15.0 in this year's two road races. Over the last four road races, he has the eighth-most points in the series.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner is no stranger to the pole position at Sonoma – Sunday will mark his fourth straight race at the California road course from the front row. Yet, he’s only finished in the top 10 once in six starts there. There's only one 1.5-miler left in the regular season, but Nashville and Michigan loom as potential Larson hot spots for plays too.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner is no stranger to the pole position at Sonoma – Sunday will mark his fourth straight race at the California road course from the front row. Yet, he’s only finished in the top 10 once in six starts there. There's only one 1.5-miler left in the regular season, but Nashville and Michigan loom as potential Larson hot spots for plays too.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: By now you know the drill about Dillon on road courses. 17 starts, no top 10s and an average finish of 24.0. In six starts at Sonoma, Dillon has a best finish of 16th and an average finish of 19.0. There will be some places to consider an AD start but a road course remains an avoid.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: By now you know the drill about Dillon on road courses. 17 starts, no top 10s and an average finish of 24.0. In six starts at Sonoma, Dillon has a best finish of 16th and an average finish of 19.0. There will be some places to consider an AD start but a road course remains an avoid.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: In 20 road-course starts, Stenhouse has no top 10s and an average finish of 23.5. Over seven starts at Sonoma, he has a best finish of 18th and four finishes outside the top 25. In his last four road races, he has the 17th-most points. Those are numbers you have to avoid on a road course.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: In 20 road-course starts, Stenhouse has no top 10s and an average finish of 23.5. Over seven starts at Sonoma, he has a best finish of 18th and four finishes outside the top 25. In his last four road races, he has the 17th-most points. Those are numbers you have to avoid on a road course.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Chris Buescher; Garage: Martin Truex Jr.
Just missed the cut: Joey Logano, William Byron (usage concerns), Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick and Kurt Busch.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 4 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Joey Logano, William Byron (usage concerns), Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick and Kurt Busch.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 4 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.