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Bubble Watch: Which remaining tracks stand out for the drivers close to the cutline
By RJ Kraft | Published: July 21, 2021 12
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Tyler Reddick holds the last spot in the playoffs while his Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon is in close pursuit. See where the playoff bubble stands with four races remaining (Watkins Glen, Indianapolis Road Course, Michigan and Daytona) in the regular season, and what track stands out for each driver as a major opportunity.
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Kevin Harvick
Points to the good: 82 | Full standings
Trending: Up. While his position to the cutline is a bit tighter after Aric Almirola's win, Harvick's sixth-place run at New Hampshire is his fourth top-eight finish in the last six races.
Biggest opportunity: Harvick swept last year's Michigan doubleheader and has won four of the last five races there. That's his prime opportunity to lock himself into the field. That said, he's in a good spot to make it on points if there are multiple repeat winners over the final four races.
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Tyler Reddick
Points to the good: 5 | Full standings
Trending: Neutral. On the plus side, Reddick is above the cutline. On the downside, Almirola's win puts him from being in a great spot (+96) to a dog fight for the last spot (+5) and another winner outside the cutline would likely knock him out.
Biggest opportunity: Reddick has performed very well from a points perspective at the two road courses (COTA and Road America) where practice and qualifying have occurred, so that's why Indianapolis stands out as his best opportunity. In those two races, he's averaged 41 points and scored 25 stage points. Those are going to be valuable commodities given his current position.
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Austin Dillon
Points behind: 5 | Full standings
Trending: Down. Almirola's win dropped Dillon below the cutline in one fell swoop. His 17th-place finish at New Hampshire is tied for his fourth-worst finish of the year and he has no top 10s in the last seven races.
Biggest opportunity: Michigan and Daytona stand out for him especially since he's 0-for-19 in top 10s on road courses for his Cup career. He has a 2018 Daytona 500 win on his resume and Daytona is his third-best track (with more than one start) by average finish. He also has three top-eight finishes at Michigan in his last seven starts there.
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Chris Buescher
Points behind: 121 | Full standings
Trending: Down. At the end of May, Buescher was on the right side of the cutline. Since the Coca-Cola 600, he has no top 15s in seven races and has gone from +55 on the cutline to -121 -- a 186-point swing to the bad.
Biggest opportunity: Daytona stands out as he has five top 10s in 11 starts there. He was one of the best finishers on superspeedways last season with three top 10s in those four races.
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Matt DiBenedetto
Points behind: 143 | Full standings
Trending: Small gains. DiBenedetto is getting better finishes even if he loses a little ground to the cutline. His 11th-place finish at New Hampshire was his third straight top-11 result.
Biggest opportunity: Indianapolis stands out in part because he tested the course last year but also because he nabbed a top 10 at the last road course on the schedule -- Road America. Watkins Glen could be an opportunity too as he finished sixth there in 2019.
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Ross Chastain
Points behind: 144 | Full standings
Trending: Up. Chastain has top 10s in two of the last three races on the season. Five of his six top 10s this year have come with the 750-horsepower package.
Biggest opportunity: Both road courses stand out but if we had to pick one, go with Indianapolis. He has an average finish of 6.0 on the last three road races run and scored top 10s in all three of them. And he finished sixth in the Xfinity race here last year.
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Bubba Wallace
Points behind: 170 | Full standings
Trending: Down. Wallace has two finishes outside the top 20 in his last three races and is 0-for-12 in top 10s on road courses.
Biggest opportunity: Two of Wallace's four Cup top fives have come at Daytona, including a fifth-place run in the summer race last year. Let's not forget, he had speed in his No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota during Speedweeks at the start of the year.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Points behind: 172 | Full standings
Trending: Bouncing back. Stenhouse has three top 15s in his last five races. However, the last two of those have come after races where he finished 38th and 37th. That good-bad finish trend is likely to continue with road courses coming up as he's 0-for-22 in top 10s on that track type.
Biggest opportunity: Stenhouse has won the summer Daytona race before (in 2017) and both of his premier series wins are on superspeedways.
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Daniel Suarez
Points behind: 195 | Full standings
Trending: Down. Suarez has three straight finishes of 20th-or-worse. He's dropped from 18th to 22nd in the point standings during that stretch as well.
Biggest opportunity: Despite two finishes of 33rd-or-worse in the last three road course races, we'd have to say Watkins Glen. He has two top fives there in three starts and entering this season it was his best track based on average finish.
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Chase Briscoe
Points behind: 219 | Full standings
Trending: Down. Outside of two road course top 10s this season, it's been tough sledding for the Sunoco Rookie of the Year candidate.
Biggest opportunity: Indianapolis stands out since he won the Xfinity race on the road course layout last year and has nabbed top 10s at COTA and Road America -- two weekends that have seen practice and qualifying like Indianapolis will.
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Others to watch
Erik Jones (-236 to cutline): Won at Daytona in 2018 and has top fives in two of his last five superspeedway starts..
Ryan Preece (-239 to cutline): Four of his eight Cup top 10s have come on superspeedways.
Ryan Newman (pictured, -242 to cutline): Won 2008 Daytona 500 and has five top 10s in last eight Daytona starts.
Cole Custer (-259 to cutline): His 10.5 average finish in both 2021 superspeedway races is seventh-best.
Corey LaJoie (-327 to cutline): All four of LaJoie's Cup top 10s have come at superspeedways; three of those have come in his last four Daytona starts.