Fantasy Fastlane: Drivers, strategies to use for final four regular-season races

The two-week off stretch is a good time to reset and evaluate where we are at on uses for the remaining four regular-season races in Fantasy Live. We might be out of some drivers but there are avenues for us to turn to. The schedule includes Watkins Glen -- a track that wasn’t run in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A new layout at Indianapolis, the first and only two-mile track of the season at Michigan and the wild card of superspeedway racing at Daytona.

So with all that in mind, here’s a quick look at some plays to consider for those races – we’ll go in deeper detail for those race weekends in the usual Fantasy Fastlane piece on Fridays on NASCAR.com – as well as strategy to consider for these races.

Watkins Glen

Top plays

Chase Elliott: Won the last two races held here (2018-19); seven road course wins since 2018.
Martin Truex Jr. (pictured): His last three starts there since with 2017? First, second, second. 

Joey Logano: Second-most points on road courses in 2021 and won here in 2015.

Kyle Busch: Two wins at Watkins Glen and 12 top-nine finishes in 15 starts.



Sleepers
Daniel Suarez: Two top fives in three Watkins Glen starts.
Christopher Bell: Three straight top-eight finishes in 2021, average finish of 5.5 in two Xfinity Series starts here
.

Avoids

Aric Almirola: The New Hampshire winner has never finished better than 12th here.
William Byron: He has the 22nd-most points on road courses this year and three finishes of 30th-or-worse in the four road races.

Strategy

For me, this is a must-start spot for Elliott and Truex. Both have been really good here of late and even at limited uses, it’s hard to see a track that’s a better match for both of them. Logano (pictured) is a must too as he and crew chief Paul Wolfe like to gobble up points at these races and he’ll likely have the starting spot to do that thanks to his New Hampshire finish. It’s important to look at agendas as well – who needs a big points day and to score in the stages. That could make a driver like Kevin Harvick or a Tyler Reddick a little more appealing as they look to point their way into the playoffs. It could also make a driver in a standings position battle more appealing like a Logano or Brad Keselowski as they look to snag more playoff points.

Indianapolis

Top plays
Chase Elliott (pictured): Seven road course wins in his career – last two coming this year at new Cup tracks of COTA and Road America.

Kyle Busch: Average finish of 6.5, average of 37 points at two road courses with practice/qualifying (COTA and Road America).

Kurt Busch: Three top-six finishes in four road courses this year, average finish of 10.3 is fourth-best in '21 on road courses.
Alex Bowman: Sixth-most points scored over the last 10 road courses—only one finish worse than 14th.

Sleepers

Ross Chastain: Average finish of 5.5, average of 40 points at two road courses with practice/qualifying (COTA and Road America).

Tyler Reddick: Average finish of 8.5, average of 41 points at two road courses with practice/qualifying (COTA and Road America).

Chase Briscoe: Average finish of 6.0, average of 34 points at two road courses with practice/qualifying (COTA and Road America—site of both his top 10s).



Avoids

Kevin Harvick: Average finish of 32.0, total of 15 points at two road courses with practice/qualifying (COTA and Road America).

Austin Dillon: Has made some strides on road courses but is now 0-for-22 in top 10s on road courses.

Strategy
This is the last regular-season race weekend that will feature practice and qualifying and that could bring some different drivers to interesting starting spots (like a Chastain, pictured). The lap times will tell a tale and offer some guidance as to what path to go down as the Cup Series has never run this layout. This also could be a race weekend that sees Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger run the Cup race (just a gut feeling based on recent previous races they have been entered in) and they would certainly be intriguing propositions to consider. Similar to Watkins Glen, it's important to know the agendas of different drivers who may be in a tight fight for the playoffs, be more prone to go for big points days and to take that into account when plotting your lineup.

Michigan

Top plays
Kyle Larson: The best driver with the 550-horsepower package this year and he has three Michigan wins. 

Kyle Busch: Second-most points with the 550-horsepower package this year and he has not finished worse than sixth in his last six Michigan races.

Denny Hamlin: Fourth-most points with the 550-horsepower package this year and has two runner-up finishes in his last three Michigan starts.

Chase Elliott: Among active drivers, he has the best average finish here at 7.7. If you have any uses left with him after the road courses, he’s a must here. 

Kevin Harvick (pictured): He has won four of the last five Michigan races but his 550-horsepower package performance this season isn’t as good as the drivers ahead of him in this group.

Sleepers

Matt DiBenedetto: Scored a top 10 in second Michigan race last year and has fared a bit better with the 550-horsepower package this year as opposed to the 750-horsepower package.

Alex Bowman: Fifth-most points with the 550-horsepower package this season and that overshadows suspect Michigan numbers (25.5 average finish) for me.


Avoids

Kurt Busch: Take away his Atlanta win and the 550-horsepower performance has been lacking on the 1 car this year. With uses available for a host of others, I’ll be staying away.

Joey Logano: This one is tough because Michigan is one of Logano’s better tracks with three wins there but the 22 camp has been off a lot at the 550-horsepower tracks with the 16th-most points this year.

Strategy
This is the place to break out your studs one final time if you have the uses. I’ll be leaning heavily on the stats we’ve seen on 550-horsepower tracks meaning this is a likely Hendrick-centric lineup – if you have any Larson (pictured) use left, this is the spot to use it at. Ditto for Denny Hamlin in the Joe Gibbs Racing camp. Then, fill in the blanks with some others who may have good Michigan numbers (Harvick) and others with uses available (Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney) and potentially my final Kyle Busch use depending on how I utilize him at the road courses.

Daytona

Top plays
Denny Hamlin: Winner of three of the last five Daytona 500s and only driver with top fives in his last three Daytona starts.
Michael McDowell: Third-most points at Daytona over the last three Daytona races, winner of the 2021 Daytona 500 and four top 10s in last eight Daytona starts.

Austin Dillon: Among Cup regulars, holds the best average finish at Daytona at 14.8. won the 2018 Daytona 500 and has eight top 10s in 16 starts here.

William Byron: Finished second and first in last two summer races at Daytona. Three top fives in his last four superspeedway races. 



Sleepers

Bubba Wallace (pictured): Two top fives at Daytona and six top-15 finishes over eight starts. He has the sixth-most points over the last three races there.

Chris Buescher: Three top 10s in his last six superspeedway starts and the seventh-most points in those races over that stretch.


Use Caution

Ryan Blaney: He is boom or bust at this track with four top 10s and six crash-induced exits among his 12 starts at Daytona. 

Martin Truex Jr.: He has never won on a superspeedway and has just five top 10s in 32 starts at Daytona. Plan to have fully used him before this race.

Strategy
Given my disaster fantasy performances in superspeedway races this year, I don’t have a set plan. I’ll evaluate the uses I have left and who is the best fit here. I DO NOT believe in saving a use with a superspeedway race in mind but if you are happen to have a Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick or Chase Elliott use available, use it since the use will not be rolling over to the playoffs. But don’t build a strategy around saving a use for this race. Play out the first three races of the final four-race stretch as you need to with planning starts and then figure out what you have for Daytona. Superspeedway racing is too wild and unpredictable to be trying to budget uses for it. The only lineup certainty I have zeroed in on is Daytona 500 winner McDowell (pictured).