Xfinity Series Playoff Watch 2021: Analyzing the projected field

Through 19 races, the Xfinity Series has seen five different winners (among playoff eligible drivers), creating a fierce battle for the remaining seven playoff spots during the last stretch of the regular season. Scroll through the list to find out which drivers are locked in to the Round of 12 and which are on the bubble.

A few reminders:

-- 12 eligible drivers make the playoffs, with cutoffs after two three-race blocks (down to eight and then four), ending with the championship race at Phoenix Raceway.
-- Points are reset for playoff drivers, and playoff points accumulated during the regular season are added.

-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.

-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular-Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.

-- NOTE: Ty Gibbs and Josh Berry are currently ineligible to compete in the Xfinity Series Playoffs due to each not running the full season.

FIRST FIVE OUT

13. Riley Herbst - 32 points below the cutline
14. Brandon Brown - 41 points below the cutline
15. Ryan Sieg - 75 points below the cutline
16. Alex Labbe - 141 points below the cutline
17. Tommy Joe Martins - 145 points below the cutline

Outside of Herbst and Brown, it's becoming a long shot for the other drivers below the cutline to point their way in. But the good news is that winning guarantees a position in the Round of 12 and there are seven chances remaining. One, or multiple, first-time winners would put the next three drivers on this list on edge.

12. Michael Annett - 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points (32 points above the cutline)
Stage wins: 0
Breakdown: Annett has missed two races this season due to injury, but still finds himself in playoff contention after his waiver was approved. In his 17 races, he has one top five and eight top 10s, including a third-place finish in his most recent outing. Expected to come back healthy after the Olympics break, his current position as the final Round of 12 driver in the playoff standings is certainly a key one to watch.

11. Jeremy Clements - 2,001
Qualified by: Points (50 points above the cultine)
Stage wins: 0
Breakdown: The 11th Xfinity Season for Clements is turning out to be his best yet. His six top 10s are already a career high, though he's still searching for his first top five. However, seven races remaining means his 50-point cushion to the cutline likely requires a solid performance every week, especially if a bubble driver gets their first win. He's reeled off five top-15 finishes in the last six races prior to the break. If the trend continues, the veteran driver could be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

10. Brandon Jones - 2,003 points
Qualified by: Points (71 points above the cultine)
Stage wins: 1 stage win
Breakdown: Following a string of five top-10 finishes in a row, Jones had finishes of 19th, 39th (DNF - crash) and 38th (DNF - radiator) that set him back a bit in the points standings. When he stays out on the track, his No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has the speed to run out front -- 7 top fives and 10 top 10s in the 13 races he's finished confirms that. If the No. 19 team can stay out of trouble moving forward, it has a strong chance to make a deep playoff run as a dark horse.

9. Noah Gragson - 2,005 points
Qualified by: Points (126 points above the cultine)
Stage wins: 2
Breakdown: Two wins, 17 top fives and 25 top 10s. Those were Gragson's numbers from a year ago. So far this season, the No. 9 team has been plagued by a series of unfortunate incidents, leading to a career-high six DNFs through just 19 races. He has only six top fives to this point. What we do know is that Gragson has the talent and the team to turn his season around -- and he's begun to do so. He's finished outside the top 10 just once in the last six races. If you're going to bet on an underdog to shake up the championship battle, a bet on Gragson isn't far-fetched.

8. Myatt Snider - 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Homestead-Miami Speedway); locked in
Stage wins: 0
Breakdown: Snider only has one top five this season -- but it was a win, good enough to lock him into the Round of 12 in his second Xfinity season. Among those currently in the projected playoff field, Snider's 17.6 average finish puts him next to last and he's had just two top 10s in the last 11 races. For Snider and company, the early win has tamed their regular-season woes. But a push to Phoenix will require better performances with the playoffs right around the corner.

7. Justin Haley - 2,007 points
Qualified by: Points (159 points above the cutline)
Stage wins: 3
Breakdown: Despite missing the race at Dover International Speedway, Haley is tied for second-most top 10 finishes this season with 12. However, only two of those are top fives and he remains winless so far. The good news is he's coming off back-to-back top-six results before the Olympics break. Haley could be peaking at the right time in his bid for consecutive Championship 4 appearances.

6. Harrison Burton - 2,008 points
Qualified by: Points (197 points above the cutline)
Stage wins: 2
Breakdown: After four wins a season ago, Burton has surprisingly not found his way to Victory Lane yet in 2021. An incredible mid-season stretch of nine consecutive top-12 finishes has kept him in the playoff hunt. But four finishes of 24th or worse in the last seven races has his points cushion narrowing a bit. Though it's highly unlikely that he loses the ability to point his way into the playoffs, the pressure is turning up in his final season before moving up to Cup.

5. Jeb Burton - 2,010 points
Qualified by: Win (Talladega Superspeedway); locked in
Stage wins: 0
Breakdown: After five top-10 finishes in a row to start the season, Burton has had his fair share of ups and downs. The high, locking a second Kaulig Racing Chevrolet into the playoffs with a rain-shortened win at Talladega. From that point, he's has five top 10s and six finishes outside the top 10. Already guaranteed a place in the Round of 12, look for the No. 10 team to try to find some consistency in these final regular-season races. It's a must-have to keep pace with the leaders in their hunt for a championship.

4. Daniel Hemric - 2,013 points
Qualified by: Points (266 points above the cutline)
Stage wins: 5
Breakdown: If not for the Atlanta Motor Speedway heartbreak, Hemric would be in the win column and locked into the playoffs. Nonetheless, he leads all non-winners in points and has had such a strong season that he even slots in ahead of a couple winners. His five stage wins match AJ Allmendinger and trail only Austin Cindric, vaulting him a position in the current playoff standings. With solid performances at every track type this season, it would be reasonable to expect his elusive, first-career national series win to come at some point down the final stretch.

3. Justin Allgaier - 2,018 points
Qualified by: Wins (Atlanta Motor Speedway, Darlington Raceway); locked in
Stage wins: 1
Breakdown: Despite a slow start to the season (four consecutive finishes of 14th or worse), Allgaier returned to championship-contending form with his wins at Atlanta and Darlington. Since those wins, he's finished runner-up and in third place three times each. If just half of those close races fall his way, he could very well be atop this list. The point is, don't be surprised if Allgaier reels off a couple of wins down the stretch to put more pressure on AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric heading into the postseason. A first career Xfinity Series Championship is certainly within his reach.

2. AJ Allmendinger - 2,025 points
Qualified by: Wins (Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course); locked in
Stage wins: 5
Breakdown: If you watched him race every week, you wouldn't guess that this is Allmendinger's first full-time season in the series. In 19 races, the No. 16 Kaulig Racing team has finished outside the top 14 just twice -- once due to brake issues -- and ranks second with 11 top fives. The road-course ace's overall consistency and newfound speed on ovals makes him a strong contender to the championship favorite, Austin Cindric.

1. Austin Cindric - 2,042 points
Qualified by: Wins (Daytona Superspeedway, Phoenix Raceway, Dover International Speedway, Pocono Raceway); locked in
Stage wins: 7
Breakdown: Austin Cindric has more often than not been the driver to beat this season. If he keeps up this incredible pace, his 4.1 average finish would be the best since Kyle Busch in 2014 (minimum of 19 races). He's led a series-high 534 laps and is on pace to set a career-best mark in wins (currently at four, single-season high six last season). An already comfortable playoff-points cushion would be that much sweeter with the bonus 15 for the regular-season title. Heading to the Cup Series next season, adding his name to the prestigious list of back-to-back Xfinity Series Championship winners would send him out with a bang.