Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Reddick, Chastain turning into solid road-course plays

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

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Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 21-10

Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won two of the season's five road-course races, including both on tracks new to the Cup circuit – Circuit of The Americas and Road America – and has two runner-up finishes. He also has seven road-course wins in his Cup career. He has scored at least 31 points in the five road races this season, and his average of 41.8 points on that track type is second best. If you have any uses left with the reigning champ, deploy him here.

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-5

Fastlane forecast: Like his Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott, Larson has won two of this season's road-course races and scored a runner-up finish. He has the most points on that track type with an average of 42.2 points. In the last four races on that track type, he has scored at least 36 points. What about uses? If you have one left, I'd save it for Michigan as he has been the best driver with the 550-package. If you somehow have two uses, play him.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: In three of the season's five road races to date, Truex has scored at least 35 points. Those runs have come at tracks that the series has previously run. That said, he did score a top 10 at Road America as well. He has good numbers at Michigan, so what do you do? I trust Truex a little more this season on road courses as opposed to the 550-horsepower tracks, so I am planning to use him here before practice and qualifying.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch has been one of the best on the Indianapolis oval with two wins there. He also has run really well in recent road-course races with three straight top fives and four straight road races with at least 35 points. He has been pretty solid at tracks where he has gotten extra seat time this season. The concern is he has struggled on road courses that are Roval-like, and if you only have one use, his 550-horsepower stats this season/recent Michigan numbers are very strong.

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has scored the fourth-most points on road courses this season and has three top fives in those five races. He has four races with at least 30 points on road courses. But like so many others, what do you do about uses? At one use, I'm holding him back for Michigan. At two, I'd be inclined to take my chances on the road course given my overall philosophy of not holding back uses for Daytona - as good as he is there.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano has the third-most points scored on road courses this season, and that is with just 27-point days in the last two road races. If you are down to one use, do you use him here or at Michigan where he has three wins in his Cup career? Based on his lack of success with the 550-package this season, I'd lean heavily toward using him this weekend.

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron was one of our avoids last week, but he got his mojo back with a sixth-place run at Watkins Glen – his best of the year at a road course. Qualifying is on tap this weekend, and that should be a boost for Byron as he earned top-five starting spots at Sonoma and Circuit of The Americas and then also a pole at Road America. In fact, he earned 19 stage points at Road America, and the fourth-year driver finds himself in a standings battle for playoff points.

Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has the fifth-most points and fifth-best average finish on road courses this season – marks that are better than Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. Before his Atlanta win, he was very much a stage-point hunter at Circuit of The Americas, Sonoma and Road America – totaling 26 stage points. However, he had none at Watkins Glen. I'd see how he qualifies before deciding if this a play to go in on.

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Allmendinger will be making his fourth Cup start of the season. All have come at road courses with the veteran nabbing top 10s in two of the three races he has run. Remember, while ineligible for Cup points, he is eligible for points in Fantasy Live. He has scored 14 stage points this season and has an average of 28 points. He finished fourth at this track in last year's Xfinity race.

SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Chastain's better results have largely come on road courses with three top 10s in those five races. He also has scored at least 30 points in the last four races on that track type – an average of 35 points per race in that stretch. In the two road-course races that had qualifying, he has averaged 40 points. He finished sixth on this track in the Xfinity Series last year.

SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Bell has put together his best run of Cup races over the last four events with two runner ups, four top 10s and an average of 36.8 points. Two of those races were at road courses -- a runner-up run at Road America and a seventh-place finish at Watkins Glen. He also won at the Daytona Road Course in February. The lack of stage points is my main hesitation here.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: Reddick continues to score points on the road courses as he makes his push toward a playoff spot. Sitting at plus-15 on the cutline, I'd expect the RCR driver to go all out for stage points much as he did at Circuit of The Americas and Road America – he averaged 41 points in those races and scored 25 stage points. He has the 10th-most points on road courses in 2021.

SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Briscoe has notched top 10s in three of the season's five road course races – in fact, they are his only top 10s this season and his only races with more than 30 points. He also won the Xfinity Series race on this layout last summer and has had similar success on another Roval-type layout in Charlotte. If you are all out on the bigger names, he's a good option.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 33 Ford

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Cindric will be making his final Cup start of the season and is eligible for Fantasy Live points. Two of his six starts at the Cup level have come on road courses. While he hasn't gotten the finishes (average finish of 31.5), he did nab 13 stage points at Circuit of The Americas and qualified in the top five in both events. He finished fifth on this track in last year's Xfinity race.

STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has scored the 16th-most points this season on road courses with only one race where he scored more than 30 points. Last week from the pole position at Watkins Glen, multiple incidents with brake issues led him to just two points. I'll probably plug him in for the race next weekend at Michigan but pass on another road course with him.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney has one top 10 and the 15th-most points this season on road courses. He has not scored more than 27 points in any of the five road-course races this season. On the two road courses new to the Cup Series, he hasn't topped more than 20 points. It doesn't seem likely we'd get the big point number we'd like from Blaney.

STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: In five road-course races this season, Almirola has the 22nd-most points, no finish better than 14th and no single-race point total higher than 23. Of the races left on the schedule, Daytona is the one track I'd consider him for in the regular season based on his previous superspeedway success – two wins – one each at Daytona and Talladega.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick; Garage: AJ Allmendinger

Just missed the cut: Kyle Larson (saving for Michigan), Kyle Busch (saving for Michigan), Christopher Bell, Kurt Busch, Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman and Austin Cindric

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Remember, there is practice Saturday morning and qualifying Sunday morning. My stance on trying to save my final Kyle Busch use may change from now to then, and there could be other adjustments, so...


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