Bubble Watch: Who’s already in danger at Darlington?

After a win, nine top fives and 16 tops 10s so far this season, William Byron finds himself in the final spot in the top half of the Cup Series Playoffs field. Those below him? They have a bit more work to do. If the Round of 12 started today, these upcoming drivers would be the first four in and the last four out. Fortunately for each of the 16 playoff drivers, they control their own destiny in the hunt for a championship. Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) sets the tone for the races to come. Take a look at who's on the bubble.

Joey Logano: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 12th: 8
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- It's been a cold summer for Logano recently, with two DNFs compounding four consecutive finishes of 22nd or worse. His last top five result came back in July.
Darlington outlook: Hit or miss -- Five finishes of sixth or better and four finishes of 13th or worse in his last nine races at Darlington confirm that it has been a rollercoaster. With such a tight race at the cutline, his stage-point savvy nature — points in 10 of 14 here — makes him an intriguing player on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 12th: 3
Full standings
Trending: Mostly cold -- Locking down a playoff berth with an early season win paid off for the soon-to-be car owner. His cold summer streak saw him slip a bit in the standings, aided by a trio of finishes of 24th or worse in the last four races.
Darlington outlook: Keselowski has what it takes to be a contender at Darlington, leading laps in nine of the last 10 outings there for a total of 380. He's also seemingly mastered the stage-point advantage and picked up crucial points in more than half the stages he's raced there. The key for the No. 2 wheelman? Finishing. Look for him to turn his recent misfortunes around at the technical South Carolina track.

Kurt Busch: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 12th: 3
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss -- The elder Busch finished 12th at Daytona after early miscues and a last-lap wreck (along with a number of other cars). In his last eight races, he's had four finishes in the top 10, including a win, and four outside the top 10.
Darlington outlook: Busch's best career finish at Darlington — second — still dates back to 2003. In his last three trips to the iconic track, he's managed just one top 10 to a pair of finishes of 15th or worse. However, his speed and strategy at Atlanta Motor Speedway earlier this summer should leave some good nuggets in the notebook at another high tire-wear intermediate.

Christopher Bell: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 12th: 0 (final transfer position)
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Bell has a shocking 11 finishes of 13th or worse in his last 17 races. Adding on to the recent struggles, he's crashed out of three of them. The pressure is on in his first playoff appearance.
Darlington outlook: Bell has only had four starts at Darlington in his young Cup career, but they haven't gone too well. He's only led three laps in the four races and will be in search of his first-ever top 10 at the track on Sunday.

Michael McDowell: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 0 (does not hold tiebreaker)
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Seven straight races of 20th or worst has the 2021 Daytona 500 winner skidding his way into the playoffs. He's also scored stage points in just six of 53 stages this season.
Darlington outlook: McDowell has never finished better than 16th here in 12 starts -- the worst among all the playoff drivers. Fortunately for the driver of the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford, that finish came a season ago and he's already made career-best strides this season.

Aric Almirola: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 0 (does not hold tiebreaker)
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Since his clutch win at New Hampshire, Almirola has yet to find himself back in the top 15. It's been a four-race slump for a team that has struggled for a large part of the season.
Darlington outlook: In this race last season, Almirola rallied for his best-ever finish of seventh. Both of his top 10s at the track have come in the last three starts and his newfound speed at 1.5-milers is something to look out for.

Tyler Reddick: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 2
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss -- Reddick outdueled Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon in a dramatic finish at Daytona. Outside of the strong effort there and at Atlanta, he's struggled to find consistency with three finishes of 13th or worse.
Darlington outlook: If momentum has a say, Reddick will be riding high this weekend. On the other hand, history hasn't been so kind to the young driver. He's only finished inside the top 10 here once and it didn't come in either of the last three trips.

Kevin Harvick: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 3
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Still searching for his first win in 2021, Harvick's speed just hasn't been there. He's managed just six top fives to this point, none coming in the last seven races.
Darlington outlook: Out of all the bubble drivers, Harvick's success at Darlington stands out above the rest. He's won two of the last three here and enters with a streak of 11 races of ninth or better. There's never a wrong time to get back on track and this weekend might jumpstart the No. 4 team.