Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Playoff reset, play the studs at Darlington

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

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Kyle Larson (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 3-1

Fastlane forecast: In four of his last five Darlington starts, Larson has finished in the top three. He has seemingly done everything but win at this track. For the season, he has the fifth-most points on ovals with the 750-horsepower package – an average of 36.8 points. When plotting out Larson uses, this stands out as one of his best followed by (in no order) Bristol, Las Vegas, Texas and Kansas.

Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's 7.4 average finish at Darlington is his best at any playoff track. He has three wins, 10 top fives and 14 top 10s in 18 starts there. He also has the most points on ovals with the 750-horsepower package – an average of 44.9 points. This is a must-use for Hamlin with the potential of deploying him at all three tracks in the Round of 16.

Kyle Busch (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch's last seven starts at Darlington have seen him finish second, seventh, third, 26th, second, seventh and third. I'll operate on the theory that the 26th was the outlier. Of the playoff tracks, it is his second-best based on average finish – only Richmond is better. While he has been up-and-down with the 750-horsepower package, the spring race here was his best run with it in 2021 – a third-place finish.

Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

Fastlane forecast: Truex dominated the spring race at Darlington and has led a whopping 444 of the last 660 laps run at the South Carolina track – more than two-thirds of the circuits run. The 2017 champion has been better with the 750-horsepower package so far this season – all three of his wins have come with it and he has the third-most points with it – making him a start for me.

Chase Elliott (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott led 142 laps in the three Darlington races last year with 114 of those coming in the playoff race. He was running up front in all three Darlington races last year with late contact in the last two hindering his final finishing position. He has three top-seven finishes in his last six races there and scored the eighth-most points with the 750-horsepower package on ovals this season.

William Byron (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron's last two starts at Darlington have produced top-five finishes following top-five starting spots. For the 2021 season, the young driver has the fourth-most points on tracks with the 750-horsepower package with only one finish outside the top 10 in those races. He was a bit cold to close the regular season – two top-six finishes in his last eight starts.

Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick's 2021 season is far from what we've gotten use to seeing out of him, but this is still a good spot to roster him. He has a streak of 11 top 10s at Darlington and that stretch includes his three wins there. He finished sixth there in the spring, scored the seventh-most points on oval 750-horsepower package tracks in the regular season and the second-most points in the last four races with the 750-package.

Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney’s Darlington numbers are rough with just one top 10 in nine starts and that top 10 came in the spring race. But you can't ignore his back-to-back wins coming into the playoffs, the fact that he has the third-most points in the last nine races and the best average finish (6.6) in that stretch. He has the sixth-most points with the 750-horsepower package on ovals this season. The Darlington history is the biggest hesitation here.

Joey Logano (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano has scored the second-most points on 750-horsepower package ovals this season with the only finish outside the top 10 in those races coming at Darlington. He does have five top-six finishes in his last nine starts there. The concern is how much he sputtered down the stretch in the regular season with four finishes in a row outside the top 20.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet 

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: Among tracks where he has made more than one start, Darlington is home to Dillon's best average finish (12.4). While he has just two top fives and three top 10s in 10 starts, he has six top-12 finishes at a track that is notoriously "Too Tough to Tame." Among the non-playoff drivers, Dillon is probably the one I will look to plug in at some point this postseason.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick (P) | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: In four starts at Darlington, Reddick has one top 10 and three top-13 finishes. With the 750-horsepower package on ovals, the second-year RCR driver has five races with at least 30 points including the spring race at Darlington. He also has the 10th-most points at Darlington over the last four races there and that's more than Kurt Busch and Ryan Blaney.

SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: Bell has two top 15s in four Darlington starts but the real reason I'd consider him an option is his stats on the ovals that used the 750-horsepower package. He has the 10th-most points with two top fives and five top 10s in those eight races. Of the playoff tracks, next weekend's race at Richmond is one to also strongly consider a use at.

SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: In his one Cup start at Darlington, Briscoe finished 11th in the spring. That stands as his best result on an oval that uses the 750-horsepower package. He's been making strides in the second half of his rookie season as he gains more seasoning at the Cup Series level.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch (P) | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Despite a 35th-place finish in the spring at Darlington, Busch does have five top 10s in his last seven starts here. The big concern for me is his overall performance with the 750-horsepower package on ovals this season as the 2004 champion has the 18th-most points in those races (and 14th among playoff drivers).

STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has been more miss than hit with the 750-horsepower package on ovals (just two races out of eight with over 30 points) which is a huge surprise considering how good he was with this package in 2020. He has finished outside the top 10 in three of the last four races at Darlington including a 24th-place finish in the spring. I'll pick my spots with the 2012 champ and this is not one of them.

STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, I have bad luck when it comes to picking Bowman into my lineup. He has two wins on ovals with the 750-horsepower package (and one of those makes him a major factor next weekend) but he also has six races out of eight with less than 25 points with that rules package. The Darlington stats of late see him with two top-six finishes and two finishes outside the top 15 in his last four races there.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott; Garage: William Byron/Kevin Harvick



Just missed the cut: Whoever I sit between Byron and Harvick, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick

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with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 6 p.m. ET on NBCSN.



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