Bubble Watch: Defending champ Elliott hovering above elimination line

Chase Elliott may be the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion, but he's no lock to advance to the Round of 12 after an attrition-filled NASCAR Playoffs opener at Darlington Raceway. If the Round of 12 started today, these upcoming drivers would be the first four in and the last four out. Fortunately for each of the 16 playoff drivers, they control their own destiny in the hunt for a championship. Saturday's Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders at Richmond Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) could shake things up even further. Take a look at who's on the bubble.

Christopher Bell: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 13th: 5
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- After a 20th-place result at the end of a long night at Darlington, Bell now has four straight finishes of 13th or worse and 13 in the last 18 races.
Richmond outlook: Hit or miss -- Bell placed fourth there in the spring and was 15th in this race last year after starting in the rear for unapproved adjustments.

Chase Elliott: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 13th: 4
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Darlington snapped a hot streak for Elliott, who had four straight top 10s leading into the playoffs.
Richmond outlook: Mostly cool -- Elliott does have a runner-up at the "Action Track" in 2018 but also is the owner of three finishes of 12th or worse in the last four there. Extend that out a little further, however, and he has four top 10s in the last seven.

Aric Almirola: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 13th: 3
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Almirola hasn't quite caught fire since his New Hampshire win, with five straight finishes now of 14th or worse and nine in the last 10 (Loudon being the exception).
Richmond outlook: Warming up -- Almirola grabbed a top five there in 2018 and has two straight finishes of eighth or better, with three top 10s in the last five.

Tyler Reddick: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above 13th: 0 (final transfer spot, holds tiebreaker)
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss -- Reddick finished 18th at Darlington and has four finishes of 13th or worse in the last six races, but he has five top 10s in the last nine.
Richmond outlook: Cold -- Reddick doesn't have much Richmond history to go on, with just two Cup starts at the track and a best finish of 11th, which came in this race last year.

Alex Bowman: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 0 (does not hold tiebreaker)
Full standings
Trending: Mostly cold-- A 26th-place finish at Darlington leaves him with four finishes of 16th or worse in the last five races, but he also has five top 10s and a win in the past 10.
Richmond outlook: Warm -- Bowman surely will be happy to see the Virginia track as the most recent winner, but before his spring victory, he had eight straight finishes of 12th or worse there from 2014-19.

Kyle Busch: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 2
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Busch has two straight finishes of 34th or worse, with four results of 20th or worse in the last six races.
Richmond outlook: Hot -- despite his recent struggles, Busch might be an under-the-radar favorite this weekend with six Richmond wins and seven straight top 10s there.

William Byron: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 9
Full standings
Trending: Cold -- Three DNFs in the past four races isn't exactly the path to a productive playoff run, though Byron does have two finishes of sixth or better in the last five.
Richmond outlook: Mostly cold -- Byron notched his best-career Richmond finish (seventh) in the spring but previously had five straight finishes of 12th or worse.

Michael McDowell: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below 12th: 20
Full standings
Trending: Ice cold -- What's cooler than being cool? McDowell, who now owns 13 straight finishes of 16th or worse and six straight of 21st or worse.
Richmond outlook: Cold -- McDowell unfortunately also has six straight finishes of 21st or worse here as well, with his best-career finish (12th) coming all the way back in 2016. He'll look to shock the world once again at Bristol next weekend.