Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: All-in on JGR at Richmond

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

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Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin got his first win of the season at Darlington, and the numbers suggests he could go 2-for-2 to open the playoffs. Richmond is his second-best playoff track with a 9.0 average finish and three wins – Darlington is where he has a better average finish and we saw how good he was there. Throw in seven top fives in his last nine Richmond starts and the most points on ovals with the 750-horsepower package and he’s a must-start.

Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 4-1

Fastlane forecast: Truex has been a laps-led machine at Richmond in recent years with seven races of more than 100 laps led in his last nine there. Both of his Richmond wins have come in that stretch with his 2019 sweep. In his last two Richmond races, only Joey Logano has scored more points. He also has the fourth-most points on 750-horsepower package ovals this season, and it's difficult not to see that continuing Saturday night.

Kyle Larson (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Fresh off a runner-up run at Darlington, Larson comes to Richmond where he won in 2017. Unfortunately, that is the outlier in his 13 starts at Richmond where he has two top fives and five top 10s. He had a forgettable 18th-place finish in the spring, but he does have the third-most points on 750-horsepower ovals. He's not a flat avoid, but I am not planning to spend a use here when I view Bristol, Las Vegas, Texas and Kansas as more advantageous uses.

Joey Logano (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish, Richmond is Logano's third-best track in the playoffs thanks to his 10.5 mark. He has two wins at the 0.75-mile track. He also has six top-five finishes in his last eight runs there and the most points there over the last two races. On the season, he has the second-most points with the 750-horsepower package on ovals with no total less than 30 points in those races, including a 50-point effort at Richmond in the spring.

Kyle Busch (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: Richmond is the two-time champ's best playoff track based on average finish (6.8). He has six wins here with the most recent coming in a 2018 season sweep of the track. He also has not finished worse than eighth in the last six races there – good enough for the third-most points in that span. The results with the 750-horsepower package on ovals have been suspect for "Rowdy" (18th-most points), but I'm inclined to trust the track history.

Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick's Darlington top-five finish was proof we can't sleep on him. He has the fifth-most points with the 750-horsepower package on ovals this season with at least 34 points in his last five races where it has been run. He has three wins at Richmond for his career and eight top 10s in his last 10 starts. And before you read too much into his 24th-place finish in the spring, know this: He was fourth in average running position in that race.

Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski dominated this race last year, and it stands as one of his two wins at Richmond. In his last 14 starts there, he has six top fives and 10 top 10s. So what’s the catch? His up-and-down 2021 season for one – he has been all over the map this season. That is further illustrated by his results on the 750-horsepower package ovals – tracks he was a monster at last year – he ranks just eighth in points with that rules package.

Chase Elliott (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott's Richmond resume has been a mixed bag. He has three top-five finishes in his last six races there but also three finishes outside the top 10 in that same stretch. His 12.0 average finish ranks fifth among the playoff tracks for him, but he has been more consistent at Bristol and Martinsville lately – tracks where he has a slightly lower career average finish. He's not a flat avoid, but I think the use is best saved for later.

Kurt Busch (P) | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has been on the upswing on the 750-horsepower ovals of late with two races with at least 40 points in his last three. He has two wins at Richmond in 40 starts, but he has finished outside the top 10 in his last six runs there after a stretch of six top 10s in seven races. There's some risk given his recent Richmond stats but also some upside with how he has run lately – three top-six finishes in his last four 2021 starts.

SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: Bell is likely to be the trendy sleeper pick this weekend and for good reason. JGR has been super successful at Richmond, he has done well there himself, and he has done well with the 750-horsepower package on ovals. He has the 10th-most points in this year's 750 tracks, and that includes a fourth-place run a Richmond in the spring. Throw in his three Xfinity wins in recent years at this track and there’s lots to like about this play.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Richmond has been one of Dillon's best tracks in recent years with four top 10s in his last five starts – a stretch where he has scored the eighth-most points. As a whole this season, he has been up and down with the 750-horsepower package – with no finish better than 10th and just one race with more than 30 points. If you are looking to conserve big-name uses, he's an option.

SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola (P) | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Richmond has historically been one of Almirola’s better tracks, and he backed that up in the spring with a sixth-place run – one of his three top 10s this season. He has two straight top 10s at the Virginia short track and the ninth-most points in that stretch. In three of his last six races on a 750-horsepower package oval, he has three races with at least 32 points.

SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Chastain's last three races on ovals with the 750-horsepower package have produced two top fives and three top-eight finishes as well as the fourth-most points in those races. That's what we call trending upward. In three of his last four Xfinity starts at this track, he nabbed top-five finishes. Similar to Dillon, he’s a sneaky option if you want to grab a non-playoff driver for your roster.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Among tracks where Blaney has at least two starts, Richmond stands as his worst based on average finish (23.4). He has no top 10s in 10 starts, no finish better than 11th and has yet to lead a lap there. The schedule starting in the Round of 12 is much more Blaney friendly. so I'll be holding my uses back until then.

STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: This has not been a good track for Byron early in his Cup career. His most recent run produced a top-10 finish, but prior to that, he had three finishes of 20th or worse in his first five starts there. There's also something to be said about wanting to avoid the current funk he is in this season – three finishes of 33rd or worse in his last four races and six finishes of 20th or worse in the last eight races. Teammate Alex Bowman – who won here in the spring – has also been in a funk for the last month or so (four finishes outside the top 15 in his last five races).

STAY AWAY FROM: Tyler Reddick (P) | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: In two starts at Richmond, Reddick has an average finish of 15.5 and no top 10s. The bigger issue is that puts him 16th in points over those two races – 14th among playoff drivers. Even in his Xfinity days, this wasn't a particularly strong track for him. Simply put, I just think there are better opportunities for plays this weekend.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell; Garage: Kyle Busch



Just missed the cut: Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, Ross Chastain and Kurt Busch


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Saturday’s race at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.




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