Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: A Blaney bonanza at Las Vegas?

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

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Kyle Larson (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-4

Fastlane forecast: Larson is fresh off his sixth 2021 win and now will run where the first of this season’s wins came for him – Las Vegas. At 1.5-mile tracks this season, the regular-season champion has two wins, the most points across those six races and led triple-digit laps in four of those races. His 1.5-mile dominance this season demands he be in your lineup this weekend as well as the remaining 1.5-milers of Texas and Kansas.

Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin compiled the most laps led in the Round of 16 and notched his first win of 2021. The JGR driver has back-to-back top fives at Las Vegas but only four of those overall in 19 starts at the track. In his previous five Vegas starts, he had just one top 10. He has earned the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. If you have four uses, play him. Given I went heavy on him to open the playoffs, I'll be saving my last uses for Round of 8 tracks.

Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 15-2

Fastlane forecast: Truex has two wins at Las Vegas and a run of five top fives in his last eight starts there with just one finish outside the top eight. Over the last three races there, he has the third-most points. For the season, he has the sixth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks with four races of at least 35 points. I'd use him as it's his second-best track left in average finish behind only the Charlotte Roval – although Martinsville has also been strong for him of late.

Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney's 9.2 average finish at Las Vegas is second best among Sunday's field and stands as his best among the playoff tracks. Over his last nine starts at the Nevada track, he has finished in the top seven, seven times. For the season, he has the eighth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks. I held Blaney back in the Round of 16 races largely because of how much I liked the remaining schedule for him, and it starts here.

Kyle Busch (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota 

Odds: 13-2

Fastlane forecast: On 1.5-mile tracks this season, the two-time champion has the best average finish (4.0), holds the second-most points scored (average of 46.3 points) and is the only driver to nab top 10s in all six of those races. While he only has one win at Las Vegas, he does have five top-seven finishes in his last seven starts at his home track. His 1.5-mile record says a lot about the 18 team’s strength this season, and it's why I'll have him in my lineup.

Joey Logano (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano's 8.4 average finish at Las Vegas is the best mark by any driver in the field. He has two wins, six top fives and 11 top 10s in 16 starts there. Those stats scream no-brainer, but his 2021 stats on 1.5-mile tracks are a cause for pause. He has just one top 10 (ninth in the spring at Las Vegas) in six 1.5-mile races, the 15th-most points in those races and the second-worst average finish on that track type among playoff drivers.

Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has three wins at Las Vegas, eight top fives and 11 top 10s in 16 starts. In fact, he has just one finish outside the top seven in his last 12 starts at the Nevada track. This is his best playoff track, and he did finish as the runner-up to Kyle Larson here in the spring. Keselowski has the seventh-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season with four races of at least 30 points. Even though the Vegas numbers favor Logano slightly, I'd trust the 1.5-mile body of work of Keselowski more.

Alex Bowman (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman has top-six finishes in two of his last four Las Vegas races, and if not for a late caution that led to differing strategies in the spring 2020 race, he'd have three in four races. A late-race issue in the spring 2021 race derailed a promising run. The 1.5-mile tracks have been a strength for this team with three top fives and the fifth-most points at that track type. I think having a second Hendrick play is advisable this weekend but could go either way on Bowman or, as you'll read further down, William Byron.

Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick scored the fourth-most points in the Round of 16, so he enters this round hot. He has two wins at Las Vegas in his last 10 starts there, but a word of caution: This isn't the 1.5-mile strong team of recent years. This track type with the 550-horsepower package has been a struggle as evidenced by his 20th-place finish at Vegas this spring. With the 10th-most points on 1.5-milers this season, he's a tough call. I’d lean toward an additional Hendrick or Penske play over the 2014 champ.

SLEEPER PICK: William Byron (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: It feels weird to classify the driver with the third-most points on 1.5-milers this season (average of 40.8 points) as a sleeper, but that’s where we are. He finished eighth here in the spring, he had the fifth-best average running position in that race, and his Bristol finish will give him momentum he hasn't had in quite a bit. The concern: He has just three top 10s in his last 11 races this season and a rash of finishes outside the top 20 in that stretch.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Dillon's last six Las Vegas runs have seen him nab four top-12 finishes, peaking with a fourth-place run in the 2020 spring race. In the six 1.5-mile tracks this season, he has not finished worse than 12th and scored no less than 25 points. He has the 12th-most points on that track type (average of 30.2 points) and the sixth-best average finish (9.7) this season.

SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: In both Las Vegas races last year, DiBenedetto was the runner-up finisher, and he has the seventh-most points at the track over the last three races. In three of his last four 1.5-mile track starts, he has scored at least 28 points and in general has fared better with the 550-horsepower package than with the 750-horsepower package.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats

Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: The second half of the season has been a rough go for the Texas native with one top 10 in the last 14 races and only one race with more than 25 points. However, Buescher has been solid on 1.5-mile tracks this season with three of his five top 10s coming at that track length and three races of at least 32 points. Something to keep in mind for three of the next five races.


STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Elliott (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas stands as Elliott third-worst track on average finish at 20.6. While he has led laps in the last three races and won three of the last six stages at Vegas, he has not finished in the top 10 in any of those races. He also has five finishes outside the top 20 in nine starts here. I'd rather hold my uses back for the Charlotte Roval, Kansas and Martinsville.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: Fresh off a surprise exit from the playoffs, the 2004 champ comes home as the defending race winner. However, his 2020 win at Las Vegas is very much the outlier in his stats at the track as he has just two other top fives and five other top 10s in 22 starts. In his last 12 starts here, he has finished outside the top 19 nine times. Those are hard stats to get behind for a play. 


STAY AWAY FROM: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: In three starts at Las Vegas, Reddick has never finished better than 18th and has an average finish of 26.0. Dating back to his Xfinity Series history, this track has been far from his best, and while he did have a win here, he only had one other top 10 in four additional starts. The second-year driver could be an option down the line at Texas and Kansas but not here.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, William Byron; Garage: Brad Keselowski/Alex Bowman


Just missed the cut: either Brad Keselowski/Alex Bowman,
Denny Hamlin (usage concerns), Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 7 p.m. ET on NBCSN.




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