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Well, this should certainly be fun.
With only five races remaining before the championship finale at Phoenix and just two races before the Round of 8 cutoff, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to perhaps its most unpredictable racetrack for Monday’s YellaWood 500 (1 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Talladega Superspeedway.
Superspeedways are notorious for pack racing and drafting, therefore resulting in cars constantly maneuvering within inches of each other.
One mistake, even a small one, can take a large portion of the field including drivers who simply find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. The racing here is undoubtedly unpredictable, but some drivers seem to have a knack for pack racing, and that shows in the past data.
RELATED: NASCAR BetCenter | Superspeedway kings of NASCAR
Topping the list of NASCAR’s best superspeedway racers are Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski, who are also facing off in Barstool Sportsbook’s Masters of Superspeedway Racing Matchup.
Let’s take a deeper look at this matchup, including the smartest possible way for bettors to approach it on Sunday.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for this weekend’s NASCAR action at Talladega Superspeedway.
NASCAR YellaWood 500 at Talladega Betting Pick
*Odds as of Friday morning
When it comes to betting NASCAR driver matchups at superspeedways like Talladega, I’m biased toward underdogs simply based on years of watching wild racing at these tracks.
While we can do our best to project speed week in and week out, the sheer randomness of pack racing at Talladega pulls every driver matchup closer to a coin-flip, therefore making dogs more appetizing than being forced to lay a bigger moneyline price with the favorites.
So when it comes to Sunday’s intriguing Denny Hamlin (-132) vs. Brad Keselowski (+102) driver matchup, that’s exactly my plan.
Over the last two seasons, Hamlin has been the top superspeedway racer in the series, highlighted by the top average finish (8.4), the most laps led and the best driver rating over seven total races at Daytona and Talladega.
However, when we isolate just recent performances at Talladega, Hamlin vs. Keselowski appears much closer.
Since 2019, Kez owns the best driver rating and the best average running position at Talladega while Hamlin sits way down in 17th and 23rd, respectively.
Sure, there is plenty of randomness involved and will be again on Sunday, but based on Keselowski’s history at this track and the aforementioned unpredictability, give me the plus-money in this matchup.
The Bet: Keselowski (+102) over Hamlin