Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Chase Elliott has Roval right where he wants it

Chase Elliott is tied for the final transfer spot heading into Sunday's elimination race at Charlotte Motor Speedway — probably not where the defending champ was hoping to be before we even escape the Round of 12. He's not sweating, however, as the No. 9 driver is the two-time defending winner of this weekend's event. If the Round of 8 started today, these upcoming drivers would be the first four out and the last four in. Fortunately for the Round of 12 playoff drivers, they control their own destiny in the hunt for a championship. Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte (2 p.m. ET, NBC/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) could shake things up even further. Take a look at who's on the bubble.

Alex Bowman: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below eighth: 52
Full standings
Trending: Mostly cold — Bowman closed out the Round of 16 with a strong Bristol showing and he'll need another one at Charlotte ... because his other four playoff finishes have all been outside the top 10.
Roval outlook: Warm — Bowman landed a runner-up in 2019 and has finished top eight in all three Roval races to date, but has just two total laps led across them.

William Byron: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below eighth: 44
Full standings
Trending: Mostly cold — like Bowman, Byron's lone good finish in the playoffs came at Bristol and again like his teammate, he is in desperate need of a big-time Roval rebound.
Roval outlook: Hot — it looks good for Byron to have a shot at the win this weekend, which might be his only path forward. He was among the lap leaders in each of the last two races at the Roval and Hendrick cars have dominated road courses in 2021.

Christopher Bell: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below eighth: 28
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — Bell has a pair of top fives in the playoffs (Richmond, Talladega) but his other three finishes have all been 20th or worse.
Roval outlook: Neutral — Bell has just one Roval start under his belt — 24th, last year — but did win the season's first road-course race at the similarly-converted Daytona.

Kevin Harvick: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below eighth: 9
Full standings
Trending: Very warm — with five straight top 10s Harvick feels destined for a breakthrough win before the season is up, the only question is if he'll still be championship-eligible when he does.
Roval outlook: Warm — Harvick has taken well to the Roval thus far, with a 7.7 average finish and a race-high 34 laps led en route to a P3 in 2019. He doesn't need to win, but can't afford a catastrophic day.

Kyle Busch: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above ninth: 9
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — Busch has two top 10s and two finishes outside the top 20 in his last four races, and has struggled to find consistency for most of the season.
Roval outlook: Ice cold — this could be the end of the line for Busch's 2021 title hopes, as he'll have to overcome a dreadful Roval history that has seen him finish 30th or worse in each of the three runnings to date.

Chase Elliott: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above ninth: 9
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — like a lot of his fellow bubble drivers, Elliott has a pair of strong races and three finishes that didn't do him any favors.
Roval outlook: Scorching hot – no need to worry for Elliott, however, as he's won two straight races at the Roval and is the consistent favorite any time the series heads to a road course.

Ryan Blaney: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above ninth: 15
Full standings
Trending: Lukewarm — Blaney had three straight top 10s from Richmond to Vegas, but has two finishes of 15th or worse in the other two playoff races.
Roval outlook: Hot — Blaney won the inaugural Roval race back in 2018 amd turned in top eights in each of the last two, including 14 laps led en route to a P5 last year.

Martin Truex Jr.: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above ninth: 20
Full standings
Trending: Hot — Truex has a win and four top sevens in five playoff races and his best tracks might still be ahead of him.

Roval outlook: Warm — there's a good chance the 2017 champ could find his way to Victory Lane this weekend, having been in position to win in 2018 before fate/a spinning Jimmie Johnson intervened and finished seventh in each of the last two.