Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Texas two-step with Hamlin, Kyle Busch

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

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Kyle Larson (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-4

Fastlane forecast: Larson has two wins on 1.5-mile tracks this season and the second-most points scored – an average of 46.3 in those seven races. One note of warning: He has crashed out of three of his last five starts at Texas. He did win the All-Star Race here in June, but that had a different rules package than what we’ll see Sunday. I plotted my uses for Larson around having him for every 1.5-mile race in the playoffs, and I'm not shying away from that now.

Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has three wins at Texas with one coming on the repaved track in 2019. This track has been a mixed bag for him with a win and four top 10s to go with four finishes outside the top 20 in his last nine starts. He won the most recent 1.5-mile race this season and has the third-most points on that track type. He has not scored fewer than 35 points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. For the longest race left, I want the best in my lineup, and that includes Hamlin.

Kyle Busch (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: This season, Busch has the best average finish (3.9) and most points – an average of 47.1 points per race – on 1.5-mile tracks. He has four wins at Texas – two since the track was repaved before the 2017 races there. He also has four straight top 10s and the most points there over that stretch (averaging 42 points per race). Similar to Larson, I plotted my uses to make sure I had Busch for the 1.5-milers based on his strengths in ’21.

Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney has six top-eight finishes in his last seven starts at Texas, and in the race prior to that run, he won both stages. Over the last four races here, YRB has the third-most points – an average of 35.8 points per race. For the season, he has the sixth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks, his best performances coming at Atlanta and Las Vegas with a pair of top fives at each track. This and Martinsville are his most favorable tracks left.

Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Fastlane forecast: Truex has five top 10s in his last eight Texas starts with his stronger runs tending to come in the playoff race. This season, he has scored the fifth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks with only one race of fewer than 32 points out of the seven on that track type. Of the tracks left, I'd prioritize Kansas and Martinsville over Texas, which is why at two uses he won't be in my lineup. But at three uses left, he's as solid a play as there is.

Joey Logano (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: The stats at Texas say Logano is worth the start – nine top 10s in his last 10 starts there and the fourth-most points scored over the last four races. The 2021 stats on 1.5-mile tracks say something else entirely: avoid. He has scored the 16th-most points on that track type – the lowest amount among playoff drivers. I'm staying away, but I also only have one use left. If you have three uses left, you could consider a garage stash.

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won three of the last four fall races at Texas – those are the only wins he has there. The 16th-place finish at last October here snapped a 12-race streak of top 10s at this track. This season, he has scored the 11th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks – at just more than 30 points per race and has not led a lap on that track type. The past history says to use him, but the lack of results on this track type this year suggest a garage stash at best.

Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch may only have a win and three top fives at Texas, but he does have 23 top 10s in 36 starts. Since the track repave, the veteran driver has been a top-10 machine with eight straight top 10s. Over the last four races in the Lone Star State, he has the sixth-most points and is one of two drivers (his brother, Kyle, is the other) to score top 10s in every race. The lone concern: He has just the 14th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski was one of five drivers to score top 10s in both Texas races last season (that club is all three Penske drivers and both Busch brothers). Those back-to-back top 10s came after a stretch of three finishes outside the top 30 in four Texas starts. For the season, he has scored the eighth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks. Of the Round of 8 tracks, I'd prioritize Kansas and Martinsville ahead of Texas for the 2012 champ.

SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron has two top 10s in six starts at Texas. After his elimination last year in the Round of 16, the young driver scored three top-eight finishes in the next four races. He has the fourth-best point total – an average of 38.6 points – on 1.5-mile tracks this season. He has finished outside the top 10 in the last two races on that track type, but he had plenty of speed at Las Vegas – a cut tire and shaky strategy hindered his day.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: The sample size of Cup races at Texas is small for Reddick, but he was the runner-up finisher here last summer. On the season, he has scored the 10th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks – more than Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch and Joey Logano. In his last four 1.5-mile races, he is averaging 42 points per race and has four straight top 10s.

SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman has two straight top fives in the fall race at Texas. Those stand as his only top fives/top 10s in 11 starts at Texas. On the season, he has scored the ninth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks with four races of at least 36 points. His up-and-down season makes him a tough play to trust, but he carries a lot of upside given Hendrick's speed on intermediates.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Dillon is the most recent points-race winner at Texas as he scored a victory last summer here. That race stands as one of two top 10s for Dillon in 16 starts at Texas. Those stats aren't great, but his performance on 1.5-mile tracks this season is nothing to sneeze at. He has not finished outside the top 13 in the seven races at that track type and averages nearly 30 points.

STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Elliott (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: This avoid is as much about his recent history at Texas as is about how favorable the rest of the schedule is, especially if you are down to two uses or less. The reigning champ has finished outside the top 10 in the last four races at Texas. His recent runs at Kansas, Martinsville and Phoenix have produced much better results – I'd prioritize the first two as uses.

STAY AWAY FROM: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: Yes, Bell had a "podium" finish in the fall last year at Texas – a third-place run. However, the 2021 results on 1.5-mile tracks have been a lot more down than up for the young driver with four finishes outside the top 20, just two top 10s and five races with less than 20 points. He's off my radar with Phoenix standing out as a potential use in a few weeks.

STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats

Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 250-1

Fastlane forecast: Among drivers with more than two starts at Texas, Jones has the best average finish (10.3) and six top 10s in nine starts. Don't be fooled by those stats, though, as those starts all came with Furniture Row and JGR. On the season, he has the 25th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks with only one top 10 in those seven races.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick; Garage: William Byron



Just missed the cut: Martin Truex Jr. (usage concerns), Kevin Harvick, Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch


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with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.




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