Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Make Larson’s final use count at Kansas

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

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Kyle Larson (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-4

Fastlane forecast: Larson's Texas win locks him into the Championship 4, but remember, he won't get stage points at Phoenix. If you have one use remaining, this is the spot to use it at. Larson led 132 laps at this track in the spring before late contact impacted his end result, and he has been THE car to beat all year on 1.5-mile tracks. He has the most laps led on 1.5-mile tracks by nearly 1,000 laps, owns three wins and is averaging 47.8 points on that track type.

Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has won two of the last four Kansas races but also finished outside the top 10 in four of the last six there. For the season, he has the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks. That said, he has been better with the 750-horsepower package that will be used at Martinsville next weekend. If you have one use left, I'd save him for that race. If you have two uses left, play him here, especially since I expect him to be a Championship 4 finalist at Phoenix.

Kyle Busch (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Fastlane forecast: The two-time champion is the most recent winner at Kansas and has just two finishes outside the top 10 in his last 13 starts there. Only Kyle Larson has earned more points on 1.5-mile tracks this season, as Busch has an average of 46.3 points and finished in the top 10 in every 1.5-mile track race this season. At one use, I'm rolling with him here because he has been better this year on the intermediate tracks.

Chase Elliott (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-2

Fastlane forecast: Elliott won this race in 2018 and has five top-six finishes in the last six races at Kansas. Since 2019 – a stretch of five races – he has scored the most points at Kansas with an average of 43.6 points. He has a streak of five straight top-seven finishes on 1.5-mile tracks that started with a fifth-place run at Kansas in May. At one use, I'd hold him back for Martinsville, but at two uses, I'd spend one here.

Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Truex swept the 2017 races at Kansas for his only wins here. Since then, he has five top-six finishes and six top-10 finishes in the last seven races there. He only has scored the 10th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season, but he did run sixth at Kansas in May. All four of his wins have come with the 750-horsepower package this season, so at one use, I feel you need to save him for Martinsville. At two uses, I'd lean toward using one in this race.

Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: While Blaney's last five Kansas starts have only produced one top 10, he had five top 10s in the seven starts before that. He was running in the top three late this spring when contact with Kyle Larson hindered both their finishes. His 1.5-mile stats have been strong all season with the fifth-most points. Now, if you have one use, I'd save it for Martinsville as that has been a much stronger track for him of late.

Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's top-five run at Texas was an encouraging sign heading into a track I had the 2012 champion earmarked for. He has two wins at Kansas with the most recent coming in 2019. He also has four top-four finishes in his last five runs there and the second-most points scored in that stretch. He also has the sixth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season with both playoff races at that track type producing at least 35 points.

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Coming off a runner-up finish at Texas, Byron comes to a track where he has scored four straight top 10s. He has the eighth-most points at Kansas over that stretch. For the 2021 season, Byron has the fourth-most points scored on 1.5-mile tracks at an even 40 points per race. I am bullish on him finishing the season strong, and he is certainly an option for a use at any of the final three races this season.

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick has three wins at Kansas and also back-to-back runner-up finishes. Over the last five races here, he has the third-most points – an average of 41.2 points per race. The 2014 champion has the ninth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks and found his footing on that track length of late with three races of at least 39 points in the last five.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: In four Cup Series starts at Kansas, Reddick has two top 10s and three top-13 finishes. It has been one of his better tracks in his initial run in the Cup ranks. His top-10 run at Texas serves as a reminder of how effective he is on this track type as he has the eighth-most points and five straight top 10s on it.

SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman has four top-10 finishes in his last six Kansas starts. The best of those was a runner-up finish in the 2019 spring race. He scored the 11th-most points this season on 1.5-mile tracks with the last two of those races seeing him total 19 points. That jives with an up-and-down season that has seen him post just three top 10s in the past 11 races.

SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: While Bell's 1.5-mile numbers scared us off at Texas, there is something to be said for a driver on a bit of a roll across all track types. He enters Kansas with three straight top 10s (across 'Dega, the Roval and Texas) and has averaged 33.7 points over that stretch. He has one top 10 in three Kansas starts.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats

Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: Buescher has three top 10s in his last eight Kansas starts, including an eighth-place run in the spring. He was enjoying a top-12 run at Texas last Sunday before a late wreck. Even so, he still has the 14th-most points this season on 1.5-mile tracks. If you are looking to go a bit off the board with a pick, he's an option.

STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano is the defending race winner and has three Cup wins at Kansas. The 2020 playoff win is his only top-10 finish in his last five starts at Kansas, and he has seven finishes outside the top 10 in his last 11 starts there. He also only has the 17th-most points scored on 1.5-mile tracks this season – the lowest by a lot among the remaining playoff drivers. Hold him back for Martinsville and, if you have two uses, Phoenix as well.


STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: Dillon has a solid resume this season on 1.5-mile tracks this season with the 12th-most points and a slew of top-15 finishes. His 10th-place run at Kansas in May marked his first top 10 here in nine starts. I think there a number of plays that offer more upside for this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto's lone top 10 in 13 Kansas starts came in the spring. He has not scored more than 28 points in the last four 1.5-mile races this season. The bigger issue for me is the performances as his WBR tenure comes to a close with the 19th-most points over the last seven races.


My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, William Byron; Garage: Martin Truex Jr.



Just missed the cut: Denny Hamlin (saving final usage), Tyler Reddick, Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney (saving final usage)


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.




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