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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Ride the momentum of William Byron for Phoenix
By RJ Kraft | Published: November 5, 2021 18
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
The Championship 4 DO NOT receive stage points in this race. Despite that, if you have any uses available with them, it's advisable to play them as the Championship 4 always tend to run at or near the front of the field in this race.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
The Championship 4 DO NOT receive stage points in this race. Despite that, if you have any uses available with them, it's advisable to play them as the Championship 4 always tend to run at or near the front of the field in this race.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-4
Fastlane forecast: Larson has two wins this season with the 750-horsepower package on ovals. At Phoenix, he has scored top-seven finishes in his last five starts there and his 11.6 average finish is third-best among the championship contenders. There's no denying he's been the best car all season but JGR has been right there (if not slightly better) with Hendrick on the 750-horsepower tracks. As of now, though, I'm leaning toward a heavy use of Larson in my bonus picks.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-4
Fastlane forecast: Larson has two wins this season with the 750-horsepower package on ovals. At Phoenix, he has scored top-seven finishes in his last five starts there and his 11.6 average finish is third-best among the championship contenders. There's no denying he's been the best car all season but JGR has been right there (if not slightly better) with Hendrick on the 750-horsepower tracks. As of now, though, I'm leaning toward a heavy use of Larson in my bonus picks.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is in the Championship 4 for the third straight year and nearly entered with a victory before late contact with Alex Bowman snuffed away the win. He has one victory this season with the 750-horsepower package. He has two victories at Phoenix in his Cup career and four top-five finishes in his last five starts there. His 10.8 average finish there is best among the title contenders.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is in the Championship 4 for the third straight year and nearly entered with a victory before late contact with Alex Bowman snuffed away the win. He has one victory this season with the 750-horsepower package. He has two victories at Phoenix in his Cup career and four top-five finishes in his last five starts there. His 10.8 average finish there is best among the title contenders.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the reigning champion and reigning race winner. Is it possible he's the underdog heading into this weekend? His Phoenix numbers are solid -- 11.2 average finish and three straight top-seven finishes at the 1-mile track. His 750-horsepower package oval stats are not nearly as strong as the other title contenders, but he led over half of the Martinsville race and a quarter of the Bristol night race before misfortune struck.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the reigning champion and reigning race winner. Is it possible he's the underdog heading into this weekend? His Phoenix numbers are solid -- 11.2 average finish and three straight top-seven finishes at the 1-mile track. His 750-horsepower package oval stats are not nearly as strong as the other title contenders, but he led over half of the Martinsville race and a quarter of the Bristol night race before misfortune struck.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: What if I told you the man who rode 1.5-mile dominance to a 2017 championship did not win on one such track this season but instead nabbed all four of his victories on 750-horsepower tracks? This is true and one of those wins was at Phoenix in the spring. That stat makes him a strong prospect as the top Toyota. While his overall body of work there is suspect (five top fives in 31 starts), he does have four top fives in his last eight starts in the Arizona desert.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: What if I told you the man who rode 1.5-mile dominance to a 2017 championship did not win on one such track this season but instead nabbed all four of his victories on 750-horsepower tracks? This is true and one of those wins was at Phoenix in the spring. That stat makes him a strong prospect as the top Toyota. While his overall body of work there is suspect (five top fives in 31 starts), he does have four top fives in his last eight starts in the Arizona desert.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Let's read off Logano's last three Phoenix starts going back to March of 2020 ... first, third and second. In those three races, he scored the most points -- an average of 46.7 points -- and led over one-third of the laps (328 laps led out of 940 laps run) -- also the most among drivers over those three runs. He has been significantly better all season on the 750-horsepower tracks and not using him at Martinsville allows me to deploy him here.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Let's read off Logano's last three Phoenix starts going back to March of 2020 ... first, third and second. In those three races, he scored the most points -- an average of 46.7 points -- and led over one-third of the laps (328 laps led out of 940 laps run) -- also the most among drivers over those three runs. He has been significantly better all season on the 750-horsepower tracks and not using him at Martinsville allows me to deploy him here.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three victories at Phoenix, including two wins in the last six races there. Before two straight finishes outside the top 10 there, he had nine top-five finishes and 10 top-seven finishes in his last 10 starts at the 1-mile track. The two-time champion has been up-and-down with the 750-horsepower package this season -- the 550-package was more his strong suit -- but he's worth the play here if you have the use.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three victories at Phoenix, including two wins in the last six races there. Before two straight finishes outside the top 10 there, he had nine top-five finishes and 10 top-seven finishes in his last 10 starts at the 1-mile track. The two-time champion has been up-and-down with the 750-horsepower package this season -- the 550-package was more his strong suit -- but he's worth the play here if you have the use.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: The "Cactus King" has nine wins at Phoenix -- the most among any driver. Plus, this has been his personal playground for his entire SHR tenure -- five of the nine wins have come since he moved over to SHR. He has not finished outside the top 10 at this track in 16 straight starts, and he's been much stronger all season on the 750-horsepower tracks. That makes him a strong start for Sunday's race.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: The "Cactus King" has nine wins at Phoenix -- the most among any driver. Plus, this has been his personal playground for his entire SHR tenure -- five of the nine wins have come since he moved over to SHR. He has not finished outside the top 10 at this track in 16 straight starts, and he's been much stronger all season on the 750-horsepower tracks. That makes him a strong start for Sunday's race.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Since his Round of 12 elimination, Byron has scored the second-most points in the past three races -- an average of 49 points per race with no finish worse than sixth. At Phoenix, he has three straight top 10s and four top 10s in his last six starts there. On top of that, he's been one of the more consistent drivers with the 750-horsepower package this season.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Since his Round of 12 elimination, Byron has scored the second-most points in the past three races -- an average of 49 points per race with no finish worse than sixth. At Phoenix, he has three straight top 10s and four top 10s in his last six starts there. On top of that, he's been one of the more consistent drivers with the 750-horsepower package this season.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Like his teammates, Phoenix has been a solid spot for Blaney in recent years. In his last five starts there, he has two top fives, four top 10s and the fifth-most points over that stretch. In three of his last five races with the 750-horsepower package on ovals, he has scored at least 33 points. He comes into this race with five top 10s in his last eight 2021 races.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Like his teammates, Phoenix has been a solid spot for Blaney in recent years. In his last five starts there, he has two top fives, four top 10s and the fifth-most points over that stretch. In three of his last five races with the 750-horsepower package on ovals, he has scored at least 33 points. He comes into this race with five top 10s in his last eight 2021 races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's final race of his Penske tenure comes at a track that he's been pretty solid at of late. He has the third-most points in the last three Phoenix races and also has two straight top-four finishes at the Arizona track. While he has been up-and-down on the 750-horsepower package this season, he has been much more up of late with three races of at least 43 points or more in the last five ovals to use that rules package.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's final race of his Penske tenure comes at a track that he's been pretty solid at of late. He has the third-most points in the last three Phoenix races and also has two straight top-four finishes at the Arizona track. While he has been up-and-down on the 750-horsepower package this season, he has been much more up of late with three races of at least 43 points or more in the last five ovals to use that rules package.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell scored a top-10 finish at Phoenix in the spring -- his first in three Cup starts at Phoenix. The 750-horsepower package has been a strength for Bell this season with top 10s on ovals like Phoenix, Martinsville in the spring, both Richmond races, Nashville and Loudon. That success would seem to bode well for Sunday's race.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell scored a top-10 finish at Phoenix in the spring -- his first in three Cup starts at Phoenix. The 750-horsepower package has been a strength for Bell this season with top 10s on ovals like Phoenix, Martinsville in the spring, both Richmond races, Nashville and Loudon. That success would seem to bode well for Sunday's race.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: In Busch's last five Phoenix starts, he has two top-seven finishes and four top-12 finishes. And while he struggled with the 750-horsepower package at Bristol and that led to his elimination, he did just score a seventh-place finish with it at Martinsville. Not to mention he comes into this race with five 2021 races of at least 31 points or more in the last six.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: In Busch's last five Phoenix starts, he has two top-seven finishes and four top-12 finishes. And while he struggled with the 750-horsepower package at Bristol and that led to his elimination, he did just score a seventh-place finish with it at Martinsville. Not to mention he comes into this race with five 2021 races of at least 31 points or more in the last six.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: All of Almirola's top-10 finishes in 2021 have come with the 750-horsepower package. Those races include his New Hampshire win as well as his sixth-place run on Sunday at Martinsville. In his last seven Phoenix starts (all with SHR), he has four top 10s and six top-13 finishes. He's likely to be a lesser owned option if you are looking to zag a bit.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: All of Almirola's top-10 finishes in 2021 have come with the 750-horsepower package. Those races include his New Hampshire win as well as his sixth-place run on Sunday at Martinsville. In his last seven Phoenix starts (all with SHR), he has four top 10s and six top-13 finishes. He's likely to be a lesser owned option if you are looking to zag a bit.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: There is a myth around Bowman's Phoenix stats that because of that one run he had filling in for Dale Jr., winning the pole and finishing sixth in the fall of 2016 that he's good there. The stats say otherwise as that is his only top 10 there in 12 starts. Despite the Martinsville win, his Phoenix stats and overall inconsistency make him a tough play to bank on.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: There is a myth around Bowman's Phoenix stats that because of that one run he had filling in for Dale Jr., winning the pole and finishing sixth in the fall of 2016 that he's good there. The stats say otherwise as that is his only top 10 there in 12 starts. Despite the Martinsville win, his Phoenix stats and overall inconsistency make him a tough play to bank on.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 250-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon has by in large been a top-15 machine across the board for the past season, but that is not the case at Phoenix. He has finished no better than 17th in his last five starts there and has just two top 10s in 15 starts in the desert. If you are looking for major points, he has not scored over 30 points in a single race since the regular-season finale at Daytona.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 250-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon has by in large been a top-15 machine across the board for the past season, but that is not the case at Phoenix. He has finished no better than 17th in his last five starts there and has just two top 10s in 15 starts in the desert. If you are looking for major points, he has not scored over 30 points in a single race since the regular-season finale at Daytona.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: In 11 Phoenix starts, Buescher has no top 10s, no top 15s and an average finish of 23.6. That flies counter to his recent run of three top 10s in his last five starts of 2021. The only top-10 finish for a Roush Cup car at Phoenix in the last four years came from Matt Kenseth in 2018.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: In 11 Phoenix starts, Buescher has no top 10s, no top 15s and an average finish of 23.6. That flies counter to his recent run of three top 10s in his last five starts of 2021. The only top-10 finish for a Roush Cup car at Phoenix in the last four years came from Matt Kenseth in 2018.
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Christian Petersen | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend before practice and qualifying: William Byron, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney; Garage: Christopher Bell
Just missed the cut: Kurt Busch
All out of: The Championship 4 drivers and Kyle Busch
Remember there is practice on Friday and qualifying on Saturday this weekend.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Kurt Busch
All out of: The Championship 4 drivers and Kyle Busch
Remember there is practice on Friday and qualifying on Saturday this weekend.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.