Fantasy Fastlane: Rolling double deuces in Las Vegas

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.


PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-2

Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Auto Club seemingly picked up right where he left off in 2021. He now has five wins in his last seven races and could make that six out of the last eight this weekend at Las Vegas. Larson is the defending race winner and led 198 of a possible 534 laps (37.1%) at this track last year. Vegas is his third-best track by average finish of active venues with more than one start. Lock him in for this weekend.

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: While Blaney may not have a win at Las Vegas, he has just two finishes outside the top seven in his last 10 starts there. In fact, of regular-season tracks where he has more than one start, this is his best one based on average finish (8.8) and that average finish is second only to Penske teammate Joey Logano among Sunday's field. There will be some pockets where we can pull back on Blaney, but this weekend he needs to be played.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the active driver with the best average finish at Las Vegas. Logano’s 8.6 is tops in Sunday's field, and it is his best regular-season track with more than one start. He has won the spring race twice – in both 2019 and 2020. The 22 had good pace at Auto Club and outside of hitting the wall in qualifying was able to avoid incident. I'm going heavy on Penske early as it seems to have the most pace in the Next Gen to start.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: The results don't tell the full story for Elliott in Las Vegas. His most recent race there saw him finish second – one of three top fives he has at this track in 10 starts. Based on loop data, he has the top green-flag speed here. In both of his 2020 starts, he led at least 70 laps before late-race issues derailed his run and sent him to finishes outside the top 20. The priority for me with Elliott remains road courses and short tracks.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Of the drivers in the Toyota camp, MTJ is my preferred play among them this weekend. Part of that has to do with a greater run of consistency at Las Vegas than Denny Hamlin as he has two wins, six top fives and eight top 10s in his last nine starts there. And part of it honestly is a gut feeling the 19 team will be a factor this weekend. His 10.4 average finish is fourth-best in Sunday's field, and that’s more than good enough to earn a spot.

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's last three Las Vegas races have seen him finish first-fourth-third, and that stretch has also seen him score the most points at this track. Prior to that, he had one top 10 in the previous five races in the desert. Add in that Toyota seems to be off to a slow start and there’s a case to be made to slow play that group out of the gate. That idea is hard, though, when you look at his recent numbers.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: The hometown hero has one win at Las Vegas from 2009 and did post back-to-back third-place runs here in both races last year. His 11.5 average finish is sixth-best among drivers in Sunday's race – which is a nice mark. The concern is the struggles that the Toyotas have had out of the gate with just one top five to start the season. He's not a bad option, but I'd rank him behind Kyle Larson and the Penske vets for sure.

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has three wins and 12 top-seven finishes in his last 13 Las Vegas starts. It's hard to beat those numbers at this track. A new team and new car offer some variables that add a layer of uncertainty. And then there’s Keselowski's penchant for being involved in what seems like every on-track incident this year. That said, before cars hit the track I am inclined to have him in my garage to start.

SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats

Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Jones' third-place run and fastest car during green-flag runs was an eye-opening development at Auto Club. Admittedly I wrote this – that I would rather be a week too late on Jones and this is now that week. It will be interesting to see if the speed the 43 team showed carries over to Las Vegas – a track he claimed a top 10 at last year with Petty GMS.

SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: The odds say he's not a sleeper but a favorite. Speed was not an issue for Byron at Auto Club as he had the third-fastest car under green-flag conditions – faster than eventual race winner Kyle Larson. Yes, he wrecked out for the second straight week and that needs to be corrected. Las Vegas could be the tonic to cure that for the young driver. He has top 10s in two of his last five starts there.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Based on his showing at Auto Club, I'm not sure how much longer we can get away with calling Reddick a sleeper. He won both stages, led the most laps and had the second-fastest car based on green-flag speed before a cut tire derailed his day. He finished sixth in the most recent race at Las Vegas for his only top 10 there in four starts.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's runner-up finisher has a pair of top-five finishes at Las Vegas and a string of top-13 results – six in his last eight starts at the 1.5-mile track. He has long been a steady play for the intermediate tracks – meaning he may not post a big points number but should get you between 27-30 or so points.

SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Meet the only driver with top 10s in both races so far this season, and he only has three stage points. What he has done is methodically recover from poor starting position (34.5) to nab great finishes (5.5). His Vegas numbers are suspect but were solid during SHR’s runs of 2018-19 – average finish of 9.0 in those four races.

WAIT AND SEE: Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: If Harvick's top-10 finish at Auto Club seemed to come out of nowhere, that's because it did. He had the 24th-best green-flag speed, according to loop data. That makes us take a big pause before a 1.5-mile track. Last year was the first time since Vegas started hosting two races in 2018 that Harvick did not lead a single lap there. He does have two wins with SHR there, but I need to see speed off the track for this truck to trust a use.

WAIT AND SEE: Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: When I included this section for the first time last week, I noted Bowman was a driver who could find himself a fixture in this area. Different woes left him with two finishes outside the top 20 in last year's two Vegas races, but before that, he had an 8.75 average finish in his previous four starts here. At Auto Club, the 48 seemed a tick behind teammates on raw speed.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch does have a win here in the 2020 playoff race, but the overall body of work at this track is far from his finest. His 20.9 average finish (in 24 starts) is the worst mark for the 2004 champion at any active track on the circuit where he has more than one start. The percentages just don’t favor a start here, but they'll be other opportunities ahead.

STAY AWAY FROM: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: The rough start for the Toyota camp is perhaps best illustrated by Bell, who has totaled four points through two races and has finished 34th and 36th to open the season. Vegas doesn’t look like it will be a spot for him to turn things around as he has three finishes of 24th or worse in his last four starts at that track.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron; Garage: Brad Keselowski

.

Just missed the cut: Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Erik Jones, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch.


Bonus picks: Kyle Larson over Chase Elliott, Joey Logano over Kyle Busch, William Byron over Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon over Kurt Busch. Toughest call pre-on-track activity was Byron over Reddick – could easily see myself flip that one the other way at some point.



Check back for our “Fantasy Update” piece Sunday for the final lineup. Pat DeCola, Power Rankings writer extraordinaire, will be filling in this weekend as I will be unavailable. Sunday's race is at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.