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Fantasy Fastlane: The weekend of the underdogs at COTA
By Dustin Albino | Published: March 25, 2022 12
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START: Chase Elliott | View Stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 3-1
The No. 9 car has won seven of the last 14 races on road courses, dating back to Elliott's first win in the Cup Series in 2018 at Watkins Glen. Beating out the rain last spring, the 2020 Cup champion is the defending winner of the inaugural race at COTA. Over the last 14 races at road courses, Elliott has led more than 27% of the laps (333/1,233). Look for Elliott to be the fourth Hendrick car in Victory Lane through the first six races of the year.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 3-1
The No. 9 car has won seven of the last 14 races on road courses, dating back to Elliott's first win in the Cup Series in 2018 at Watkins Glen. Beating out the rain last spring, the 2020 Cup champion is the defending winner of the inaugural race at COTA. Over the last 14 races at road courses, Elliott has led more than 27% of the laps (333/1,233). Look for Elliott to be the fourth Hendrick car in Victory Lane through the first six races of the year.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MUST START: Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Have you seen the roll the No. 1 team has been on? With three straight podium finishes, Chastain is on the verge of breaking through to Victory Lane. Last year at COTA, he earned his first top-five effort at the Cup level. Don't be surprised to see Chastain, once again, battling for the checkered flag.
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Have you seen the roll the No. 1 team has been on? With three straight podium finishes, Chastain is on the verge of breaking through to Victory Lane. Last year at COTA, he earned his first top-five effort at the Cup level. Don't be surprised to see Chastain, once again, battling for the checkered flag.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START: Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Last year, Cindric was getting familiar with the Cup Series on road courses, competing three times. But in his four-year stint in the Xfinity Series, road courses were Cindric's bread and butter, winning five times. With the Next Gen cars driving similar to sports cars and Cindric having a diverse racing background, the No. 2 team looks to end a three-race skid of 19th or worse.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Last year, Cindric was getting familiar with the Cup Series on road courses, competing three times. But in his four-year stint in the Xfinity Series, road courses were Cindric's bread and butter, winning five times. With the Next Gen cars driving similar to sports cars and Cindric having a diverse racing background, the No. 2 team looks to end a three-race skid of 19th or worse.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
MUST START: AJ Allmendinger | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
In 2022, Allmendinger is running all six road-course races for Kaulig Racing. We saw what the team can do in a limited capacity last year, winning the inaugural race at the Indianapolis Road Course. The 'Dinger's resume speaks for itself, picking up both of his Cup wins when turning left and right. He finished fifth last year at COTA.
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
In 2022, Allmendinger is running all six road-course races for Kaulig Racing. We saw what the team can do in a limited capacity last year, winning the inaugural race at the Indianapolis Road Course. The 'Dinger's resume speaks for itself, picking up both of his Cup wins when turning left and right. He finished fifth last year at COTA.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 22-1
After scoring his first victory two weeks ago, is Briscoe considered a sleeper any longer? Potentially so, given he has just one top-10 finish on an oval that isn't a superspeedway. The good thing is COTA isn't an oval and the No. 14 car shined on road courses in Briscoe's rookie campaign, picking up three top-10 finishes in 2021. This is also the anniversary of Briscoe's first top 10 in the Cup Series.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 22-1
After scoring his first victory two weeks ago, is Briscoe considered a sleeper any longer? Potentially so, given he has just one top-10 finish on an oval that isn't a superspeedway. The good thing is COTA isn't an oval and the No. 14 car shined on road courses in Briscoe's rookie campaign, picking up three top-10 finishes in 2021. This is also the anniversary of Briscoe's first top 10 in the Cup Series.
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Kevork Djansezian | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 80-1
McDowell and road courses go together like nuts and bolts. The veteran driver is steady, finishing seventh at COTA last spring. The No. 34 crew needs a good run, too, having finished 24th or worse in four straight races.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 80-1
McDowell and road courses go together like nuts and bolts. The veteran driver is steady, finishing seventh at COTA last spring. The No. 34 crew needs a good run, too, having finished 24th or worse in four straight races.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 80-1
When thinking of road courses, Buescher's name might not pop to mind. Ah, the sleeper. Quietly, he's ultra-consistent, scoring a top 10 at the Charlotte ROVAL last fall, and finishing no worse than 18th in the seven road courses from 2021. Entering COTA, the No. 17 team has consecutive top-10 efforts at Phoenix and Atlanta.
RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 80-1
When thinking of road courses, Buescher's name might not pop to mind. Ah, the sleeper. Quietly, he's ultra-consistent, scoring a top 10 at the Charlotte ROVAL last fall, and finishing no worse than 18th in the seven road courses from 2021. Entering COTA, the No. 17 team has consecutive top-10 efforts at Phoenix and Atlanta.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Eventually, Hamlin will get out of his five-race slump, having yet to record a top-10 finish in 2022. And although he's a respectable road-course racer with top-five finishes in four road-course races last year -- plus another in which he was dumped from the lead coming to the white flag -- save Hamlin for a later date.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Eventually, Hamlin will get out of his five-race slump, having yet to record a top-10 finish in 2022. And although he's a respectable road-course racer with top-five finishes in four road-course races last year -- plus another in which he was dumped from the lead coming to the white flag -- save Hamlin for a later date.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Since getting close to Victory Lane in the early 2010s at Watkins Glen, Brad Keselowski has struggled on road courses, scoring just one top 10 in seven starts last year. Save the No. 6 team for later in the season, particularly on oval tracks.
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Since getting close to Victory Lane in the early 2010s at Watkins Glen, Brad Keselowski has struggled on road courses, scoring just one top 10 in seven starts last year. Save the No. 6 team for later in the season, particularly on oval tracks.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 250-1
Wallace struggles on road courses, and the stats back it up. In the seven road courses last season, the No. 23 team finished 23rd or worse four times. He is, however, coming off consecutive top 15s at road courses, but using Wallace this weekend would not be your best usage of the No. 23 Toyota.
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 250-1
Wallace struggles on road courses, and the stats back it up. In the seven road courses last season, the No. 23 team finished 23rd or worse four times. He is, however, coming off consecutive top 15s at road courses, but using Wallace this weekend would not be your best usage of the No. 23 Toyota.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MY LINEUP: Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, AJ Allmendinger, Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain; Garage: Michael McDowell.
You can go down the rabbit hole of using Kyle Larson, who won three times on road courses in 2021, along with William Byron and other big-name drivers for COTA, but don't. Maximize a driver's value and save them for later in the season. It will, however, be interesting to see what drivers perform well on a dry COTA track, as opposed to last year's wet conditions.
You can go down the rabbit hole of using Kyle Larson, who won three times on road courses in 2021, along with William Byron and other big-name drivers for COTA, but don't. Maximize a driver's value and save them for later in the season. It will, however, be interesting to see what drivers perform well on a dry COTA track, as opposed to last year's wet conditions.