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Fantasy Fastlane: Expect a strong Joe Gibbs Racing showing in Richmond
By Dustin Albino | Published: April 1, 2022 11
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM as of March 31.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
MUST START: Martin Truex Jr. | View Stats
No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Odds: 9-1
It took Martin Truex Jr. long enough to win on a short track – 81 races – but since winning at Richmond three years ago, the No. 19 team hasn’t stopped. At Richmond, in particular, Truex has been stout, winning three of the past five races at the Virginia track. He enters the weekend with six straight top fives. Over the last 10 races at Richmond, Truex has led 1,157 laps (an average of 115.7 per race). Not having a great start to the year, we’ll see how the No. 19 team truly stacks up with the Next Gen car this weekend.
No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Odds: 9-1
It took Martin Truex Jr. long enough to win on a short track – 81 races – but since winning at Richmond three years ago, the No. 19 team hasn’t stopped. At Richmond, in particular, Truex has been stout, winning three of the past five races at the Virginia track. He enters the weekend with six straight top fives. Over the last 10 races at Richmond, Truex has led 1,157 laps (an average of 115.7 per race). Not having a great start to the year, we’ll see how the No. 19 team truly stacks up with the Next Gen car this weekend.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
MUST START: Denny Hamlin | View Stats
No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Odds: 10-1
If Truex has been the best driver at Richmond over the past 10 races, Hamlin is a close second, despite having not won since the fall race in 2016. In that 10-race span, the No. 11 bunch has eight top-five results, and led 404 of 800 laps at the track between the two races in 2021. Look for Hamlin to have his breakthrough run of the season – he still doesn’t have a top 10 this year – at Richmond.
No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Odds: 10-1
If Truex has been the best driver at Richmond over the past 10 races, Hamlin is a close second, despite having not won since the fall race in 2016. In that 10-race span, the No. 11 bunch has eight top-five results, and led 404 of 800 laps at the track between the two races in 2021. Look for Hamlin to have his breakthrough run of the season – he still doesn’t have a top 10 this year – at Richmond.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START: Christopher Bell | View Stats
No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Choosing Bell here shouldn’t be a surprise. The No. 20 team is coming off its first top-five result of the season at COTA, and historically Bell has been awfully competitive at Richmond. Last year, he earned top fives in both Richmond races, and had a knack for winning at “The Action Track” during his two-plus-year Xfinity Series stint, picking up three checkered flags in five starts.
No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Choosing Bell here shouldn’t be a surprise. The No. 20 team is coming off its first top-five result of the season at COTA, and historically Bell has been awfully competitive at Richmond. Last year, he earned top fives in both Richmond races, and had a knack for winning at “The Action Track” during his two-plus-year Xfinity Series stint, picking up three checkered flags in five starts.
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Dylan Buell | Getty Images
MUST START: Austin Dillon | View Stats
No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
You could be boring – I wouldn’t blame you – and just use the fourth JGR driver with Kyle Busch. But if you want to go off the beaten path, Dillon isn’t a bad choice. Admittedly, Richmond was once among his worst tracks on the schedule. However, over the last six races at the .75-mile circuit, he’s earned four top 10s and led a career-high 55 laps in September 2020. Dillon is also one of the few drivers to have experience in the Next Gen car at Richmond, testing in 2019.
No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
You could be boring – I wouldn’t blame you – and just use the fourth JGR driver with Kyle Busch. But if you want to go off the beaten path, Dillon isn’t a bad choice. Admittedly, Richmond was once among his worst tracks on the schedule. However, over the last six races at the .75-mile circuit, he’s earned four top 10s and led a career-high 55 laps in September 2020. Dillon is also one of the few drivers to have experience in the Next Gen car at Richmond, testing in 2019.
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Dylan Buell | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View Stats
No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Odds: 33-1
From the oddsmakers’ perspective, Dillon is a bigger sleeper than Almirola. Truly, either one fits in here. But Almirola has been known to get around flat, short tracks in the past, winning at a similar track at New Hampshire last season. Even in a struggling season last year, one of the No. 10 team’s best runs – aside from the victory – was at Richmond, placing sixth. Different car, sure. But a driver doesn’t forget how to get around a race track they enjoy.
No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Odds: 33-1
From the oddsmakers’ perspective, Dillon is a bigger sleeper than Almirola. Truly, either one fits in here. But Almirola has been known to get around flat, short tracks in the past, winning at a similar track at New Hampshire last season. Even in a struggling season last year, one of the No. 10 team’s best runs – aside from the victory – was at Richmond, placing sixth. Different car, sure. But a driver doesn’t forget how to get around a race track they enjoy.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Brad Keselowski | View Stats
No. 6 RFK Racing Ford
Odds: 50-1
Keselowski has been in the spotlight for the wrong reasons over the last week or so, but he’s a steal at 50-1 odds at Richmond. Yes, RFK Racing is in rebuild mode, but Keselowski has top-10 finishes in 50% of his starts at Richmond, including a pair of victories with the most recent coming in 2020.
No. 6 RFK Racing Ford
Odds: 50-1
Keselowski has been in the spotlight for the wrong reasons over the last week or so, but he’s a steal at 50-1 odds at Richmond. Yes, RFK Racing is in rebuild mode, but Keselowski has top-10 finishes in 50% of his starts at Richmond, including a pair of victories with the most recent coming in 2020.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suárez | View Stats
No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
While Suárez’s numbers aren’t as impressive at Richmond as some of his competitors – three top 10s in nine races – Trackhouse Racing is the talk of the garage this week. Maybe Suárez can follow up his teammate’s win at COTA by running towards the front on Sunday.
No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
While Suárez’s numbers aren’t as impressive at Richmond as some of his competitors – three top 10s in nine races – Trackhouse Racing is the talk of the garage this week. Maybe Suárez can follow up his teammate’s win at COTA by running towards the front on Sunday.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View Stats
No. 12 Team Penske Ford
Odds: 12-1
Oddsmakers must not have done their homework when it comes to Blaney at Richmond. By far, it’s his worst track on the Cup schedule, with just one top-10 finish in 11 starts. The No. 12 team did post results of 10th and 11th last year, so maybe the Next Gen will help Blaney’s cause at the track. I’m not buying it until I see it.
No. 12 Team Penske Ford
Odds: 12-1
Oddsmakers must not have done their homework when it comes to Blaney at Richmond. By far, it’s his worst track on the Cup schedule, with just one top-10 finish in 11 starts. The No. 12 team did post results of 10th and 11th last year, so maybe the Next Gen will help Blaney’s cause at the track. I’m not buying it until I see it.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View Stats
No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Because Bowman is the defending winner of this race, he’s going to be appealing to pick this week. But if you do a deeper dive, Richmond isn’t one of his better tracks on the circuit, having just one additional top 10 to his name at the track. Ten of his 11 total laps led at Richmond came in his victory last April.
No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Because Bowman is the defending winner of this race, he’s going to be appealing to pick this week. But if you do a deeper dive, Richmond isn’t one of his better tracks on the circuit, having just one additional top 10 to his name at the track. Ten of his 11 total laps led at Richmond came in his victory last April.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Briscoe | View Stats
No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Odds: 20-1
One of the most impressive drivers this season has been Briscoe. However, he’s never been stellar at Richmond, even during his full-time Xfinity days. Sure, he has a small sample size at the Cup level with an average finish of 19th in two Richmond starts, but I’d save the No. 14 team for later in the season. I think you’ll be using him a lot this year.
No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Odds: 20-1
One of the most impressive drivers this season has been Briscoe. However, he’s never been stellar at Richmond, even during his full-time Xfinity days. Sure, he has a small sample size at the Cup level with an average finish of 19th in two Richmond starts, but I’d save the No. 14 team for later in the season. I think you’ll be using him a lot this year.