The NASCAR Cup Series is set for the second edition of the Bristol Dirt Race on Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Drivers bred on the dirt-racing grassroots scene, including Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, are automatic favorites. What about the non-dirt racing background drivers, like last year’s race winner, Joey Logano?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola and Chase Wilhelm debate which one of those competitors has the best opportunity to snatch a win away from the field under the lights.
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DECOLA: Almost nothing went the way many expected things to go in last year’s inaugural running of dirt at the “Last Great Colosseum” – including the drivers who ran well.
Most foresaw either Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell or Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, two of the dirt-racing scene’s top competitors, stealing the show … which didn’t happen, as they actually wound up having their races derailed in the same wreck and both finished 29th or worse. Joey Logano, a champion of NASCAR but essentially a complete rookie on non-paved surfaces, led 61 laps en route to the win. Daniel Suárez, who joked during a mid-race interview he didn’t know what he was doing out there, landed Trackhouse Racing’s first-ever top five after leading 58 laps of his own.
Now with a Next Gen car that’s showing a proclivity toward parity in the early going, the field is once again wide open for this race. Of course, the dirt guys will likely still play a significant factor – and Bell/Larson are the two top favorites per oddsmakers – but it’s not a slam dunk that it’s their race for the taking. Logano and Suárez both make for good picks once again, but I’m actually going to go with last year’s Truck Series dirt race winner … Martin Truex Jr.
Lest we forget, MTJ went into Bristol, hopped into a truck for the first time since 2006 … and proceeded to lead 105 of 150 laps en route to the victory. On a surface he’s mostly unfamiliar with.
He also looked like he was headed toward his second W of the weekend in the Cup race, leading another race-high 126 laps in that one before fading to 19th.
This season has yet to see Truex land in Victory Lane, but he has been JGR’s best overall and most consistent driver to date. The team as a whole kind of had a big swing-and-a-miss at Martinsville Speedway, and the quartet of All-Stars will be hungry to make their mark on a 2022 campaign that so far has not seen them look like one of the elite teams.
A Truex win would give JGR two in the past three weeks (Denny Hamlin won at Richmond earlier this month), and of the four drivers, the speed in his No. 19 Toyota could give him the best shot.
Truex just needs to get past his teammate first.
WILHELM: Martin Truex Jr. will need to worry about William Byron before his teammates if he wants a victory at Bristol.
Despite his lack of practice on dirt, Byron qualified eighth and finished sixth in last year’s inaugural Bristol Dirt Race, a remarkable finish for a driver bred on asphalt racing. Prior to Sunday’s race, Byron set to compete in his first dirt late-model event on Thursday — FloRacing Late Model Challenge powered by Tezos at Volunteer Speedway in Bulls Gap, Tennessee. It’s perfect timing for Byron to gain valuable dirt-racing experience.
Also, Byron is a hot shoe at the moment. He put the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports back in Victory Lane last Sunday at Martinsville, becoming the first multi-win driver of the season. Byron also leads the field with stage points — 82 with two stage victories — five points ahead of Ryan Blaney.
The Las Vegas betting scene likes Byron’s chances, as well. He’s a 12-1 favorite to win on BetMGM, while Truex comes in at 14-1 odds.
You can’t buy momentum, and it’s hard to come by at the premier level. Right now, Byron has plenty of it. That’s dangerous for the rest of the field and could likely transform into a surprise win Sunday night.