Fantasy Fastlane: Will Denny Hamlin end his 2022 slump at Darlington?

MUST START:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
It would be totally understandable if you’re hesitant to start Hamlin this weekend at one of his better race tracks. In 2022, seemingly anything that can go wrong has gone wrong for the No. 11 team. Although he will be without crew chief Chris Gabehart, who is serving a four-race suspension for a tire falling off the car at Dover, Hamlin always finds a way to run toward the front at Darlington, specifically at the end of a long, green-flag run.

MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-1
While Larson has never captured the checkered flag at Darlington, he has been awfully close on several occasions. In the two races last year alone, he was the first bridesmaid and nearly pulled off a spectacular maneuver on the final lap of the Southern 500 to score the win. Dating back to 2019, he has three straight runner-up results at Darlington, and he has podium finishes in five of his last six races there.

MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1
While Harvick is still figuring out the Next Gen car, he has been elite at Darlington in recent memory. Since taking over the No. 4 car in 2014, Harvick has 11 consecutive top-10 finishes at the track "Too Tough To Tame" – only one of those was worse than sixth – having led 749 of his 812 laps there under the SHR banner. Expect that streak to continue, as the 2014 champion enters the race with momentum, coming off consecutive top 10s for the first time this season.

MUST START:
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Pretty soon, everyone is going to have to consider Chastain among the championship favorites this season, being one of two drivers to have multiple wins through 11 races, while leading the series with seven top-five finishes. Last fall, he finished third at Darlington while driving for Chip Ganassi Racing.

SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Having put a string of good finishes together recently, Jones finds himself on the playoff cutline entering his best track on the schedule in Darlington. He’s a former Southern 500 winner (2019), and in his first six starts at the track he had an average finish of 5.17 while racing for JGR.

SLEEPER PICK:
Kurt Busch | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 33-1
Dating back to COTA six races ago, Busch has four finishes of 31st or worse; not ideal when driving in his first season with 23XI. However, he has six top-10 results in the last eight Darlington races. Prior to that, he had six in his first 20 starts at the historic track.

SLEEPER PICK:
Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Since coming up one corner shy of getting his first Cup win at the Bristol Dirt Race three weeks ago, Reddick has had a tough go at it, with consecutive finishes of 30th or worse. But if one thing is certain this weekend, you’ll be able to find the No. 8 rim-riding the wall, which is typically the quickest way around Darlington.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Despite having solid speed for the majority of the season so far, Blaney’s team has been plagued with not putting full races together. Such is his track record at Darlington, with just one top-10 finish in 10 starts. Overall, Ford has been a tick off the competition, piling up just eight top-five finishes as a manufacturer since Daytona. Granted, three of those have come from Blaney.

STAY AWAY FROM:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Including Byron, the last two drivers listed are sitting pretty in points, second and third, respectively. However, Byron, too, doesn’t have a boatload of success at Darlington, with just two top 10s in seven starts. Both of those were top fives, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the No. 24 car run toward the front on Sunday. Instinctually, save him for later in the regular season.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
With Chastain’s continued success, admittedly, there’s a lot of pressure on Suárez’s shoulders to perform. Some weeks, the No. 99 car will be exceedingly fast, while other weeks it has been a touch off. Darlington, though, has been Suárez’s kryptonite in his Cup career, having just two finishes better than 23rd in eight starts.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Ross Chastain, Erik Jones
Garage: Kurt Busch