Analysis: Meet the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs field

16. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points, 1 win

No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2017, 2018; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015, 2019, 2021.

Favorable track: Darlington ... with five top 10s and an 11.9 average finish in 12 starts.

Strengths: For all of the (rightfully warranted) attention paid to his teammate Tyler Reddick, a two-time winner in 2022, they finished the 26-race regular season with the exact same average finish (16.7). In some ways, Dillon's mark is even more impressive, given his average starting position (19.8) is more than twice as bad as Reddick's (9.9), so he's had to work to make up that ground. The last winner to clinch his way in, many will have Dillon as a Round of 16 cut but he could get off to a hot start. The 2020 Southern 500 runner-up could consider Darlington his best track, with an 11.9 average finish. He's also one of the more recent Texas winners and could be more of a threat in the playoffs than people realize.

Weaknesses: That said, Dillon wasn't on the radar of many as a playoff driver until the rain hit at Daytona in the regular-season finale and he raced his way into the playoffs after the race resumed. So, given it took him so long to clinch, he certainly won't be considered one of the favorites. He also has yet to land in the top 10 at the Roval (24.0 average finish) and, should he make his way into the Championship 4, he'll be a heavy underdog. Dillon has just two top 10s in 17 Phoenix starts.

Strengths: Bowman picked up a win early on in the season at Vegas — one of this year’s playoff tracks — which obviously bodes well for his postseason outlook. He added top 10s at playoff tracks Talladega and Kansas as well, but he’ll need to rekindle the kind of early-season consistency he clinched his playoff ticket with. We’ve seen the No. 48 car go through up-and-down periods before and it was still able to hang seven championships on the board in the last decade and a half, so you never know. Also worth noting: he’s the defending Martinsville winner.

Weaknesses: Bowman has been starting to trend in a not-so-favorable direction, on pace to see his average finish diminish for a fourth straight season and a career-low in laps led (just 29 in the regular season). It’s been mostly a story of failing to find the front of the field so far, with Bowman turning in just three top fives (fewest among playoff drivers) and just 17 lead-lap finishes. Texas, Talladega, Phoenix, Bristol and Homestead all stand as tracks he averages a finish of 20th or worse at.

14. Austin Cindric, 2,006 points, 1 win

No. 2 Team Penske Ford

Elimination history: No prior playoff history.

Favorable track: Charlotte Roval ... no starts there, but 13.4 average finish and five top 10s in seven career road-course starts.

Strengths: Cindric locked up his postseason spot — and probably Sunoco Rookie of the Year honors — earlier than anybody else in the field with a season-opening win in the Daytona 500. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster since then as the first-year full-timer gets his Cup Series sea legs, but perhaps some of the ups and downs can be attributed to the fact that the No. 2 team then had the next 25 races to tinker and get ready for the playoffs. We’ve yet to see a rookie take it to the Championship 4, thus Cindric might not have a full championship run in him, but one of the sport’s best road racers could definitely punch a ticket to the Round of 8 if he’s able to win at the Roval. He just needs to get to the Round of 12 first.

Weaknesses: The NASCAR regular season heavily favors winners, and the postseason even more so. Cindric was obviously the season’s first winner and is racing for a championship-capable organization, but only led in three more races in between trips to Daytona for a total of just 78 laps on the season. He’s as unflappable a rookie as we’ve ever seen and just nearly missed out on a second-straight Xfinity Series title in 2021, but as the most inexperienced driver in the playoffs it’s hard to not look at that as a weakness. Cindric has a tremendously bright future, however, and nobody saw his Daytona 500 win coming so he could surprise some.

13. Daniel Suárez, 2,007 points, 1 win

No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Elimination history: No prior playoff history.

Favorable track: Texas ... with two top fives and an average finish of 17.3 in nine starts. Finished 10th there last year.

Strengths: Suárez has been riding the rollercoaster all season in the results column, but the No. 99 Chevrolet has been one of the fastest cars on the track on a near-weekly basis it seems. He notched his first Cup win at Sonoma earlier this year and Trackhouse has been exceptional on road courses this season, so look for him to possibly strike at the Roval, but one of Suárez’s better streaks came in the Road America-Atlanta-Loudon-Pocono stretch. All of those are extremely different tracks, and that type of versatility to compete anywhere is the backbone of a solid playoff run.

Weaknesses: What Suárez can’t afford is to go missing from the top 15 at the checkered flag on a consistent basis like he has for a majority of 2022. This is arguably the veteran’s best season to date, but he still finished outside the top 15 in half of the regular-season races — which doesn’t scream championship material. He’s a prior Xfinity Series title winner and Trackhouse clearly came to play in 2022, so he could be a legitimate threat in the playoffs if they can build some consistency.

12. Chase Briscoe, 2,009 points, 1 win

No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

Elimination history: No prior playoff history.

Favorable track: Phoenix ... 19.3 average finish across three starts, but won there earlier this year.

Strengths: Just looking ahead to Phoenix, every driver would love to be in the position of racing for a championship at a race track where they’re the most recent winner — and Briscoe was the spring winner in the desert. He added a top 10 at Martinsville earlier in the season as well, so he could finish the season strong the final two weeks. Beyond that, it’s tough to gauge where Briscoe could make up ground in the playoffs, though he does have top 15s at Bristol and Texas in his young career.

Weaknesses: Since his Phoenix win — in the fourth race of the season — Briscoe has just two total top 10s for four on the season (fewest among playoff drivers). His three top fives are fewest as well, and with an average finish that’s closer to 20th than he’d like, Briscoe will need a major momentum boost in the early going to make anything resembling a title run. He won nine races in the Xfinity Series just two seasons ago so he’s certainly capable of going on a tear, but maybe not until next year.

11. Kyle Busch, 2,010 points, 1 win

No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Elimination history: Won championships in 2015 and 2019; Reached Championship 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2021; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2014, 2020.

Favorable track: Bristol ... with eight wins and an average finish of 13.0 in 32 starts. Also won dirt race there in the spring.

Strengths: Busch has a distinct advantage over every other driver in the field — he’s the only one that’s Kyle Busch. The lone multi-time champion in the Cup Series at the moment, Rowdy is always a threat to win a race, championship, you name it, until he isn’t. So even if things took a rocky turn for him in late summer — seeing a career-worst streak of eight finishes outside the top 10 — do you really not think he’s still a legitimate threat to make a run to three Cup titles? Despite his less than ideal stretch run to finish the regular season, Busch has been one of the best at finishing races on the lead lap this year with 22 through 26 races. He also has previous wins at every playoff track except for the Roval (which has only been run four times) so he’ll be capable in any do-or-die scenarios that should arise.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to even call it a weakness since it’s a completely intangible thing, but … luck. In no way has that been on Busch’s side in 2022 (well, except at the Bristol Dirt Race when the seas parted for him to win after a battle between Reddick and Briscoe) and that’ll need to turn around for him to make a title run. He obviously would not be able to weather a similar stretch that he saw in the late summer, but many of those finishes were the result of odd happenstance that can’t be counted on to show up again in the playoffs. Road courses have also been a significant pain point for all Toyotas in 2022, and the Roval being a cutoff race is enough cause for concern to mention.

10. Christopher Bell, 2,011 points, 1 win

No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2021.

Favorable track: Texas ... with two top fives and a 9.0 average finish in three starts.

Strengths: Bell opened the season with a 25.8 average finish over the first five races but has quietly been one of the most consistently above-average drivers since, whittling that down to a fully respectable 14.5 figure over the course of the entire regular season. Bell and his No. 20 Toyota are not lacking in speed at all, with his 10.5 average start ranking fifth in the series for easily a career-best mark. He’s also already nearly tripled his laps led count for a season with still 10 races to go. In just his third Cup year, it might be easy to overlook Bell entering the playoffs, but he could be a dark horse title contender — and his only win of 2022 so far came at New Hampshire, which is similar in nature to Phoenix.

Weaknesses: Lack of experience. Bell’s capable of making it all the way to Phoenix, but he’ll have to turn in an exceptional 10 races and likely pick up a win or two — on 10 tracks at which he’s never won. That’s not to say he can’t win on any of them, it just doesn’t appear, on paper, that it’s the likeliest of scenarios. There’s also only three tracks (Texas, Homestead, Kansas) in the playoffs that, so far in his young career, he averages a finish inside the top 15. He’ll hit 100 career Cup starts during the playoffs and that number is always kind of the benchmark for when a driver feels fully comfortable at stock car racing’s highest level. Perhaps it could all click at the right time over the coming weeks for the 27-year-old.

9. Kevin Harvick, 2,012 points, 2 wins

No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

Elimination history: Won championship in 2014; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2021.

Favorable track: Phoenix ... with nine wins and an average finish of 8.7 in 39 starts.

Strengths: For a bit there in mid-summer, it looked like Harvick was not even going to make the playoffs — let alone look as strong as he does right now entering them. An August surge has the No. 4 primed as potential Championship 4 material, which would mark the first time Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers race for a title since three straight from 2017-2019. His numbers (seven top fives, 13 top 10s, 13.3 average finish) are about half as good as his legendary 2020 campaign that saw five wins and a ridiculous 7.3 average finish, but he missed out on the Championship 4 that year. He could have the right amount of momentum at the right time this year to make up for that, and racing for a title at Phoenix is obviously a dream scenario for the Cactus King.

Weaknesses: There’s some concern, of course, that the bottom could just fall out completely from the current run Harvick is on. For much of the year SHR has been off a tick as an organization, Harvick somewhat included, so it’s by far no guarantee he keeps things rolling in the playoffs. He’ll probably need to start qualifying better to make a run, as well. His 18.4 average start in 2022 is almost twice as bad as last year’s strong 9.7 and well off 2021’s 7.7. Fighting his way to the front every race isn’t exactly a championship-winning recipe. He should also hope to not be in must-win position at Martinsville, where he hasn’t led a lap since 2016 and has just one trip to Victory Lane (2011) in 42 starts.

8. Tyler Reddick, 2,012 points, 2 wins

No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2021. Did not make playoffs in 2020.

Favorable track: Homestead ... with two top fives and an average finish of 3.0 in two starts there.

Strengths: Reddick has had an interesting season — on all fronts — to say the least, and if it weren’t for his two wins he likely would not have made the postseason at all. The No. 8 driver’s results have been volatile from the get-go … and yet he’s also been one of the season’s best drivers? Reddick has ruled road courses in 2022 and very nearly added a third win on the dirt at Bristol, leading double-digit laps in another six races that he did not win. There’s a reason future team owner Denny Hamlin scooped him up — Reddick’s talent level is off the charts and if he’s able to find the consistency in the playoffs that he’s lacked all year, it’s completely fathomable that the two-time Xfinity Series champ is striving to add a Cup title to his resume in November. He starts extremely well (9.9 average), he just needs to find ways to stay at the front of the field.

Weaknesses: Look no further than the No. 8 car’s penchant for finishing races a lot worse than it started, with one of the worst average finishes among the playoff field (16.7). It’s resulted in finishing on the lead lap just 15 times through 26 races, with a whopping six finishes that resulted in single-point days. One of those alone can sink a driver’s playoff chances, and based on what we’ve seen so far it feels inevitable Reddick turns in at least one during this 10-race stint. In addition, Talladega is obviously unpredictable but he can’t feel too great about being the 39th-place finisher in each of the past two races there.

7. Ryan Blaney, 2,013 points, 0 wins

No. 12 Team Penske Ford

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2019, 2021; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2020; Did not make playoffs in 2016.

Favorable track: Charlotte Roval ... with a win and an average finish of 5.8 in four starts.

Strengths: Blaney and his No. 12 Ford Mustang have been nothing if not fast all season, compiling the fourth-best average start (10.4) and finish (13.7) among all drivers in 2022. While that hasn't resulted in any wins yet, it has put the No. 12 at the front of the field for a total of 417 laps led, sixth-most among playoff drivers. He has three wins split between two vastly different — yet both Round of 12 — tracks in the Charlotte Roval and Talladega and nearly averages a top 10 at Martinsville (10.2) and Vegas (11.1), so despite being the only winless playoff driver, his postseason run could have legs.

Weaknesses: Well, nobody ever wants to be the only driver in the playoffs to get there on points, but that's where Blaney finds himself. For whatever reasons the No. 12 hasn't landed in Victory Lane yet despite the aforementioned speed, so that's some cause for concern in a format that handsomely rewards winners. He may not get off to a great start, either, with Darlington and Bristol among his worst overall tracks — he has just six total top 10s in 23 combined starts there.

6. Denny Hamlin, 2,013 points, 2 wins

No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2019, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2017; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2015; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2018.

Favorable track: Darlington ... with four wins, 11 top fives and an average finish of 7.8 in 20 starts there.

Strengths: Hamlin’s season has been quite the site to behold, as he’s certainly in the conversation to be a favorite to make it to the Championship 4 — yet had only one top 10 through the season’s first 12 races … a win, at Richmond. He’s looked elite several times in the span since, adding two more checkered flags — though one was rescinded after his car failed post-race inspection — but Hamlin does something every race to make things interesting. The No. 11 has earned three poles this year as well, and he could wind up with a career-high there before the year is over. Hamlin just has to do what he does best, capitalizing on the tracks that he excels at — and Darlington, Homestead, Phoenix and Martinsville all rank among his best, with average finishes there ranging from 7.8 to 10.7, respectively, with 14 of his 48 career wins spread between those four tracks alone, two of which are the final two races of the year.

Weaknesses: Inconsistency has been the name of the game for Hamlin and his co-workers on pit road this year, and in-race penalties have plagued the No. 11 team in nearly every race. That said, if we’re talking about it, JGR is certainly aware of it and working on finding solutions. Hamlin is arguably Toyota’s best shot at a title this year, and he’ll have every resource available to ensure that things get straightened out in that area to give him the best chance possible to succeed. There’s no question he’ll need to be better overall in the playoffs than he’s been in the regular season (19.0 average finish) but there’s reason to believe things will take a turn for the better and a Championship 4 run is in the cards.

5. William Byron, 2,014 points, 2 wins

No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2019, 2021; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2020; Did not make playoffs in 2018.

Favorable track: Phoenix ... with four top 10s and an average finish of 13.8 in nine starts there.

Strengths: While the finishes have been all over the map at times, Byron’s No. 24 showed some serious speed at the beginning of the year, with his 612 laps led on the season standing as second most despite all but 43 of them coming before the Coca-Cola 600. He also tallied two wins through the first eight races, becoming the first repeat winner of 2022. If he makes it to Phoenix, it stands as his best track among true ovals with an average finish of 13.8. Despite his summer swoon, there were times this season Byron looked like a championship contender and it’s not too late to rekindle that early-season magic. He’s the most recent winner at Homestead, which could make things interesting should he repeat and he’s still in when he does.

Weaknesses: Byron’s season took a tremendous turn after his Martinsville win, amassing just one top 10 in the 18 races that followed his second win for just five total in the regular season. The season started looking like it would be a career year for Byron — and by all means, it still could be — but he’s on pace for his worst average finish since his rookie year in 2018. The playoffs start at his worst track of the 10, too, so it could be tough to re-spark his momentum to kick things off.

4. Kyle Larson, 2,019 points, 2 wins

No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Elimination history: Won championship in 2021; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2016; Was not playoff eligible in 2020.

Favorable track: Darlington, with five top fives and an average finish of 8.9 across nine starts.

Strengths: The reigning Cup champ hasn’t been “bad” by any means, but the No. 5 team surely hasn’t looked as strong as it did a season ago for much of 2022. That said, we’ve seen periods of strength from Larson and Co., such as a six-race stretch from Bristol to Charlotte in which he led double-digit laps every race and was essentially a top-five car weekly for a month and a half straight. We’ve yet to see him truly look dominant in 2022 — meaning it’s likely his best days of the season are still ahead of him. He’s the defending winner of five of the playoffs’ 10 races and it’s entirely possible he significantly pads his stats over the coming weeks en route to a second straight title. He’s also been exceptional in qualifying this year, leading the series with an 8.1 average start.

Weaknesses: Arguably the most versatile driver in the series, Larson’s repertoire doesn’t feature many weaknesses. Still, he’ll need to find ways to finish races, both in general and more specifically on the lead lap, both of which are far off of last year’s pace of 34/36 finishes and 31 of those on the lead lap. Circumstances happen, but circumstances are more costly in the playoffs. With the Round of 12 closing with Talladega and the Roval — two tracks known to bite playoff drivers in a big way — it’s no sure thing that Larson repeats, let alone make the Round of 8. If he does, though, that round sets up extremely well for him and you could theoretically pencil him in for the Championship 4 at that point.

3. Ross Chastain, 2,020 points, 2 wins

No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Elimination history: No prior playoff history.

Favorable track: Charlotte Roval ... 4.0 average finish and a win in the first three road courses of 2022.

Strengths: Chastain has kicked around NASCAR national series competition for a while — he had already topped 100 Cup starts prior to this season — but he stormed onto the scene in his first year with Trackhouse Racing. Chastain and the No. 1 are a driver/car combo that appear to have the legs to make a stretch run to the Championship 4, with a strong 583 laps led scattered across a season that has seen his first two Cup wins, double-digit top-five finishes and strength at just about every track type the series races on. His two victories — Circuit of The Americas and Talladega — are evidence of that.

Weaknesses: If Chastain has a weakness, it’s his inability to play nice with the rest of the field. Reigning Cup champ Kyle Larson said in August that Chastain’s got a list of on-track enemies “two pages long,” which certainly doesn’t bode well for the notion of any of his competitors cutting him some slack over the 10-race playoffs. Chastain has shown an ultra-level of aggression working his way through the field this year — which has certainly helped him get to where he is now — but could prove costly if any of those he’s collected along the way decide to cash in on payback at an inopportune time.

2. Joey Logano, 2,025 points, 2 wins

No. 22 Team Penske Ford

Elimination history: Won championship in 2018; Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2016, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2019, 2021; Did not make playoffs in 2017.


Favorable track: Las Vegas ... with two wins and an average finish of 8.9 in 18 starts.

Strengths: Another star driver that seems to really bring it when the spotlight is on and the stakes are the highest, Logano is known to be part of notable playoff moments. He’s had stretches of dominance (two wins, four top threes in eight races from Martinsville to Gateway) and some head-scratching stints (no finishes better than 20th from Road America to Pocono) but he’s much more the former driver than the latter. He’s good just about everywhere in the playoffs, too, with a win at every track except for the Roval — where he’s never finished outside the top 10.

Weaknesses: Likely to be chalked up as a result of Next Gen parity, Logano is averaging a finish of 14.0 so far in 2022, by far his worst figure since turning in a 15.2 average in 2017 – when he missed the playoffs entirely. Also, while he does have a combined five wins between them, Bristol and Kansas could be considered weak spots on the schedule for him with average finishes of 15.0 and 17.1 there, respectively, to rank in the back half of tracks for him. Many of those poor finishes came in his early career at JGR, however, so it’s tough to really hold that against the 2018 champ. If you’re looking for holes here, there aren’t many, though he’s been known to ruffle feathers in the past and there’s a chance it could bite him over 10 races.

1. Chase Elliott, 2,040 points, 4 wins

No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Elimination history: Won championship in 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016.

Favorable track: Charlotte Roval ... with two wins and an average finish of 2.7 in three starts.

Strengths: Elliott didn’t look like the championship favorite in the early portion of 2022 but as the team fit the pieces together in the first few months of the Next Gen era, something clicked in late spring and Elliott clicked off a remarkable stretch at the beginning of summer that saw three wins and two runner-ups over a five-race span from Nashville to Pocono. Even despite a “slow” start, this year’s Regular Season Champion has held the points lead since Atlanta — the first one — and as one of the sport’s best “big moment” drivers, it’s entirely possible he turns it up a notch further in the playoffs and never relinquishes it. Elliott has been not quite as dominant as his defending champion teammate’s 2021 year, but he’s clearly the man to beat as we enter this 10-race swing. The reigning Most Popular Driver and 2020 champ leads the field in wins (four), top 10s (17), laps led (719) and lead-lap finishes (23).

Weaknesses: It’s hard to pinpoint any weaknesses for Elliott, enjoying arguably his best season to date (career-best 10.0 average finish). Perhaps his biggest concern is to hopefully avoid a period of inconsistency that we’ve seen champions of the sport go on at times this year as teams work to fully grasp the intricacies of the Next Gen car. The No. 9 team seems to be one of the few to figure it out first, so it’s theoretically possible that other teams will catch up in the playoffs, especially at the handful of tracks that will be making their second appearance on the schedule. He’s also just mediocre at Las Vegas (17.8 average finish) and Darlington (17.4) and those could be trouble spots for him.