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Bubble Watch: Where drivers closest to cutline stand before Daytona
By Staff Report | Published: August 25, 2022 16
Logan Riely | Getty Images
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Two playoff spots remain up for grabs heading into the regular-season finale this weekend. Meet the 15 drivers battling for the last two spots before Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona International Speedway (10 a.m. ET on CNBC, Peacock, NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), with stats and ratings provided by Racing Insights.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney
Points above cutline: 212 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: Blaney was 24th at Watkins Glen and owns just six top 10s in the last 11 races.
Daytona outlook -- Hot: With Kurt Busch out, Blaney is in a more comfortable position to secure his playoff spot. He will still have to hold a 25-point advantage over Martin Truex Jr., but Blaney will clinch the 16th spot should Truex win. The defending winner of the Daytona summer race, Blaney has proven he can get the job done at Daytona with four finishes of sixth or better in the last five Daytona races.
Points above cutline: 212 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: Blaney was 24th at Watkins Glen and owns just six top 10s in the last 11 races.
Daytona outlook -- Hot: With Kurt Busch out, Blaney is in a more comfortable position to secure his playoff spot. He will still have to hold a 25-point advantage over Martin Truex Jr., but Blaney will clinch the 16th spot should Truex win. The defending winner of the Daytona summer race, Blaney has proven he can get the job done at Daytona with four finishes of sixth or better in the last five Daytona races.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr.
Points above cutline: 187 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: Truex was a non-factor at Watkins Glen last weekend and now has to perform well at a track he's yet to win yet.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Truex is winless in 69 superspeedway starts and has finished 13th or worse in six of the last seven Daytona races. The silver lining is that he won both stages in this year's Daytona 500 and opens a scenario to reach the playoffs on points if he can repeat the feat.
Points above cutline: 187 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: Truex was a non-factor at Watkins Glen last weekend and now has to perform well at a track he's yet to win yet.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Truex is winless in 69 superspeedway starts and has finished 13th or worse in six of the last seven Daytona races. The silver lining is that he won both stages in this year's Daytona 500 and opens a scenario to reach the playoffs on points if he can repeat the feat.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Erik Jones
Points below cutline: 187 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: Jones picked up a top 10 at Watkins Glen last Sunday, which marked his fourth top-10 result in the last 10 races.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Jones won the 2018 edition of the summer race but has six straight finishes outside the top 10 at Daytona, including three DNFs.
Points below cutline: 187 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: Jones picked up a top 10 at Watkins Glen last Sunday, which marked his fourth top-10 result in the last 10 races.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Jones won the 2018 edition of the summer race but has six straight finishes outside the top 10 at Daytona, including three DNFs.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Aric Almirola
Points below cutline: 194 | Full standings
Trending -- Mostly Cold: Almirola finished 29th at Watkins Glen, which was his fifth finish of 13th or worse in the last six races.
Daytona outlook -- Mostly Cold: Outside of a win in the 2014 summer race and being half a lap away from winning the 2018 Daytona 500, Almirola hasn't been great at the 2.5-mile superspeedway. He's got four finishes of 14th or worse in the last five Daytona races.
Points below cutline: 194 | Full standings
Trending -- Mostly Cold: Almirola finished 29th at Watkins Glen, which was his fifth finish of 13th or worse in the last six races.
Daytona outlook -- Mostly Cold: Outside of a win in the 2014 summer race and being half a lap away from winning the 2018 Daytona 500, Almirola hasn't been great at the 2.5-mile superspeedway. He's got four finishes of 14th or worse in the last five Daytona races.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Austin Dillon
Points below cutline: 230 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Austin Dillon finished 17th at Watkins Glen, which was his fourth straight finish of 13th or worse. He also has just one top-10 finish in the last 13 races.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Despite a win in the 2018 Daytona 500, Dillon has six finishes of 12th or worse in his last seven starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Points below cutline: 230 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Austin Dillon finished 17th at Watkins Glen, which was his fourth straight finish of 13th or worse. He also has just one top-10 finish in the last 13 races.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Despite a win in the 2018 Daytona 500, Dillon has six finishes of 12th or worse in his last seven starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
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Patrick McDermott | Getty Images
Bubba Wallace
Points below cutline: 235 | Full standings
Trending -- Cooling Off: A broken suspension at Watkins Glen forced Wallace to settle for a 35th-place finish. He's now finished outside the top 10 in his last two races.
Daytona outlook -- Hot: Wallace has been the runner-up at Daytona three times, including the last two races on the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Points below cutline: 235 | Full standings
Trending -- Cooling Off: A broken suspension at Watkins Glen forced Wallace to settle for a 35th-place finish. He's now finished outside the top 10 in his last two races.
Daytona outlook -- Hot: Wallace has been the runner-up at Daytona three times, including the last two races on the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
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Tim Nwachukwu | Getty Images
Chris Buescher
Points below cutline: 242 | Full standings
Trending -- Hot: Buescher finished ninth at Watkins Glen, which marked his third top 10 in the last four races.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Buescher has had quality results at Daytona, including a third-place finish in the 2020 Daytona 500 but has three straight finishes of 16th or worse at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Points below cutline: 242 | Full standings
Trending -- Hot: Buescher finished ninth at Watkins Glen, which marked his third top 10 in the last four races.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Buescher has had quality results at Daytona, including a third-place finish in the 2020 Daytona 500 but has three straight finishes of 16th or worse at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Justin Haley
Points below cutline: 274 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Haley finished 18th at Watkins Glen, which added to six straight finishes of 17th or worse.
Daytona outlook -- Hit or Miss: Haley's only DNF'd once in the Cup Series at a superspeedway and won the 2019 Daytona summer race in a rain-shortened event. Haley finished sixth in the summer race last year.
Points below cutline: 274 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Haley finished 18th at Watkins Glen, which added to six straight finishes of 17th or worse.
Daytona outlook -- Hit or Miss: Haley's only DNF'd once in the Cup Series at a superspeedway and won the 2019 Daytona summer race in a rain-shortened event. Haley finished sixth in the summer race last year.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Michael McDowell
Points below cutline: 319 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: McDowell finished sixth at Watkins Glen and was in race-winning contention throughout the day. He also has 10 top 10s this season, twice as many as any other season in his Cup career.
Daytona outlook -- Hit or Miss: The surprise winner of the 2021 Daytona 500 will need to find the magic again to make the playoffs in the best season of his career. He finished seventh in the most-recent race at Daytona.
Points below cutline: 319 | Full standings
Trending -- Hit or Miss: McDowell finished sixth at Watkins Glen and was in race-winning contention throughout the day. He also has 10 top 10s this season, twice as many as any other season in his Cup career.
Daytona outlook -- Hit or Miss: The surprise winner of the 2021 Daytona 500 will need to find the magic again to make the playoffs in the best season of his career. He finished seventh in the most-recent race at Daytona.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Points below cutline: 322 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Stenhouse finished 15th at Watkins Glen, which was his 11th straight finish of 13th or worse.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Despite winning in July 2017 at Daytona, Stenhouse has nine straight finishes of 13th or worse at the 2.5-mile superspeedway, including three DNFs.
Points below cutline: 322 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Stenhouse finished 15th at Watkins Glen, which was his 11th straight finish of 13th or worse.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Despite winning in July 2017 at Daytona, Stenhouse has nine straight finishes of 13th or worse at the 2.5-mile superspeedway, including three DNFs.
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Cole Custer
Points below cutline: 323 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: An 11th-place finish for Custer at Watkins Glen can certainly aid a less-than-ideal season for the driver of the No. 41 Ford. It could be used as some momentum for a potential 'Hail Mary' at Daytona.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: No top 10s for Custer at Daytona and has finishes of 24th and 20th in his last two starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Points below cutline: 323 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: An 11th-place finish for Custer at Watkins Glen can certainly aid a less-than-ideal season for the driver of the No. 41 Ford. It could be used as some momentum for a potential 'Hail Mary' at Daytona.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: No top 10s for Custer at Daytona and has finishes of 24th and 20th in his last two starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
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Tim Nwachukwu | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski
Points below cutline: 343 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Brad Keselowski has missed the playoffs only twice in his Cup Series career with 2013 being the last time he missed out. He has eight finishes of 14th or worse in his last nine races.
Daytona outlook -- Hit or Miss: Keselowski has one career win at Daytona (July 2016) but has crashed in eight of his last 11 Daytona races.
Points below cutline: 343 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Brad Keselowski has missed the playoffs only twice in his Cup Series career with 2013 being the last time he missed out. He has eight finishes of 14th or worse in his last nine races.
Daytona outlook -- Hit or Miss: Keselowski has one career win at Daytona (July 2016) but has crashed in eight of his last 11 Daytona races.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Harrison Burton
Points below cutline: 359 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Watkins Glen was not the most pleasant of races for Burton as he spun on Lap 2 and wound up 28th. He has five finishes of 23rd or worse in his last six races.
Daytona outlook -- Limited Cup Experience: Despite running up front in February's Daytona 500, Burton ended his day with a 39th-place finish to begin his maiden Cup Series campaign.
Points below cutline: 359 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Watkins Glen was not the most pleasant of races for Burton as he spun on Lap 2 and wound up 28th. He has five finishes of 23rd or worse in his last six races.
Daytona outlook -- Limited Cup Experience: Despite running up front in February's Daytona 500, Burton ended his day with a 39th-place finish to begin his maiden Cup Series campaign.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Ty Dillon
Points below cutline: 377 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Ty Dillon enters Daytona with three straight finishes of 17th or better. He finished 16th last Sunday at Watkins Glen.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Ty Dillon has a career-best finish of fourth at Daytona (July 2019) but has finished outside the top 10 in the last three races at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Points below cutline: 377 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: Ty Dillon enters Daytona with three straight finishes of 17th or better. He finished 16th last Sunday at Watkins Glen.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: Ty Dillon has a career-best finish of fourth at Daytona (July 2019) but has finished outside the top 10 in the last three races at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Todd Gilliland
Points below cutline: 380 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: After a top five at the Indianapolis Road Course, Gilliland has three straight finishes of 27th or worse.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: The driver of the No. 38 Ford finished 33rd in the 2022 Daytona 500, his only career Cup start at the track.
Points below cutline: 380 | Full standings
Trending -- Cold: After a top five at the Indianapolis Road Course, Gilliland has three straight finishes of 27th or worse.
Daytona outlook -- Cold: The driver of the No. 38 Ford finished 33rd in the 2022 Daytona 500, his only career Cup start at the track.