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Fantasy Fastlane: Playoff bubble tightens heading to Talladega
By Dustin Albino | Published: September 30, 2022 16
Jacob Kupferman | Getty Images
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Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
MUST START:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
In recent years, Blaney is among the best at Talladega, with consecutive wins at the end of 2019 and spring of 2020. The No. 12 car has led 10 or more laps in five of the last six Talladega races, meaning he finds his way to the front. With a fourth-place finish at Texas, Blaney earned 43 points, now 15 points up on the elimination line. While not fully comfortable heading into Talladega, it's better than most playoff drivers.
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
In recent years, Blaney is among the best at Talladega, with consecutive wins at the end of 2019 and spring of 2020. The No. 12 car has led 10 or more laps in five of the last six Talladega races, meaning he finds his way to the front. With a fourth-place finish at Texas, Blaney earned 43 points, now 15 points up on the elimination line. While not fully comfortable heading into Talladega, it's better than most playoff drivers.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MUST START:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Had you told me before this year that Truex would have scored the most points through the first three superspeedway races in the Next Gen car -- excluding the two events at Atlanta -- I wouldn't have believed you. He hasn't won in 70 combined starts at Daytona or Talladega, but he has proven this year he can get to the finish, earning 133 points across three races.
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Had you told me before this year that Truex would have scored the most points through the first three superspeedway races in the Next Gen car -- excluding the two events at Atlanta -- I wouldn't have believed you. He hasn't won in 70 combined starts at Daytona or Talladega, but he has proven this year he can get to the finish, earning 133 points across three races.
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Patrick McDermott | Getty Images
MUST START:
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Over the course of Wallace's Cup career, he's stood out on superspeedways and has always been competitive. He's the defending winner of the fall Talladega race, and a win this year would bump the No. 45 Toyota into the Round of 8 in the owner's championship battle. This year, Wallace has tallied the second-most points on superspeedways (109). Wallace has also won a stage in the last three Talladega races.
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Over the course of Wallace's Cup career, he's stood out on superspeedways and has always been competitive. He's the defending winner of the fall Talladega race, and a win this year would bump the No. 45 Toyota into the Round of 8 in the owner's championship battle. This year, Wallace has tallied the second-most points on superspeedways (109). Wallace has also won a stage in the last three Talladega races.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MUST START:
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
There is no driver more aggressive on superspeedways than Logano. At times, it's paid off in his career, while also wrecking out of three of the last four Talladega races. Still, Logano has led double-digit laps in nine of the last 12 races at the 2.66-mile behemoth and typically is in contention for the stage wins on superspeedways, including one at Daytona in August.
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
There is no driver more aggressive on superspeedways than Logano. At times, it's paid off in his career, while also wrecking out of three of the last four Talladega races. Still, Logano has led double-digit laps in nine of the last 12 races at the 2.66-mile behemoth and typically is in contention for the stage wins on superspeedways, including one at Daytona in August.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Dillon might be one of the most underrated superspeedway racers in the field, despite having two wins at Daytona. The No. 3 car has top-two finishes in the last two superspeedway races this season at Daytona and Talladega, and RCR finished one-two at Daytona last month.
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Dillon might be one of the most underrated superspeedway racers in the field, despite having two wins at Daytona. The No. 3 car has top-two finishes in the last two superspeedway races this season at Daytona and Talladega, and RCR finished one-two at Daytona last month.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Given Keselowski has the most wins of active drivers at Talladega (six), labeling him as a sleeper is criminal. But with the way his 2022 season has gone, you can understand why. Keselowski led a race-high 69 laps in the Daytona 500, but was involved in a trio of incidents. If he can steer clear of the melee, there's no reason to think Keselowski won't be in contention for the win.
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Given Keselowski has the most wins of active drivers at Talladega (six), labeling him as a sleeper is criminal. But with the way his 2022 season has gone, you can understand why. Keselowski led a race-high 69 laps in the Daytona 500, but was involved in a trio of incidents. If he can steer clear of the melee, there's no reason to think Keselowski won't be in contention for the win.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Before 2022, the onus on McDowell was that he could only contend in the top five at superspeedways. That hasn't been the case this year. But he continues to be competitive on said tracks, as he's one of just five drivers to have multiple top-10 finishes in the three races this season.
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Before 2022, the onus on McDowell was that he could only contend in the top five at superspeedways. That hasn't been the case this year. But he continues to be competitive on said tracks, as he's one of just five drivers to have multiple top-10 finishes in the three races this season.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
As has been said multiple times in this piece, Larson, admittedly, lacks confidence on superspeedways. And at two of the last four superspeedways, he’s blown an engine. Given the No. 5 car will be a hot choice at some of the tracks coming up, don't use him at Talladega.
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
As has been said multiple times in this piece, Larson, admittedly, lacks confidence on superspeedways. And at two of the last four superspeedways, he’s blown an engine. Given the No. 5 car will be a hot choice at some of the tracks coming up, don't use him at Talladega.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 22-1
In three superspeedway races this season, Bell has an average finish of 30.6; not ideal for a driver that enters the weekend 29 points below the playoff elimination line. In five Cup starts at Talladega, the Oklahoma native has an average finish of 22.4.
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 22-1
In three superspeedway races this season, Bell has an average finish of 30.6; not ideal for a driver that enters the weekend 29 points below the playoff elimination line. In five Cup starts at Talladega, the Oklahoma native has an average finish of 22.4.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Throughout the playoffs, Suárez has shown consistent speed, which currently has the No. 99 team four points above the elimination line. Unfortunately for Suárez, he has one top-10 finish in 11 Talladega starts, and he is riding a streak of six-straight results of 23rd or worse.
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Throughout the playoffs, Suárez has shown consistent speed, which currently has the No. 99 team four points above the elimination line. Unfortunately for Suárez, he has one top-10 finish in 11 Talladega starts, and he is riding a streak of six-straight results of 23rd or worse.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Bubba Wallace, Austin Dillon
GARAGE: Brad Keselowski
GARAGE: Brad Keselowski
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Dylan Buell | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: Austin Dillon vs. Tyler Reddick
Conventional wisdom would tell you on speed alone in 2022 that Reddick is the layup pick. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast! It was Reddick who trailed Dillon at Daytona, and it's Dillon who is a multi-time superspeedway winner.
Conventional wisdom would tell you on speed alone in 2022 that Reddick is the layup pick. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast! It was Reddick who trailed Dillon at Daytona, and it's Dillon who is a multi-time superspeedway winner.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: William Byron vs. Denny Hamlin
As professional wrestler Chris Jericho says, "You just made the list." Hamlin was none-too-pleased with Byron following Texas, but don't expect payback this weekend. Both drivers have started the postseason hot with four top-10 finishes -- the longest stretch for each driver in 2022. This is a true tossup, as both are exceptional superspeedway drivers. Put these names in a hat and pick; I chose Byron.
As professional wrestler Chris Jericho says, "You just made the list." Hamlin was none-too-pleased with Byron following Texas, but don't expect payback this weekend. Both drivers have started the postseason hot with four top-10 finishes -- the longest stretch for each driver in 2022. This is a true tossup, as both are exceptional superspeedway drivers. Put these names in a hat and pick; I chose Byron.
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Jacob Kupferman | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: Bubba Wallace vs. Chris Buescher
Buescher has put himself in contention for the win at superspeedways, while Wallace has won at Talladega. It shouldn't surprise anyone if the No. 45 car leads the most laps and wins at Talladega. But that's easier said than done.
Buescher has put himself in contention for the win at superspeedways, while Wallace has won at Talladega. It shouldn't surprise anyone if the No. 45 car leads the most laps and wins at Talladega. But that's easier said than done.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: Christopher Bell vs. Noah Gragson
With the unfortunate news of Alex Bowman missing Talladega due to concussion-like symptoms, in steps Noah Gragson, the hottest driver in NASCAR with four consecutive Xfinity Series wins. Oh, and he's not too bad at superspeedways, either, winning one race apiece at Daytona and Talladega. Give the advantage to Bell, however, as the No. 20 team needs plenty of points.
With the unfortunate news of Alex Bowman missing Talladega due to concussion-like symptoms, in steps Noah Gragson, the hottest driver in NASCAR with four consecutive Xfinity Series wins. Oh, and he's not too bad at superspeedways, either, winning one race apiece at Daytona and Talladega. Give the advantage to Bell, however, as the No. 20 team needs plenty of points.