Fantasy Fastlane: NASCAR heads out west

With the "Great American Race" in the books, the West Coast swing is upon us as the Cup Series heads to Auto Club Speedway on Sunday (3:30 p.m., FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more. Learn more about Fan Rewards

MUST START:
Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Larson and Auto Club Speedway go together like peanut butter and jelly — well, I don’t really like jelly, but you get the point. Ever since he was a rookie, the California native has been stout at Auto Club Speedway with five top-two finishes in eight starts. He’s the favorite this weekend.

MUST START:
Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Sure, it was with a different team, but Reddick dominated the first half of the Auto Club race last year, getting a clean sweep of the first two stages. This will be his first true test with 23XI Racing on an old, worn-out track surface, where drivers can rim ride against the wall. Nobody is better than that – some will argue Larson is – than Reddick.

MUST START:
Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Many people within the NASCAR industry believe Bell is bound to have a breakout season. He survived Daytona with a third-place finish, much better than he anticipated. And he felt following the 500 that he would be very strong out west.

MUST START:
Kyle Busch
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
The two-time Cup champion has come out swinging in his first pair of races with RCR. He finished third in the Busch Light Clash, and he was in position to win the Daytona 500 late. Luck wasn’t on his side when a late caution flew. But he did take over the No. 8 car that Reddick dominated with at Auto Club last year.

SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones
Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
One thing to remember from last year in Fontana: Jones was incredibly quick. Then, it seemed like a surprise, but it happened to be a theme of his 2022 campaign. There’s no reason to think that he won’t show up with similar speed this weekend, and he’s proven to be solid at the 2-mile track with three top 10s in five starts.

SLEEPER PICK:
Chase Briscoe
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 33-1
With how Briscoe ended the 2022 season, expectations were higher for him entering the new season. He has just one start at Fontana and finished 16th. Decent, sure, but he’s proven in the past to post solid results on old track surfaces. He does have a top-five effort in the Xfinity Series at Auto Club in 2019.

SLEEPER PICK:
Aric Almirola
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Quietly, Almirola has three consecutive top-10 finishes at Auto Club, with a best effort of sixth in that timeframe. That finish came last year in the series’ first visit to Auto Club in the Next Gen car. While Daytona is a different beast from Auto Club, the No. 10 team had a good Speedweeks, despite wrecking out late in the 500.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
The spotlight has been on Stenhouse all week as he visited Walt Disney World and Chicago after winning last week’s Daytona 500. Unfortunately, it might be back to reality this weekend in Fontana as the No. 47 team had an average finish of 22.8 in 2022. However, Stenhouse did round out the top 10 in this race last year, one of five top 10s on the season.

STAY AWAY FROM:
William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 15-1
Like Bell, many people inside the industry walls believe Byron is destined for a breakout season. But Fontana has not been his cup of tea in four starts. Before last year, his average finish was 15th, with his first three races at the track all resulting in 15th-place efforts. That dipped to 19.8 when he wrecked out last year. We can reevaluate this one later in the week as he could unload off the hauler with a bunch of speed.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Ryan Blaney
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 9-1
The last two times the Cup Series has visited Fontana, Blaney has had lights-out speed and little to show for it, with finishes of 19th and 18th, respectively. I even picked him to win this race last year. The No. 12 team just needs to put a complete race together.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. vs. AJ Allmendinger
It’s a bit surprising to see Stenhouse have better odds (80-1) than Allmendinger (100-1) to win in Southern California. Dating back to the end of last year, the 42-year-old, fun-spirited Allmendinger is on a streak of good runs with seven top-10 finishes in his last nine Cup starts. Go with the No. 16 team this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Austin Dillon vs. Erik Jones
This is a fun matchup as both drivers placed on the podium at Auto Club in 2022. Dillon was in contention to win at The Clash and last week’s Daytona 500 before wrecking out in overtime. But Jones showed more raw speed throughout 2022, especially at tracks similar to Fontana. Jones is the choice.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Alex Bowman vs. Tyler Reddick
It shouldn’t surprise anybody if Bowman has a standout run this weekend and is in contention for the win. He led 110 of 200 laps in this race three years ago en route to his second career victory. Still, the advantage has to go to Reddick as he excels at tracks with very little grip. Fontana is right in his wheelhouse.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott
Who can forget this race last year when these two collided late? It was the first of two incidents between the Hendrick Motorsports teammates in 2022. Elliott is good at Fontana, but Larson is great. There’s a reason why he’s the favorite to win on Sunday.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain

GARAGE: Erik Jones