Fantasy Fastlane: Will experience prevail at Martinsville?

In its first two tries, the new aerodynamic short track rules package has put on entertaining events at both Phoenix Raceway and Richmond Raceway. Expect more of the same this weekend at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville, however, requires attention to detail and teams being able to technically finesse the car around the tight confines at NASCAR’s shortest track. Thus why many of the same drivers battle for the win each race at "The Paperclip"

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MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

It doesn't seem like long ago when either Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon were winning with ease at Martinsville. And though it's shocking the No. 11 team hasn't won at the Virginia track in its last 15 attempts (spring, 2015), Hamlin is consistently up front and has led more than 100 laps in three of the last four Martinsville races. Expect Hamlin to get his first top-five finish of 2023 on Sunday.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 6-1

Capitalize on using Byron while the No. 24 team remains hot. Through eight races in consecutive seasons, Byron has been the only driver to win multiple times. In 2022, that second win came at Martinsville, a place he's begun to ace in recent years with four straight top-10 efforts.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 11-1

Of all the tracks on the schedule that Blaney has at least five starts on, he's performed the best at Martinsville with an average finish of 9.7. He has eight top 10s in the last 11 starts at the track, with two additional 11th-place results. In the first two races with the Next Gen car at the track, the No. 12 Ford placed in the top five.

MUST START:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

Like his JGR teammate Hamlin, Truex is still searching for his first top-five finish of 2023. Martinsville would be the perfect track for that to happen as he has six top fives over the last 11 Martinsville races. Truex was in contention to win the last short-track race at Richmond before the No. 19 team ran out of fresh tires late in the race.

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 50-1

One of Wallace's favorite tracks on the schedule is Martinsville, and there's plenty of reason for it to be. He's a two-time winner in the Craftsman Truck Series on the half-mile short track and he earned his first top 10 at Martinsville in the Cup Series last fall. Coming off a 12th-place finish on the Bristol dirt, the No. 23 team could certainly go for another top 10 this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK:

Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Aside from winning the second Bluegreen Vacations Duel at Daytona in February, the No. 10 bunch has had a disastrous start to the 2023 season. Even when Almirola is running well, something always seems to happen. He's no foe at Martinsville, however, earning three top-10 results over his last five starts. His seven top 10s at Martinsville are tied for third with Kansas and Phoenix on his list of most top 10s at a single track, trailing just Talladega and Richmond (nine and eight, respectively)

SLEEPER PICK

Todd Gilliland | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 Ford

Odds: 400-1

Using Gilliland would be going out on a limb, but the second-year Cup driver is currently on the best run of his career. He's coming off an eighth-place result in the Bristol Dirt Race and has four consecutive top-15 finishes, which ties a Front Row Motorsports record. Gilliland placed 13th at Martinsville in the fall and earned his first Truck Series victory at the historic short track in 2019.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 8-1

This one is a bit tricky because Larson did finish runner-up to Christopher Bell at Martinsville in the fall, but historically it's been among his worst tracks on the schedule with a mere four top-10 finishes in 16 starts. Two of those, however, have come in his four races with Hendrick Motorsports, so he's on an upswing. Still, it's too risky to use the No. 5 team this weekend, especially when most of us -- including myself -- used him at Bristol dirt.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Dating back to 2020, Harvick has just one top 10 in the last six Martinsville races. It's hard to forget the No. 4 team's collapse in the penultimate race of the 2020 season, which eliminated the nine-time winner from championship contention. We're going to need to use Harvick frequently in upcoming races, so don't use him for a Martinsville race.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 35-1

Reddick has competed in just six Cup races at Martinsville, and only one of those ended with him placing inside the top 15. Reddick is currently hot and trails only Bell for the most top fives through eight races. That means the No. 45 team is going to have a frequent spot in fantasy lineups this season. Don't squander one of those starts this weekend

FEATURED MATCHUP
Christopher Bell vs. Ryan Blaney

Bell is on a heater to start the 2023 season, with a handful of top-five finishes and holding the regular championship lead after eight races. Before the year began, he was my championship pick. But Blaney is the right choice this weekend, despite Bell winning in the fall. The No. 12 team is constantly running up front at Martinsville and is due for a victory.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

William Byron vs. Martin Truex Jr.

A couple of years ago, Truex would have been the easy decision, even though Byron has always run toward the front at "The Paperclip" Four times, Truex has led more than 100 laps at Martinsville, including his 2019 stomping, when he led 464 of 500 laps. Who finished second that day? Byron. And he led 212 of 403 laps last spring. Go with the No. 24 car this weekend as he's shown more sheer speed this season.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Austin Dillon vs. Ryan Preece

The most similar track to Martinsville on the Cup schedule is the LA Coliseum's Busch Light Clash exhibition race. Both Dillon and Preece were mainstays at the front in that race two months ago and have had little to celebrate since. Preece is a great shoe on short tracks, but Dillon finished on the podium in this race last season. The No. 3 car is what my gut tells me.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Denny Hamlin

Hamlin predicted on his podcast earlier this week that the No. 11 team is going to get hot beginning this weekend. That's hard to argue, given his success at Martinsville. Busch is a multiple-time winner at the famed short track as well, picking up both victories since the last time the No. 11 team stood in Victory Lane at Martinsville. All that to say, the No. 11 team is likely going to be battling for the win on Sunday.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Bubba Wallace

GARAGE: Brad Keselowski