Fantasy Fastlane: Can Corey LaJoie finally get it done in Atlanta?

The three Cup Series races on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway have been wild and unpredictable. However, all of them have been won by drivers who are among the elite superspeedway drivers in the premier series. Look for some of those drivers to remain strong this weekend, but an opportunity presents itself for an underdog story. 

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MUST START: Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 13-1

Known for being aggressive, Logano is often in contention for the win on superspeedways. Sealing the deal in recent years has been an issue, but not in March at Atlanta. The No. 22 team had a near perfect weekend by winning the pole, winning the opening stage, leading 140 of 260 laps and scoring the victory. Thus far, it’s been Logano’s lone triumph of 2023, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets another checkered flag this weekend.

MUST START: Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 12-1

While all that sounds dandy for Logano, it was Keselowski who he passed on the final lap to win the race in March. The No. 6 car led 47 laps in that race, and the 2012 Cup champion is always a force on superspeedways. With how strong the No. 6 team began the season, it’s hard to believe Keselowski has just six top-10 finishes. Would think he picks up his seventh top 10 this weekend.

MUST START: Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-1

I’ve got seven uses left for Elliott in the regular season and you bet your tuchus I’m using one this weekend. The No. 9 car dominated the July race at Atlanta last year en route to the victory at his home track. And though Elliott has three superspeedway wins in his career, he seems to fly under the radar in these types of races. Due to his broken leg, he didn’t compete in the March race, but one would think the No. 9 car will be a factor this weekend. 

MUST START: Corey LaJoie | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 7 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

Once can be a fluke, twice a coincidence, but three is a trend. LaJoie has been in the hunt to win all three races on the Atlanta reconfiguration. Earlier this year, he earned his best career finish of fourth, and he made a move for the win on Elliott in last year’s July race before being blocked into the wall. Last week, LaJoie noted that Spire has every intention of racing for the win at Atlanta, so he’s in my lineup this weekend. Certainly, the No. 7 car is a great value pick.

SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

On the final lap of the March race at Atlanta, Jones made some hay and picked up nine positions to finish eighth. Jones is always a sleeper on superspeedways, as he’s been in contention to win multiple races in the pack – and his first career victory came at Daytona. He finished fourth at Atlanta last July and two of his three top 10s in 2023 have come at superspeedways. 

SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

One of the best surprises of 2023 continues to be the No. 47 team, which won the season-opening Daytona 500. Stenhouse is a fierce superspeedway competitor, with all three of his Cup triumphs coming on such tracks. And though his average finish at the last three Atlanta races is 26.3, Stenhouse has led laps in all three races.

SLEEPER PICK: Justin Haley | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 31 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Finishing runner-up to Shane van Gisbergen at the Chicago Street Course must give Haley some confidence entering a style of racing in which he excels at. All four of Haley’s Xfinity Series victories have come on superspeedways, and he knows how to control the draft. His 13.3 average finish in the last three Atlanta races isn’t bad, either.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

There’s not a doubt in my mind that Larson will one day win on a superspeedway. And when he does, the 2021 Cup champion should soak it in, because it’s a style of racing that he’s often been unsatisfactory at. But until proven otherwise, he will make my list of drivers to stay away from on said tracks. This year, though he’s run towards the front, he’s wrecked out at Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega.

STAY AWAY FROM: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 16-1

For a long time in Bell’s NASCAR career, he’s also lacked confidence on superspeedways. In recent years, he’s upped his performance and finished third at Atlanta earlier this season. He also finished third in the Daytona 500 and eighth at Talladega. But with races at New Hampshire and Richmond later this month, my thought is to save him for the shorter tracks, where he tends to be in control. 

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-1

In the series’ most recent superspeedway event, Busch was in the right place at the right time when Bubba Wallace and Ryan Blaney wrecked at the front of the field. It was Busch’s first win on a superspeedway in 15 years. Even though that improved his number to 10 top 10s over the last 36 superspeedway races – essentially a full season – it’s still a safe bet to not use the No. 8 car at Atlanta.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Joey Logano vs. William Byron

Here’s a battle of the heavyweights at Atlanta. Both drivers have led laps in two of the three races since Atlanta’s reconfiguration. Both drivers have won in those three starts. Given how dominant Logano was in March, it’s hard to think the No. 22 team won’t return with similar speed, though this time around the ambient temperature will be significantly warmer.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney

Both of these drivers are also among the sport’s best on superspeedways, but have their seasons going in opposite directions. Sure, that might not apply to the wild card that is Atlanta, but Elliott has chipped away 29 points to the playoff cutline over the last two races, while Blaney has three consecutive finishes outside the top 30. In that span, he went from the championship leader to ninth in points, losing 98 points to the top position. Elliott is my pick, though do expect this to be a rebound week for the No. 12 team.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Brad Keselowski vs. Alex Bowman

The closest Keselowski has come to winning as an owner-driver came at Atlanta, less than four months ago. Aside from Daytona 500 qualifying, where Bowman has a record six consecutive front-row starts, he’s never stood out on superspeedways. Keselowski, the series’ leader in superspeedway wins, is the obvious choice.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Bubba Wallace vs. Ty Gibbs

Aside from being in contention to win the first Atlanta race in 2022, it’s been a place the No. 23 team has struggled at. Last July, the team couldn’t get a grip on the car and it took just 11 laps for Wallace to spin in the March race. Gibbs, who won the first Xfinity Series race on the reconfiguration last year, placed ninth at AMS earlier this year. This is an extra important race for these two drivers, as it’s a wild-card event and these are the last drivers inside of the cutline. Based on understanding of the draft in the Cup cars, I’ll take Wallace.

MY LINEUP: Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Corey LaJoie

GARAGE:: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.