Advance to Victory Lane: Byron, Truex battle to land that elusive lobster

William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. seem to be set for a tug of war at the top of the NASCAR Cup Series standings down the stretch, and that battle could continue on Monday in the Crayon 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Noon ET, USA Network, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). However, in order for one of them to take control of the situation, some statistical hurdles will need to be cleared.

Despite leading the series with four victories this season, including his latest “W” last weekend at Atlanta, Byron has never led at New Hampshire and has never finished in the top 10 in five starts there. Meanwhile, Truex, who is in the middle of a comeback campaign himself, also has the dubious honor of being the driver to lead the most laps at Loudon (916) without ever securing a victory.

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While a breakthrough could be at hand for Byron and/or Truex, if they can’t turn the tables on the history books, then one of Truex’s teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing, Christopher Bell, could be the one to pull out a slight upset.

Bell has probably the craziest stat working in his favor this weekend — only one finish outside the top two in eight national series starts at New Hampshire. Bell won this race last year and won all three of his Xfinity Series starts at New Hampshire, too, which is amazing to think about.

Racing Insights originally picked Byron to roll to his fifth win of the season, but then changed to Truex after practice and qualifying on Saturday. Be sure to tune in to see who wins the tug of war on Monday at New Hampshire.

OTHERS TO WATCH

KEVIN HARVICK: The veteran Stewart-Haas Racing driver has won three of the last eight New Hampshire races, and his crew chief, Rodney Childers, leads all crew chiefs with four wins at Loudon.

DENNY HAMLIN: So much for being afraid of lobsters. The Joe Gibbs Racing ace has three wins and six runner-up finishes at New Hampshire.

ARIC ALMIROLA: He could be a sleeper pick, like in 2021 when the Stewart-Haas wheelman won at New Hampshire. Almirola has led laps in four of the last five New Hampshire races, and he’s coming off an Atlanta race where he consistently ran in the front of the pack.

RYAN NEWMAN: Hey, don’t forget that the “Rocket Man” is making his second start of the 2023 season this weekend. Newman has seven poles and three wins in his Cup Series career at New Hampshire. He’s driving for Rick Ware Racing this time.

Projections as of Monday, July 17.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE CRAYON 301

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.