Fantasy Fastlane: Predicting another Joe Gibbs Racing pouncing at Richmond

When looking at projections for this weekend at Richmond Raceway, it’s eerie how similar it is to last week at Pocono Raceway. Mainly, that’s because Richmond has been dominated by Toyota drivers, who have won nine of the last 15 races at the short track. Hendrick Motorsports stepped up in the spring, leading more than half of the race. You may notice a trend in my lineup.

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MUST START: Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

Not only is Hamlin coming off a win at Pocono, making him the winningest driver at that track, but the driver who grew up a half hour from Richmond has four wins at his home race track. He was in contention to win in the spring until a late pit-road penalty cost him valuable track position with little time to make it up. Prior to that late-race miscue, the No. 11 team had four straight top-five finishes at Richmond, with three of those being inside the top two. His average finish in 33 Richmond starts is an unbelievable 8.7.

MUST START: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

If any driver has been better than Hamlin in recent years at Richmond, it’s been Truex. Since snapping his short-track skid in 2019, the No. 19 Toyota has won three of the last eight Richmond races. In 10 of the last 13 races at the 0.75-mile track, he’s led north of 50 laps and seven times he’s eclipsed the 100-laps-led barrier. The No. 19 team is on a hot streak too, so this would be the ideal weekend to use Truex.

MUST START: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Bell is still looking for his first win at Richmond, and that could come as soon as this weekend based on his recent stats. In five of his six Richmond starts, Bell has finishes of sixth or better. His average finish is the best in the field at 5.7. With how dominant JGR has been at the track, Bell will be a popular choice this weekend.

MUST START: William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-1

While it was another Hendrick driver standing tall in Victory Lane at Richmond in April, Byron was the dominant car until he was tagged late in the race in an incident not of his own doing. That day, the No. 24 car led a race-high 117 laps. A pair of top 10s in 10 starts here doesn’t tell the full story for Byron. 

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 66-1

It was around this time last year that the ship turned in a positive direction for RFK Racing, a wave of momentum that carried into this year. Buescher had a legitimate shot at winning the summer race at Richmond in 2022, ultimately finishing third. Looking at his Richmond numbers, that could have been a fluke run, as it’s his lone top 10 in 14 starts. But RFK certainly has more speed in 2023 than it did in 2022.

SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 50-1

The last time the Cup Series visited one of Almirola’s best tracks, he was having his strongest run of the season in the No. 10 car at New Hampshire before hitting the wall when his team left the right-rear wheel loose. Richmond has been another track where Almirola has always stood out with four top 10s in 10 starts with SHR. He also pieced together a quartet of top 10s while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 200-1

Dillon threw his helmet at Tyler Reddick’s car in Pocono last week, but he could be throwing his name inside the top 10 this weekend. The No. 3 car has finished 11th or better in six of the last nine Richmond races, which includes a career-high 55 laps led in the second race in 2020. Of his 11 top 10s on short tracks, five have come at Richmond.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 20-1

It’s clear that Blaney has gotten more comfortable at Richmond over the last couple of seasons, but he still considers it to be among his worst tracks on the schedule. The stats back that up with three top 10s in 14 races, but a pair of those were 10th. He’s still searching for his first top five.

STAY AWAY FROM: Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 18-1

Reddick is in the same boat as Blaney when it comes to Richmond; he just doesn’t have as much experience. In five starts, the two-time Xfinity Series champion has a best finish of 11th, coming in his track debut. There are a couple of road courses coming up, so don’t spend a usage on Reddick this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 66-1

Wallace joked last weekend at Pocono that JGR typically runs first through fourth at Richmond while he’s mired down near 20th. Unfortunately for Wallace, who’s in a points battle as the playoffs near, the stats back up his dismal performance at the track. Eight of his 10 starts have ended outside of the top 20. His best finish is 12th for RPM. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Austin Dillon vs. Tyler Reddick

On the surface, it would be easy to choose Reddick over Dillon most weeks. But since a test session many years back, Richmond has become among Dillon’s best tracks on the schedule. Reddick might have good pace in practice and qualifying before sinking during the race. I might be in the minority this weekend, but I’m expecting a standard run from the No. 3 car at Richmond, which will outrun Reddick.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

One would think that come Richmond, Hamlin and Larson have put Pocono behind them, right? Either way, these two drivers are championship contenders and will compete for wins regularly throughout the end of the season. It’s likely they’ll butt heads again before long -- possibly this weekend. Larson won for the second time at the Richmond in the spring and it’s a track that is up Hamlin’s alley. Hamlin and JGR will have more maneuverability in their cars and will be towards the front at the end.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Corey LaJoie vs. Ryan Preece

Both drivers are standout short-track competitors, and there’s some bad blood that might spill over from the waning laps at Pocono. Preece has proven he can run up front at short tracks this season, even if the track shape was completely different. Looking at the points, LaJoie is ahead of Preece, but come the checkered flag on Sunday, one would assume Preece will be ahead of LaJoie.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Christopher Bell vs. Kevin Harvick

Bell and Harvick are in my lineup for good reason. Bell’s stats are undeniable, though he has a limited number of attempts. Meanwhile, in 18 Richmond races with SHR, Harvick has just the 2022 win, but 14 top-20 finishes, with 11 top fives. Six times, he’s finished fifth during that span, including the spring race from this season. Pick what your heart desires, but I’ll take the No. 4 bunch. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, William Byron, Kevin Harvick

GARAGE: Joey Logano