It is hard to remember the last time there was such a drastic dominance in one qualifying group compared to the other. Joey Logano posted the second slowest lap in Group B, yet ranked 23rd in the final rundown, better than 12 cars from Group A. When all was said and done, Tyler Reddick earned his first pole while driving for 23XI Racing at a track where he typically has had little success.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Denny Hamlin
Starter 2: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 3: Kevin Harvick
Starter 4: William Byron
Starter 5: Kyle Busch
Garage pick: Christopher Bell
NEXT IN LINE: Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace.
RELATED: Set your lineup | Odds for Sunday’s race
RISING: With how Busch’s first year with Richard Childress Racing has gone on short tracks, it can overshadow his tenacity on short tracks. He is a six-time Richmond winner and said following his qualifying run that he felt good about his car this weekend. That could be scary for the competition because the No. 8 team has thrown everything but the kitchen sink in — maybe that, too — to figure out its short-track program. Something seems to be working this weekend. Busch will start second.
Despite it being just Reddick’s fourth year of competition at the Cup level, it is hard to believe he has not even led a lap yet on a short track. His stats at Richmond are not pretty, having never cracked the top 10 in the finishing order. Alas, Reddick will lead the field to the green flag and could finally lead his first lap at Richmond. One cause for concern is the No. 45 Toyota seemed to fall off on the long run.
FALLING: Richmond has been a track where drivers can utilize all racing grooves up to the wall. Logano will need that as he will start the 400-lap race from 23rd starting position on Sunday. He is the only driver to fall out of my lineup from earlier this week. Having no track position at the start could be a small hindrance and cost the No. 22 team stage points.
The same thing could be said for Christopher Bell, who qualified even worse in 29th. However, Joe Gibbs Racing had the best pace of all teams, which is typical at Richmond. I’m confident that Adam Stevens will figure out the No. 20 car and Bell will make a hard charge in the race. He has an average finish of 5.7 in six starts.
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Austin Dillon vs. Tyler Reddick: Over the last handful of years, Richmond has become one of the best stops on the circuit for Dillon. Entering the weekend, the No. 3 team had the upper hand in qualifying and was quicker off the hauler during practice. Sunday has the potential to be a breakout run for Reddick on a short track, and I would consider using him for your lineup.
Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson: The No. 11 team’s speed in practice might look concerning, given Hamlin ranked 34th. But considering he did not hit the track until more than five minutes had passed in his group, that was not bad. And it was by design, knowing more heat in the track would suit better for race conditions. Larson will likely be good, as he won in April at Richmond, and the No. 5 team has had a good short-track program in 2023. Leaning on Hamlin’s consistency at Richmond this weekend, as he has an average finish of 8.7 across 33 starts.
Corey LaJoie vs. Ryan Preece: Richmond is not one of LaJoie’s best tracks on the schedule, with a best finish of 21st in 11 starts (twice). Preece has made his living at winning on short tracks and dominated the first third of the Martinsville race earlier this year. The 11th-place starting spot for Preece is his best since Martinsville, so I would advise taking the No. 41 car.
Christopher Bell vs. Kevin Harvick: Saturday had a Kevin Harvick feel to it. He’s familiar with Richmond’s Victory Lane, as the 0.75-mile short track is the track he’s won at most recently. Harvick had better long-run speed than Bell as well, so I’m leaning in his direction. As noted earlier, I do believe there is potential with the No. 20 car, should the team find the correct setup.