Kevin Harvick came into Michigan as a race favorite with a strong history of success in the Irish Hills, but a tough day of practice and qualifying on Saturday pushed him back in Racing Insights’ projections. After qualifying 22nd and coming in 25th in practice, Harvick dropped from being projected as the race winner to instead finishing fifth.
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Meanwhile, vaulting to the top of the list was Martin Truex Jr. in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. You might not think of Truex as being a good pick on a big track like the 2-miler at Michigan, but he owns the longest active top-10 streak there at six straight.
Plus, Truex finished first in practice and posted the fifth-best 10-lap average. Truex rolled off fifth when the green flag dropped for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400. The race was postponed due to rain after 74 of 200 laps, setting for a Monday resumption (noon ET, USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), and Truex might have some extra motivation after signing a one-year contract extension to return to JGR in 2024.
OTHERS TO WATCH
CHRISTOPHER BELL: Bell set a blazing pole-winning speed of 193.382 mph in qualifying as he tries to bounce back from some recent subpar performances.
DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin hasn’t won at Michigan since 2011, but he has two victories here and a top-10 streak of five straight races.
KYLE BUSCH: Busch has six career victories on tracks that are two miles in length, including one win at Michigan.
KYLE LARSON: Larson is a three-time winner at Michigan and has five victories on tracks that are two miles in length.
CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott has finished in the top 10 in 10 of 12 Michigan starts, including three runner-up finishes.
Projections as of Sunday, Aug. 6.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 24 | William Byron |
| 5 | 4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 7 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 9 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 10 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 12 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 13 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 16 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 17 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 18 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 19 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 20 | 10 | Aric Almirola |
| 21 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 23 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 24 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 25 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 26 | 31 | Justin Haley |
| 27 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 28 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 29 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 30 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 31 | 77 | Ty Dillon |
| 32 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 33 | 51 | Cole Custer |
| 34 | 42 | Josh Berry |
| 35 | 15 | J.J. Yeley |
| 36 | 62 | Austin Hill |
| 37 | 78 | Josh Bilicki |