Michigan International Speedway is known for horsepower and speed. That was on full display during Saturday’s qualifying session, as Christopher Bell ran the quickest pole-winning speed since the 2020 Daytona 500. It was the fastest pole speed at Michigan since 2018. On top of that, there are about 15 cars I could think of potentially putting in my fantasy lineup this weekend, which is probably the most of the season. Let’s try to boil it down.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: William Byron
Starter 2: Christopher Bell
Starter 3: Kyle Busch
Starter 4: Joey Logano
Starter 5: Ross Chastain
Garage pick: Ty Gibbs
NEXT IN LINE: Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin.
RELATED: Set your lineup | Odds for Sunday’s race
RISING: This weekend marks one year since Gibbs’ first top-10 finish. Consistently, he had a top-five car throughout practice and qualifying on Saturday, so this would be a good choice for using the No. 54 Toyota. All hands are on deck for Joe Gibbs Racing to try to get the rookie into the playoffs, sitting just 18 points below the cutline. The last time the Cup Series visited a high-speed track was Pocono, where Gibbs earned his best career Cup finish.
Over the last 10 races, Chastain has seven finishes of 22nd or worse. Since winning at Nashville Superspeedway in late June, the No. 1 team has cracked the top 20 just once in the final rundown. But the Trackhouse Racing team showed up to Michigan with plenty of speed, turning the third best lap in qualifying. Chastain also performed well at MIS last season by leading 29 laps. He just didn’t cap off the race; the same problem he’s had since early May.
FALLING: Harvick has been dominant at Michigan, having won five of the last seven races held at the 2-mile oval. The No. 4 car lacked speed on Saturday, as he ranked 25th in single-car speed during practice and was 18th of 21 cars that made a 10-lap run. Crew chief Rodney Childers is known for making wholesale changes that will improve the handling, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Harvick contending for another win at Michigan. He’s missed the cut on my lineup.
All six Toyotas were slotted in Group B of practice and qualifying. Denny Hamlin ranked the slowest of the Toyota brigade in practice and missed the final round of qualifying. The No. 11 team has five straight finishes of sixth or better at Michigan, so he should still be considered for your lineup.
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Chris Buescher vs. Daniel Suárez: Buescher is carrying the momentum of his second win for RFK Racing in the last calendar year into Michigan. Suárez has consecutive finishes outside the top 30, but showed improvement in speed on Saturday, as the No. 99 car will start 14th. It’s hard to bet against Buescher, however, as he continues to have the most consistent season of his Cup career.
Ryan Blaney vs. Kevin Harvick: Though Blaney’s numbers at Michigan aren’t superb like Harvick’s have been, he does have consecutive top-five finishes at the track. Harvick tends to make the most out of his days and one should expect improvement from practice and qualifying to the race. But not enough to beat Blaney, who needs to get back on track before the playoffs begin (four finishes of 30th or worse in the last seven races).
Harrison Burton vs. Erik Jones: Jones won earlier this week, marrying longtime partner Holly Shelton. The No. 43 Chevrolet ranked better than Burton in all metrics in practice and qualifying, though neither driver made a 10-lap run. Unless Jones has an issue during the event, would pick him to easily outrun Burton.
Kyle Busch vs. William Byron: From what we saw on track Saturday, this has the potential to be the best matchup of the weekend. Both cars were inside the top five on one-lap and five-lap averages, while the Nos. 24 and 8 ranked first and second on a 10-lap run. Byron had slightly more speed in all three categories and out-qualified Busch by one position. Think either driver could win the race, but going into Sunday, Byron is my choice to score his season-high fifth win of the season.