Fantasy Fastlane: Is Chris Buescher the favorite to win at Indianapolis?

For the third time, the Cup Series will compete on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. If we can take anything from the first two events, it's to expect the unexpected. Both races had their fair share of chaos, leading to a surprise winner in AJ Allmendinger in 2021 and a dominant performance by Tyler Reddick last season. One can only imagine what will be in store this weekend, with just three races left in the regular season.

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MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 20-1

Since 2010, RFK Racing hadn't won consecutive races, but now with back-to-back wins, Buescher enters Indianapolis with confidence. Add in the fact he has eight straight top-10 efforts on road courses -- tied for the sixth longest streak in NASCAR history -- and he should be among the pre-race favorites for the win. The No. 17 car is on the rise and is arguably the best Ford team in the field. 

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Even though Toyota has improved on road courses compared to 2022, Reddick's results have largely been disappointing. You might ask, "Is it really disappointing given that he won in dominant fashion at COTA?" Since then, he's posted finishes of 33rd after running outside the top 10 for much of the race at Sonoma and 28th at Chicago when he wrecked on his own. Reddick did control last year's race at Indy with ease, however, and is a sure bet for my lineup.

MUST START:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Similar to Reddick, Allmendinger's finishes on road courses this season have left a lot to be desired. He was running inside the top five late at COTA before getting involved in an incident, but was a non-factor at Chicago. That is a rarity, as Allmendinger is a special road-course racer. He needs points, too, which will help your lineup. The 2021 winner is looking to secure a playoff spot this time around.

MUST START:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Busch is the lone driver in the field with top-five finishes in all three road-course races this season. The No. 8 car finished runner-up at COTA and Sonoma, then he rebounded for a fifth-place finish at Chicago after driving into the tire barriers in the opening laps. Busch has scored 116 points on road courses this season, which is the most in NASCAR, and he is looking to rebuild his consistency after last-place finishes in two of the last four races this season.

SLEEPER PICK:

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 91 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

You would be hard pressed to find a better debut in the history of the Cup Series than what van Gisbergen had last month in Chicago. While Indianapolis isn't a street course, it has similar tendencies with the way it drives. Kyle Busch labeled SVG as the favorite to win; other drivers think it will be much tougher for him than Chicago was. Either way, there's going to be a lot of eyes on the No. 91 car.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 28-1

There's a case that McDowell should be in your starting lineup for the final three races of the regular season. But when it comes to Indy, McDowell is known for his road-course prowess. He finished eighth in last year's race and posted finishes of 12th or better in all three road courses this season. Of all drivers in the field, he's chalked up the second most points on road courses in 2023 with 114.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 28-1

Before winning on ovals in the Xfinity Series, Cindric was known as a top-tier road-course racer, as his first two wins came turning left and right. That hasn't panned out as well in the Cup Series, though he did finish runner-up last year at the Brickyard. Team Penske's road-course program has been amiss this season, which makes his sixth-place finishes at COTA and Chicago all that more impressive.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

If Indianapolis is consistent with the rest of the road courses this season, Hamlin will qualify well, but a mistake could take him out of the running. At Sonoma, he ran into the wall on the frontstretch, and at Chicago, he slipped in the rain. The No. 11 team won the pole for both races. Hamlin is a respectable road-course driver and nearly won the first installment at Indy before he was taken out by Chase Briscoe. Still, I'm not planning on using him this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 65-1

The last two weekends have been statement races for RFK Racing, with Buescher winning both and both cars finishing inside the top six. That likely will change this weekend, at least for the No. 6 team. Keselowski has an average finish of 25th in road courses this season and has one top-10 finish in the last 16 road-course events (Sonoma, 2022). 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 45-1

As noted earlier, it's been a struggle for Team Penske on road courses in 2023. Blaney has a best finish of 21st in the three races and enters Roger Penske's track with consecutive finishes outside the top 30 on road courses. Given his team owner owns the track, added emphasis will be put on this weekend. Blaney has run well in the two Indy Road Course events, finishing runner-up in 2021. Up to you on whether you believe the current trends. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick

Sitting 55 points below the playoff elimination line with three races remaining in the regular season, Elliott is going to be chasing wins for the rest of the month. To do that, he must beat Reddick, who put on a clinic in this race last year. While Elliott was once established as possibly the best road-course competitor in NASCAR, Reddick has arguably taken that crown. If the No. 45 team can have a clean day, it should be able to outrun the No. 9 team. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chris Buescher vs. Martin Truex Jr.

These two drivers had a classic battle for the win at Michigan. Unfortunately for them, nothing from MIS carries over to the Indianapolis Road Course. Fortunately, however, both are standout road racers, with Toyota upping its performance from 2022. I'm on the Buscher bandwagon and believe he extends his streak of top 10s on road courses to nine this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Shane van Gisbergen vs. Jenson Button

With the masterclass van Gisbergen displayed in his Cup debut at the Chicago Street Course, there's no chance I'm betting against him this weekend. Button has done well in his two starts at COTA and Chicago, but it pales in comparison to what van Gisbergen did last month. It might be unlikely for him to win on a track the series has been to before, but finishing in the top 10 is certainly in the cards. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Justin Haley vs. Michael McDowell

In Haley's Xfinity Series days with Kaulig Racing, he tabbed himself as the "dark horse." Never flashy, but always consistent. He can wheel on the road courses. McDowell, who enters the race needing points as he sits just below the elimination line, is going to be strong. I give the No. 34 team superiority this weekend. 

MY LINEUP: Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, Shane van Gisbergen

GARAGE: Michael McDowell