Fantasy Fastlane: High hopes for Hendrick at Watkins Glen

Hendrick Motorsports has dominated recently at Watkins Glen International. Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott have split the last four races on the famed road course with two wins each. It’s probable the HMS duo will be tested this weekend as the Cup Series field has much more depth on who consistently runs well on road courses due to the Next Gen car. Watkins Glen is a beast of its own, however, with fast speeds and long straightaways, and it is unlike most road courses on the schedule.

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MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-2

Elliott sits 80 points below the elimination line with two races left, and he absolutely needs to win one of the final two races in the regular season to qualify for the playoffs. Good thing for him, Watkins Glen is up next, a track where he’s been ultra-consistent the last several years. In the last four races at Watkins Glen, Elliott has a pair of wins, finished runner-up in 2021 and was battling for the win last year when Larson pushed him wide. The No. 9 car is an absolute must-start this weekend.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 5-1

Since we brought up one side of the HMS superiority at Watkins Glen, we might as well mention the second. Larson has been strong at The Glen since his rookie season, when he finished third. He enters this weekend with four consecutive top 10s and two straight wins at the road course. Absolutely use the No. 5 car this weekend because it’s probably the last time in the regular season that you will.

MUST START:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 10-1

If you happened to miss the Indianapolis road course last weekend, let me simply break it down for you: McDowell put a whupping on the field. It was the first time McDowell and Front Row Motorsports led the most laps in a single race, and it locked the No. 34 team into the postseason for the second time in three years. McDowell has scored the most points on road courses this season with 173 points, 35 more than second-place Larson.

MUST START:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

Trackhouse team owner Justin Marks said Suárez’s third-place finish at Indianapolis is the highest level he’s seen Suárez perform at, including his Sonoma win last season. That bodes well for Watkins Glen, where the Mexico native has three top fives in five starts. Despite the solid run at Indy, Suárez lost points to the playoff bubble because of McDowell’s win. Still, he gained 32 points on Bubba Wallace and is now 28 points back.

SLEEPER PICK:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

Bowman has turned into a respectable road-course competitor over the past few seasons. At Indianapolis, he scored his first top-five finish since March, which came at another road course, COTA. It’s been a challenge for the No. 48 team to put full races together during the summer, as it has with good finishes at Watkins Glen. In six races, Bowman has no finishes better than 14th, which he’s accomplished three times. Also sitting 80 points below the elimination line, Bowman is in must-win mode the next two weeks.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Don’t think it will be too long before Gibbs is a winner at the Cup level on a road course. He has scored the 10th-most points (110) of all drivers this season when turning left and right, and he even overcame an early spin at Indianapolis to get a solid 12th-place effort with no help from cautions. If Gibbs can stay on course this week, it could be a banner day for the No. 54 team. Remember, he won his first national-series start on a road course at Daytona.

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 50-1

Since Briscoe’s full-time Xfinity Series days, he has been a crafty road-course competitor. The No. 14 team is coming off a much-needed sixth-place effort at the Indianapolis Road Course, maintaining inside the top 10 throughout the day. In two Cup starts at Watkins Glen, he has an average finish of 17th, scoring a ninth-place outing in his rookie season. You probably shouldn’t put Briscoe in your lineup going into the season, but track how his weekend begins for him on Saturday in practice and qualifying.

STAY AWAY FROM:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Whoa, what? This will certainly be the most controversial – and it could backfire – pick of the week because of how successful Allmendinger is on road courses. He’s spectacular. But he was dejected with his race pace after practice at Indianapolis and ultimately got turned by Ryan Blaney and finished 26th. If Allmendinger goes out on Saturday and manhandles his car to the top 10 in practice and qualifying, it’s possible he becomes the favorite for the win.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 45-1

Depending on the layout, Logano can be a formidable road-course driver. He won at Watkins Glen in 2015 and has top-three efforts in three of the last seven races in New York. His other four finishes are outside the top 20. With how sluggish Team Penske’s road-course package has been in 2023, it’s an easy choice to leave Logano out of your lineup entering the weekend. The good news is that he shouldn’t have as much trouble with Turn 1 at The Glen as he has had at the Brickyard.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 65-1

Along with Kyle Busch and Marcos Ambrose, Keselowski is a part of what could arguably be considered the best finish of all time at Watkins Glen in 2012. That runner-up finish was the middle of three straight years when Keselowski finished second at WGI. In the eight races since 2014, he has just one top-five effort and five finishes of 15th or worse. I mentioned it heading into Indianapolis, but with the No. 6 car finishing 20th last weekend, Keselowski has just one top 10 in the last 17 road-course races.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Michael McDowell vs. Daniel Suárez

These two drivers were among the three best in Indianapolis last weekend. McDowell had a career performance, while Suárez won the pole and was hunting down McDowell and Elliott, but he couldn’t overcome a 23-second pit stop. McDowell would seem like the obvious choice given his ability to score points on road courses. But I’ll take the No. 99 team as Suárez looks to chip into his points deficit. He’s going to be on go mode.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Chase Elliott vs. Kyle Larson

Ah, these matchups are tough this weekend. It’s almost expected that the battle for the win will come down to these two drivers for the third straight year at Watkins Glen. Elliott needs a win and has momentum with how well he ran at Indianapolis. The No. 9 team is slowly regaining some of its road-course magic with three straight top fives between Sonoma, Chicago and Indy.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Alex Bowman vs. Denny Hamlin

With four top fives over the last six races at Watkins Glen, Hamlin could be another sneaky pick this weekend with how much Toyota has improved on road courses in 2023. Bowman’s only option is to win, so if a caution flies at an unconventional time, look for the No. 48 car to get off strategy. Still going to lean toward Bowman entering the weekend, though his finishes aren’t great at Watkins Glen. He’s also running the Xfinity Series race this weekend for Hendrick Motorsports.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Ty Gibbs vs. Bubba Wallace

What was recently a 50-point buffer on the elimination line could be gone completely if Wallace shows up with similar pace as he did at Indianapolis. Gibbs is the only choice here this weekend. The rookie driver is up to speed on road courses, while it’s the biggest flaw in Wallace’s game.

MY LINEUP: Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Michael McDowell, Daniel Suárez, Martin Truex Jr.

GARAGE: Tyler Reddick