Fantasy Fastlane: Be high on Toyota at Kansas

Toyota is undefeated at Kansas Speedway in the Next Gen era with three different drivers bringing the manufacturer to Victory Lane. Toyota is surely motivated to capture another checkered flag in the Midwest after a missed opportunity at Darlington last weekend, despite leading 307 of 367 laps of the race. You might see a common theme this weekend.

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MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

Hamlin is the only driver to have top-five finishes in all three Kansas races since the Cup Series moved to the Next Gen car. His first of two wins in 2023 came at Kansas in May, not without a little controversy when the No. 11 car and Kyle Larson tangled in the final laps. Eight of the last 12 Kansas races have resulted in top five efforts for Hamlin, and he will be extra motivated after finishing 25th in last week’s Southern 500 despite leading a race-high 177 laps.

MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

It might be easy to hang low and save your Larson starts for later in the postseason now that he’s advanced to the Round of 12 with the win at Darlington. However, the No. 5 team lacks playoff points compared to recent seasons, as Larson ranked sixth in the playoff grid entering the opening round. Strike while the iron is hot with Larson, as he’s also stout at Kansas with top-two finishes in three of the last four races and he has led 60-plus laps in four of his last six starts. 

MUST START: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

For just the second time in Wallace’s career, he enters the weekend as the defending race winner of an event. Last fall, he cruised to victory at the 1.5-mile track and backed it up with a fourth-place finish in May. The No. 23 team had a solid playoff opener, placing seventh at Darlington, which was just Wallace’s second top-10 finish since the Coca-Cola 600. 

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

It’s hard to imagine that the Regular Season Champion will miss the setup in consecutive weeks. Truex was a nonfactor at Darlington, dropping to sixth in the playoff standings. He’s elite at Kansas, however, sweeping the races in 2017. Over the last 13 races here, he’s accumulated 12 top 10s with an average finish of 6.0. It would be smart to use Truex this weekend; I pulled him mid-race from my lineup at Darlington.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 16-1

If you’re looking for trends, the odds are the No. 17 team is going to show up to Kansas with speed. In the last four oval races, all distinctly different from each other, Buescher has scored a podium finish with three wins. His Kansas numbers aren’t ideal with top 10s in just 20% of his starts and just one of those has come since the turn of the decade. This team continues to be sneaky and remains in a good points position after Darlington. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

Much like this year, Bowman went silent during the summer last year until the series visited Kansas in September. The No. 48 team surprisingly led a race-high 107 laps as opposed to leading just 30 circuits in his other 30 starts last season. Bowman has run better than his results indicate this season. Take last week as an example: he was running inside the top 10, blocked Daniel Suárez twice and it ended with a wrecked racecar. The spring Kansas race was among the three points races he’s missed in 2023 with a broken vertebrae.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 250-1

The majority of lineups will be stacked with playoff drivers. Rightfully so, as those teams tend to kick it up a notch, which can also lead to mistakes, in the postseason. Dillon’s No. 3 team is statistically having one of its worst seasons since he went full time in 2014, on pace to set his new low for average finish, currently at 21.8. Kansas was among the few bright spots this season, as he rounded out the top 10. He has top 15s in all three Kansas races with the Next Gen car. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

It’s hard to get a handle on the No. 8 team this season. Busch won three of the first 15 races but has since gone cold. Most of that is due to self-inflicted mistakes, such as contacting the wall in the playoff opener at Darlington. Three of the last four Kansas races have resulted in finishes of 26th or worse for Busch. Three of the four races before that ended inside the top five, including a win in 2021. That yo-yo effect sounds similar to his first year with RCR.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 22-1

The defending Cup champion began his playoff reign with a host of issues and now sits just three points above the elimination line. Kansas has been a struggle point for the No. 22 team in recent years, with six finishes of 15th or worse in the last nine races. Intermediate tracks have been the weakness for Team Penske in 2023 and it’s hard to imagine that turns around before this weekend. You could also tab Logano’s teammate Ryan Blaney here, who has three top 10s in 11 starts with Team Penske.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 80-1

Weeks like Darlington have been the Achilles heel for the No. 99 team. Suárez nearly went a lap down in the opening stage, drove to the top 10 and then was involved in a wreck with Bowman. This weekend could also serve as a growing pain, as he has a pair of top 10s in 13 Kansas starts with an average finish of 20.8. Four of his five stars with Trackhouse, however, have cracked the top 15. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

If these two were boxers, Hamlin would be up 2-0 on the scorecard. Both of Hamlin’s wins in 2023 have come at the expense of Larson, with one of those being at Kansas in May, though it was a racing incident. As noted, I’m expecting a big weekend for Toyota at Kansas and a bounce-back week for the No. 11 team after a loose wheel dismantled a potential dominant performance at Darlington.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Bubba Wallace vs. Kevin Harvick

With how the final stint of the Southern 500 went, Harvick might have fire coming out of his eyes this weekend. An unlucky break moved the No. 4 car from competing for the victory to finishing 19th, one point behind Wallace. Though Harvick’s record at Kansas is stupendous with an average finish of 9.9, Wallace should have an advantage this weekend as intermediates are where Toyota has excelled for the last two seasons.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell

Bell’s mistake late in the opening stage at Darlington represents how a good chunk of the last five months have gone for the No. 20 team. Reddick escaped without any miscues and padded a good cushion on the elimination line. Both cars will be fast this weekend, but Reddick might be the sleeper choice. Bell has top fives in two of the three Next Gen races at Kansas, while Reddick’s results don’t tell the full story of how he’s ran. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ross Chastain vs. Joey Logano

These two drivers have similar traits and have run similarly this season. So much so that they enter Kansas 10th and 11th in the standings. Give the advantage here to the No. 1 team, as Chastain scored the win at Nashville in the series’ last true race on a mile-and-a-half (Atlanta doesn’t count). Another postseason rally could be coming for Chastain, who just earned his first top five since Nashville at Darlington.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick

GARAGE: Kevin Harvick