Fantasy Fastlane: Don’t shy away from non-playoff drivers at Talladega

Since the inception of the current championship format in 2014, eight of nine Talladega playoff races have been won by drivers still eligible for the championship. The only outlier was Bubba Wallace in 2021, a race that was cut short due to inclement weather. There should certainly be playoff drivers in your lineup this weekend, but it’s also a race where you can use drivers who are out of championship contention and still put a lot of points down on the table. 

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MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 13-1

Prior to Buescher’s hot streak this season, he was known to be a frontrunner on superspeedways and road courses. He scored his first victory on a drafting track in the series’ last time out on a superspeedway and has been in contention to win many other superspeedway races. RFK Racing always puts an emphasis on its superspeedway package and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the No. 17 car is leading laps, as he has paced the field for 78 laps this season in drafting races. 

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 11-1

Oh yeah, then there’s the co-owner of RFK, who is among the best to ever race at NASCAR’s largest oval. Keselowski is in rare territory with six victories at Talladega, tied with Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the second-most wins, only trailing Dale Earnhardt’s 10. He’s also due for a win, as it’s been 92 races since he last visited Victory Lane, which just so happened to be at Talladega in 2021. 

MUST START:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

Wallace sits just two points below the Round of 8 elimination line and is in a position to put pressure on drivers hanging near the bubble. He’s also an elite superspeedway competitor and has one mission at Talladega: run at the front, as his spotter Freddie Kraft said on Door Bumper Clear earlier this week. Outside of his win two years ago, Wallace’s statistics aren’t flashy at Talladega – zero additional top 10s – but he always puts himself in contention.

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 12-1

It’s unfamiliar to have Logano in this position, already being eliminated from the playoffs. Everyone knows his aggression level is pegged on superspeedways, which has resulted in three victories at Talladega. It’s been a brutal follow-up season for the No. 22 team after winning the championship in 2022, but Logano’s lone win came at Atlanta. Logano will be on the chip at Talladega, looking for his second triumph in 2023. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 20-1

With the uncertainty of Almirola’s future, it’s possible that this is his last realistic chance at ever winning a race at the Cup Series level. He always finds his way towards the front on superspeedways, finishing third at Daytona in the regular-season finale. It wasn’t long ago that he had a streak of eight straight top 10s at Talladega, including his 2018 win, though he has now gone six races without cracking the top 10. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

It feels like we’ve been writing a lot about Jones here, as he’s been marked as a sleeper now for three straight weeks. But have you seen the improvements with the No. 43 team? He was running second for a good chunk of the race at Texas and has found similar speed to 2022. Jones had a near miss at Talladega in the Next Gen’s first race at the track in the spring of 2022 and fell to sixth, his first of three consecutive sixth-place finishes at the track. Maybe he will reach the top five this weekend. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Todd Gilliland | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 Ford

Odds: 65-1

It was this race last season where Gilliland impressed many people. He was a top-10 threat throughout the day and finished seventh. He backed up that performance with a 10th-place result this spring in a third Front Row Motorsports entry. Gilliland has matured from last season and could be a trendy pick.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

You could probably copy and paste what I’ve written about Larson from the previous five superspeedways this season here and it would still apply. Larson has greatly improved on superspeedways, but still finds a way to get caught up in incidents regularly. He’s DNF’d in four of the five this season and, while he finished at Daytona in August, he was still involved in a multi-car incident.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 30-1

Much of what is said about Larson can be used for Truex, too. The only difference is Truex has won stages on superspeedways – he’s won three of the last eight at Daytona – yet is still winless in 78 tries. The No. 19 team has had a disastrous start to the playoffs, and it’s hard to see that improving at this wild card.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No 45 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

Reddick has a win in the Xfinity Series at Talladega but has often struggled at the track since moving to the Cup level. He does have a pair of seventh-place finishes in seven starts, but also has four finishes of 20th or worse. It’s possible Reddick could fill a spot in your lineup for many of the tracks in the second half of the playoffs, so wouldn’t waste a start on him here. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Ryan Blaney

It’s favorable to go with Blaney this weekend, and he’s in my lineup because he’s always in position to win at Talladega, including the spring race earlier this season when he tangled with Wallace on the final lap. But don’t overlook Busch’s four top 10s in the five superspeedway races this season and how he wrecked out of the Daytona 500 in overtime while battling inside the top five. Busch was on the better end of the spring race, scoring his first superspeedway win in nearly 15 years. Still banking on Blaney. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Bubba Wallace vs. Tyler Reddick

For everything stated earlier, Wallace is the right choice. He’s aggressive enough to put himself in position but plays races out smart as well and backs out when there’s potential for the “Big One.” Reddick isn’t bad on superspeedways; Wallace is just better on those types of tracks. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Brad Keselowski vs. Kyle Larson

Keselowski, Keselowski, Keselowski. Do I need to say any more? With five straight top 10s, the No. 6 team is on the brink of winning at all different types of racetracks. He’s stellar at Talladega, a place where Larson has struggled with three top 10s in 17 starts. In that same span, the 2012 champion has won here four times.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Martin Truex Jr.

It’s beginning to feel like Chastain is going on another magical playoff run, similar to what he did in 2022 when he made the Championship 4. To do so, he needs to put together a respectable showing at Talladega, where he won at last season. Truex might score stage points, but he has just one top-10 finish in the last 15 starts, with 12 of those finishes being 20th or worse. 

MY LINEUP: Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney

GARAGE: Erik Jones