Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Another walk-off win lurks at the Roval

The Round of 12 closes Sunday at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). 

Before the next round is set, see where drivers closest to the elimination line stand before the weekend with the latest installment of Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity. 

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

Chris Buescher 

Points above elimination line: 19

Trending: Mostly Cold Recently

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warming Up: Buescher is arguably the most consistent driver on road courses currently. He owns nine top-10 finishes in the last 10 races on road courses. Charlotte appears to be a favorable track for him to reach the Round of 8 with two straight finishes of sixth or better. 

Martin Truex Jr. 

Points above elimination line: 17

Trending: Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Cooling Off: Truex has turned in a solid career on left and right-turn tracks, but two consecutive finishes of 17th or worse at Charlotte will raise a little bit of concern for this year's regular-season champion, who narrowly escaped elimination in the prior round. 

Kyle Larson

Points above elimination line: 15

Trending: Cooling Off

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Win or Bust: There's a chance Larson will go down as one of the greatest road-course drivers ever. However, outside of winning the Roval playoff race in 2021, his numbers at this track layout have been shoddy with three finishes of 13th or worse. 

Brad Keselowski

Points above elimination line: 2

Trending: Talladega Snapped Hot Streak

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Cold: After winning Stage 2 at Talladega last Sunday, it appeared Keselowski would have a comfortable gap over the elimination line. That all changed after a Final-Stage wreck that took the No. 6 Ford out of the race. Now, with just a two-point cushion and Tyler Reddick breathing down his neck, Sunday is going to be filled with nerves for the Keselowski camp as he's never won on a road course. 

Tyler Reddick

Points below elimination line: 2

Trending: Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Hot: Reddick will be among the favorites on Sunday with three road-course wins in his back pocket. Reddick's worst start on a road course this season was eighth at Watkins Glen. Outside of that, he's made the front row at every other road course. 

Bubba Wallace 

Points below elimination line: 9

Trending: Hit or Miss

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Cold Until 2022: Wallace is improving ever so slightly on road courses but a poor showing at Talladega will force him to have his best performance on a road course ever on Sunday. It could pan out for the No. 23 team, though, as Wallace finished seventh on the Roval last season. 

Ross Chastain

Points below elimination line: 10

Trending: Mostly Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Cold: The Roval has been an enemy to Chastain since its inception in 2018. He doesn't have a finish better than 22nd in four career starts and finished 37th in last year's edition, despite coming into his own as a strong road racer. He also has three consecutive results of 17th or worse on road courses. 

Kyle Busch

Points below elimination line: 26

Trending: Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warm: Rowdy is all but in a must-win situation on Sunday. While he isn't favored, there is hope as Busch has scored top-four finishes in back-to-back Roval events after three straight finishes of 30th or worse.