Fantasy Fastlane: Will Martin Truex Jr. hit the jackpot in Sin City?

Just four races remain in the 2023 Cup Series season and Las Vegas is a good city for some teams to get back on track. Toyota has been the dominant manufacturer at intermediates this season, but it was Hendrick Motorsports that swept the podium in March. There hasn’t been a true mile-and-a-half race that widens out since Kansas. Expect many of the teams that were good there to be stout again this weekend. Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more. Learn more about Fan Rewards

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View Stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota 

Odds: 11-2 

The No. 11 team might have let a few wins slip away on intermediate tracks this season, but Hamlin is the one driver who is frequently at the front on these styles of tracks. It doesn't matter the layout, he's going to be a factor. On his Actions Detrimental podcast this week, he considered Las Vegas to be akin to Kansas - a place where it takes him time to settle in. We've seen how well he's done at Kansas recently and also led laps in the last six Vegas races. 

MUST START:

William Byron | View Stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

Look no further than here as to remembering who won the spring race at Las Vegas. Byron had the dominant car, leading 176 of 271 laps and edged out Kyle Larson for the victory. Byron has momentum on his side, posting an average finish of 1.66 in the Round of 12. Byron has top five finishes in two of the three Next Gen races at this 1.5-mile track.

MUST START: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

The most recent victor at a track like Vegas is Reddick. He didn’t dominate the day, but he executed the final restart to perfection to sneak out front. Reddick has top 10s in three of the past four races in Sin City and is amid a solid postseason run. With races at Vegas and Homestead on the horizon, the Round of 8 sets up nicely for the No. 45 team. 

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

The playoffs have been an utter disaster for the regular season champion, but Truex has escaped the first two rounds and has a good shot of making it to Phoenix. It’s been since mid-August – seven races – that the No. 19 team last cracked the top 15 in the finishing order, Truex’s longest streak since 2009, his final season with DEI. Truex was once the king of intermediate tracks and has a pair of wins at Las Vegas. Dating back to 2017, he’s scored 11 top 10s in the last 12 races. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 13-1

Of the eight drivers remaining with a shot at winning the 2023 championship, Blaney probably has the most outside chance. It’s not because he can’t get the job done, but because Ford has struggled at downforce tracks this season. Remember, Blaney did win the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, a very similar layout to Las Vegas. That’s also his last top five on a non-superspeedway. The No. 12 car was a mainstay in the top five in this race last season – winning the second stage – before spinning off Turn 2. He can’t make any self-inflicted mistakes this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 22-1

When the Cup Series rolled into Sin City in the spring, Chastain was touted as someone you had to start in your lineup. My, how times have changed. Aside from Nashville, Chastain’s lone win in 2023, the No. 1 team has struggled mightily at intermediates since the middle of May. His runner-up finish at Texas from last month looks good, but he managed the late carnage and continued moving up the leaderboard. Chastain is good here, nearly winning the race last fall. His average finish at Las Vegas in the Next Gen is 5.66.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

Bowman continued his top-10 streak at the Charlotte Roval last weekend and enters Las Vegas with consecutive top five finishes at this track. Through 29 starts this season, his third-place run in March is tied for his best finish of the season (COTA). He also scored stage points in both stages. Vegas is also the site of his last victory, coming in the spring of 2022.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 16-1

It would be hard to argue that Buescher’s No. 17 team is the best Ford team remaining in the playoffs. He got hot at the right time and that streak continued into the postseason. His Las Vegas numbers are less than ideal, however, with one top-10 finish – placed ninth in 2020 – in 13 starts. There’s a new norm around RFK, but I would think you would be better off potentially using Buescher at Homestead.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-1

I tried to put Elliott here in the spring, but he broke his leg before arriving at the track which prevented him from racing the next events. The No. 9 car is still alive in the owner’s championship, giving Elliott a ton to race for. His 226 points scored in the playoffs is tied with Larson for second of all drivers and trails only his HMS teammate Byron (234). The primary concern for Elliott is the last time he raced at Vegas, he was a nonfactor, running outside the top 20 the entire race. It’s possible we change this on Saturday. That’s par for the course for him at Vegas, though, as six of his 12 results have been outside the top 20.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Based on recent logic, there’s a good chance Harvick finishes ninth or 12th this weekend. In the last four races at Vegas, he has split those positions down the middle at two apiece. Ironically, this is an intermediate track that Harvick has average numbers at by his standards. His two wins came in a four-race stretch and he has top 10s in just 50% of his starts.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Tyler Reddick vs. Ryan Blaney

Prior to the playoffs beginning, I had neither driver making it to the Round of 8. That looks plain silly now. But Reddick is on a postseason heater, similar to his two Xfinity Series championship runs when he maximized each race. Blaney is likely going to be strong this weekend, but Reddick is good everywhere.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Christopher Bell vs. Chris Buescher

If you haven’t noticed, I’m high on Toyota this weekend. They are the cream of the crop this season at tracks like Vegas. Neither driver has ever won on a mile-and-a-half in the Cup Series, but the advantage must go to Bell this weekend. It will boil down to if the No. 20 team has a clean day on pit road and Bell limits his mistakes.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Kyle Larson vs. Denny Hamlin

This feels like a prime weekend to use Larson, knowing he’s superb on tracks like this. My mind might change throughout the weekend, but having only two uses left with him, they must be used sparingly over the final month of the season. It’s also a given he will be in almost everyone’s lineup next weekend at Homestead. This is a tough call because it’s hard to imagine Hamlin is going to show up with average speed. Leaning toward using Hamlin but wouldn’t be surprised if Larson also has lights out speed. He led 63 laps in the spring.

FEATURED MATCHUPS: 

Martin Truex Jr. vs. William Byron

What Truex is going to show up this weekned? the one that won his second regular season championship or the catasthrophe we've seen over the last two months? I tend to lean the former, as he was quick in practice at Kansas and cut down a tire in the opening three laps. Byron is in my lineup for a reason as well, so it won't be gimme. He remains my championship pick. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Bubba Wallace

GARAGE: Ryan Blaney