Kyle Larson is the only driver locked into the Championship 4 who knows he will compete for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship on Nov. 5 at Phoenix Raceway.
The seven other drivers left in the Round of 8 are vying for three spots to join him. That fight continues Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), where champions have long been made.
Four drivers sit beneath the provisional elimination heading to South Florida. Surely, a case can be made for each of them to advance to the final round of the postseason, right?
MORE: Latest playoff standings | Homestead-Miami schedule
5. Christopher Bell (-2 to elimination line)
Bell was just about as close as anyone could be to not being on this list. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota fell just 0.082 seconds short at Las Vegas, but the door shouldn’t be closed on the only member of the 2022 Championship 4 left. His Homestead numbers aren’t exceptional but certainly, nothing to sneeze at either, with finishes of eight, 20th and 11th in three starts. His walk-off win a season ago at Martinsville launched him into the title race, so there’s no doubt he and crew chief Adam Stevens could work that magic all over again this year.
6. Tyler Reddick (-16)
Reddick was surprisingly never a factor last week at Las Vegas, but the high-line glider seems primed for a great run at Homestead-Miami. No one loves running against the wall quite like Larson or Reddick, and it’s worked in Reddick’s favor in the past. He finished fourth and second in his first two Cup starts at the 1.5-mile track before crashing out last year and claimed each of his two Xfinity Series championships there as well. His first Cup win at the track could come this weekend, which would lock him into the title fight for the first time at the sport’s highest level.
7. Ryan Blaney (-17)
With his Las Vegas points reinstated after NASCAR rescinded its initial disqualification of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford, Blaney enters Homestead with more than a fighting chance to find his path out of the Round of 8 for the first time in his career. This is Blaney’s fifth appearance in the penultimate round of the playoffs. How does he move onto Phoenix this time? It’s not impossible he finds a way to Victory Lane at Homestead. He was running third before pitting with 57 laps left a year ago — but took himself out of contention after an errant downshift spun his No. 12 Ford sideways and caused a caution. His first win of 2023 also came on a 1.5-mile track at Charlotte.
His path to Phoenix is more likely to shine at Martinsville, where he’s earned a 9.5 average finish — his best on any track with three or more starts. Blaney has seven top-fives and nine top-10 finishes in 15 starts at the 0.526-mile oval and has led 377 laps there. He hasn’t led the last one yet, but he’s earned the second-most points of anyone in the Next Gen car at Martinsville, per Racing Insights.
8. Chris Buescher (-23)
In his first deep run in the NASCAR Playoffs, Buescher is easily having the best season of his career. He has not won at either Homestead-Miami or Martinsville, but who’s to say this isn’t the year he breaks through? Buescher showed excellent speed to win at the 2-mile oval at Michigan over the summer and has been excellent on short tracks too, nabbing a 2022 win at Bristol in addition to this year’s triumph at Richmond. Is a walk-off win on the table for Buescher at Martinsville? He only has one top 10 in 23 combined starts at either track, but Buescher has proved any stats from prior seasons don’t necessarily apply this year.