Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Reddick could spoil title favorites’ hopes
1 of 8
Getty Images
With Kyle Larson's ticket punched to the Championship 4 after Las Vegas, just three spots are left heading to Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
See the outlook for the Round of 8 drivers heading into the weekend with the latest edition of Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity).
(Stats provided by Racing Insights)
2 of 8
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
William Byron
Points above elimination line: 9
Trending: Red Hot
Homestead outlook -- Hit or Miss: Byron walked away from Vegas with stage points and a top-10 finish, but the problem is that most of the Round of 8 collected similar results, and now the six-time winner in 2023 sits just nine points above the elimination line. Byron does own a win at Homestead (2021) but finished outside the top 10 last year, which likely will need to change on Sunday.
3 of 8
James Gilbert | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr.
Points above elimination line: 2
Trending: Las Vegas Snapped Cold Streak
Homestead outlook -- Hot: Truex doesn't stray too far one way or another from the elimination line. Being just two points to the good might as well be a comfortable spot for the No. 19 team, and Truex is very good at Homestead; leading 377 laps at the track, which includes his title-clinching win in 2017.
4 of 8
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin
Points above elimination line: 2
Trending: Mostly Warm
Homestead outlook -- Mostly Warm: Like Truex, Hamlin is among the best at Homestead. He owns three wins in the 305 and should be up front for most of Sunday's race after a seventh-place run last year.
5 of 8
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Christopher Bell
Points below elimination line: 2
Trending: Hit or Miss
Homestead outlook -- Hit or Miss: Bell lamented after Sunday's race that he felt his opportunity to make the Championship 4 was passing Larson on the final lap, but the No. 20 driver's hopes are far from over as Bell breathes down the neck of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. However, he'll need to improve on an 11th-place finish from last year at Homestead.
6 of 8
Getty Images
Tyler Reddick
Points below elimination line: 16
Trending: Warming Up
Homestead outlook -- Hit or Miss: Here's where this championship picture could flip upside down. Reddick has been very good at Homestead in his national series career. He won back-to-back Xfinity Series titles by winning at this track and scored top fives in his first two Cup appearances at Homestead. A Reddick win at Homestead guarantees one of Byron, Truex or Hamlin will be eliminated from title contention.
7 of 8
Getty Images
Ryan Blaney
Points below elimination line: 17
Trending: Hit or Miss
Homestead outlook -- Cold: Even recovering his sixth-place finish at Vegas after an initial DQ, Blaney's best hopes of making the Champ 4 may depend on Martinsville instead of Homestead. Just one top 10 at the track in eight starts doesn't bode well for the Team Penske driver, who is still seeking his first appearance in the championship round.
8 of 8
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chris Buescher
Points below elimination line: 23
Trending: Hit or Miss
Homestead outlook -- Cold: Buescher failed to tally stage points at Vegas, which has now put him in a serious hole heading into Sunday. While having no top 10s in seven starts at the track isn't a great sign, his best finish did come last year in the Next Gen car (13th).