Power Rankings: How all 12 Championship 4 drivers stack up
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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks all 12 Championship 4 contenders before Championship Weekend at Phoenix Raceway.
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12. Sam Mayer, No. 1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet (NXS)
Comment: Though only slightly improving his average finish from a year ago, Mayer took a significant leap forward in 2023 by adding his first four Xfinity Series wins, with a championship still on the table. The youngest Championship 4 contender across all series has a bright future ahead of him, though a title will likely have to wait another year — he's yet to even land in the top 10 in his four career Phoenix starts.
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11. Ben Rhodes, No. 99 ThorSport Racing Ford (NCTS)
Comment: Rhodes, in his third straight Championship 4 appearance, is certainly capable of making it happen at Phoenix for the title — look no further than when he did just that in 2021. The biggest concern here, however, is that I think we're going to see the title winner need to win in all three of these races. It's something Rhodes has done the least of this year's Champ 4 ... and something he also wasn't able to do when he did win his championship, finishing third to race winner Chandler Smith.
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10. Grant Enfinger, No. 23 GMS Racing Chevrolet (NCTS)
Comment: Enfinger saw a bit of a resurgence this year, picking up three wins after just one in the two previous seasons while turning in his best average finish (9.1) since a career-best 8.5 in 2019. He has three finishes of sixth or better in six Phoenix starts, and perhaps everything is coming to fruition at the right moment for the oldest Championship 4 contender in any series. Maybe not the most likely winner, but it would be a nice send-off for GMS.
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9. Cole Custer, No. 00 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford (NXS)
Comment: It wasn't quite the super dominant year for Custer some pegged him for after three full-time Cup Series seasons, but No. 00's Xfinity return did see two victories and a decent shot at the title here come Saturday. On paper, it looks like it'll be one of the two favorites, though, with both of Custer's wins this season coming on road courses and the fact that he turned a Phoenix pole into a P12 earlier this year. That said, those Cup seasons did season him up a little bit, so he'll have plenty of poise under pressure.
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8. Carson Hocevar, No. 42 Niece Motorsports Chevrolet (NCTS)
Comment: It still sort of feels like Hocevar is just now busting onto the scene, but this might be his only shot at a truck title before making the leap to full-time Cup racing next year. He's getting the Cup call because he's supremely talented and has backed up his ability in his limited big-time starts, but he'll need to elevate his game even further to win the title. He has an average finish of 18.5 at Phoenix in four Truck starts.
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7. William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (Cup)
Comment: What, the leading Cup Series winner in 2023 didn't even make the top half of these rankings? Just goes to show you how strong — and even — this year's field is, because a case could be made that Byron may even be the favorite. While there's no denying there are plenty of reasons why the spring Phoenix winner could be the one to pick, my leaning here is it's his first Championship 4, he's battling a teammate with similar equipment, and that teammate has a title under his belt already along with extra preparation time. The championship could absolutely go to Byron; it's just not the most likely scenario in my mind.
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6. Justin Allgaier, No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet (NXS)
Comment: With Denny Hamlin's elimination at Martinsville, all the "is this finally his year?" sentiment shifted squarely to Allgaier, a six-time Championship 4 contender and zero-time champion. This season stands as one of his best shots yet, and he's riding a wave of momentum coming off a thrilling Martinsville win. He's a two-time Phoenix winner as well, and he'll be strong. So ... is this finally his year? Maybe.
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5. Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toytota (Cup)
Comment: Arguably the fastest driver all postseason long, Bell might get a leg up on everyone early in the weekend if he's able to collect his fifth pole of the playoffs for a race in which track position will be key. The timing feels about right for a Bell title — and he certainly has the right crew chief to help him deliver it — but he's yet to lead a lap in seven Phoenix starts that have netted a 14.4 average finish. They'll need to be perfect.
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4. Corey Heim, No. 11 Tricon Garage Toyota (NCTS)
Comment: Though Hocevar had one more win, there was no more consistently strong Truck Series driver than Heim in 2023 as the Tricon competitor turned in a sterling 6.2 average finish to top the series and looks like the guy to beat. He compiled a tremendous 19 top 10s in 21 starts and will look to better his P7 at Phoenix in this race last year, when he led five laps as a part-timer.
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3. John Hunter Nemechek, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (NXS)
Comment: Everything sure appears to line up pretty well for Nemechek winning the Xfinity title and ride off into the sunset as he makes his way back to the Cup Series next year. His foray back in Trucks and Xfinity was a fruitful, though still currently title-less, one, but that may end on the highest of notes. With no finishes outside the top 10 in six Phoenix starts and the best overall season in the series this year, look for JHN to get it done on Saturday.
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2. Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford (Cup)
Comment: I'll get this out of the way now — Blaney could easily be the No. 1 option here, but it's a ranking, and by default, that means I have to put somebody second, so here we are. No. 12's Martinsville run — and entire playoffs, really — was nothing short of remarkable, and the way he's turned his season around after having his talent even questioned at times during it shows what kind of competitor he is and the team Roger Penske has surrounded him with. Blaney also nearly won last year's Phoenix race as a non-Championship 4 driver and is generally exceptional there. My main concern here is that Martinsville and the pressure that surrounded it made for such a highly charged, emotional moment that a comedown effect of sorts, combined with lack of prep time, is in store for Phoenix. Though perhaps not, and maybe this team and driver are going to just continue to ride the wave into the history books.
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1. Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (Cup)
Comment: Of course, if you're any driver in the series right now, you want to be Kyle Larson. The 2021 champ is the only former title winner vying for this year's Cup crown, and he's the only driver to not have to sweat out the past two race weekends after locking in early at Las Vegas. Extra time for the cerebral Cliff Daniels to prepare the No. 5 car spells bad news for the other cars out there, and with arguably the best talent sport and inarguably the most experienced driver in the Champ 4, it feels like it's a lock for Larson.