Racing Insights: William Byron takes over top spot for Phoenix

Editor’s Note: This story was updated after Friday’s practice and Saturday’s qualifying sessions:

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After initially predicting Ryan Blaney would give Ford its first victory of the 2024 season, Racing Insights has switched its pick to Chevrolet’s William Byron after Friday’s practice and Saturday’s qualifying sessions. If true, this will keep Chevrolet’s streak of wins to start the season in tact and give Byron his second victory this year.

Despite his starting position of 16th, Blaney didn’t drop too far from the top spot as he comes in second place in the reworked advanced metrics for Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). After Blaney comes Kyle Larson, Joey Logano and polesitter Denny Hamlin to round out the top five.

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Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick complete the top 10 as the Toyota teams tended to work their way up the charts this weekend.

Still, anything can happen in the Wild West, but expect this race to hold a great deal of weight despite it being just the fourth race of the 2024 season and the site of the finale down the road. Teams and drivers who have title hopes will get their first chance to cut their teeth into this year’s new short-track package and have an idea of what to expect if they find themselves contending for a championship come November.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: Shocker, right? Larson has been scary consistent on the 1-mile oval. In his last 10 races at Phoenix, he has netted nine top-10 finishes. There’s no doubt he will be a major player this weekend, aiming to earn back-to-back wins.

ROSS CHASTAIN: Chastain won last year’s season finale at Phoenix and led more than half the race, upsetting the Championship 4 drivers en route to Victory Lane. Additionally, he has finished in the top three in all but one Phoenix race in the Next-Gen era.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: While Keselowski is off to a cold start and has an average finish of 22.8 in the last four races at Phoenix, consider this to be more of a wild-card pick. The desert has proven to be a place where drivers can end dry spells, and given the unpredictable nature of the Cup Series, you never know when it could be your week.

CHASE BRISCOE: This is a sneaky-good pick to watch. Briscoe won the Phoenix spring race in 2022 and has turned in two additional top-10 performances in his last three Phoenix races. He also ranks fifth in most laps run in the top five at Phoenix Raceway in the Next Gen era.

ERIK JONES: He was one of the Toyota drivers who showed remarkable speed over the weekend and is lining up fourth. His odds to win the race have improved from 100-1 to 28-1.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE SHRINER’S CHILDREN 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.