Fantasy Fastlane: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell stocks rise leading into Bristol

After a three-year endeavor of laying dirt over the high-banked concrete at Bristol Motor Speedway, the spring race returns to the familiar pavement this weekend. Bristol is known for lightning-fast speeds, and with lap times clicking at a blistering 15 seconds, there’s nowhere to hide. 

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MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 4-1

When attempting to save Larson for later playoff races last fall, I was foolish enough to not start him at Bristol. Not making that mistake twice. It’s astonishing that Larson has only one victory at Bristol (2021), despite cracking the top 10 in eight of his last nine starts. In three of those nine races, he led at least 175 laps. Both Next Gen races have resulted in top-five finishes, so the No. 5 car is the centerpoint of my lineup this week.

MUST START: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 11-1

Buescher isn’t shy about sharing his love for the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile,” and he picked up RFK’s first victory as a rebranded team here in 2022. Coming off a runner-up finish at Phoenix, expect the No. 17 team to keep its momentum rolling.

MUST START: 

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

In addition to Larson and Buescher, Bell is the only other driver to have top-five finishes in both Bristol concrete races in the Next Gen era. The No. 20 car won the pole last September, leading a race-high 187 laps. Bell took advantage of having the fastest car in Phoenix last weekend, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him rattle off two wins in a row for the first time in his Cup career. 

MUST START: 

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Could this finally be the weekend that Elliott returns to Victory Lane for the first time since the fall of 2022? Even a top five would be a morale boost for the No. 9 team, given last June (Nashville) was the last time Elliott earned a top-five result on a non-drafting oval. The good news: Elliott is solid at Bristol, posting an 11.9 average finish across 13 starts. He has top 10s in four of the last six races here.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 13-1

Gibbs continues to be a weekly threat for a top-five finishing position and is coming off his best career finish of third at Phoenix. The last time the Cup Series competed at Bristol, Gibbs, then a rookie, led 102 laps and finished fifth. On that September night, he felt he let a potential victory slip away on pit road. This time around, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hoist a trophy for the first time in Cup competition. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds: 80-1

Perhaps intentioanlly as he eases into the premier series, the rookie Hocevar has gone under the radar through the first month of the Cup Series season, not making any public enemies. Yet he still gets quality finishes, entering Bristol with a pair of top 15s in the bag. Driving for Legacy Motor Club last fall, Bristol was where Hocevar shined in just his fourth series start. He finished 11th, but at one point during the second stage, he cracked the top five on pure speed.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 60-1

McDowell’s late-career renaissance has been uber-impressive. The No. 34 car hung around the top five throughout the duration of the Bristol race last fall, ultimately finishing sixth. After the race, the two-time Cup Series winner claimed it was the best short-track performance he’s put together. He has finishes of 11th or better in both Bristol races in the Next Gen car, and Front Row continues to execute at a high level. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

Bristol has never been kind to Truex. It’s the one short track he hasn’t figured out, with just one top-10 finish across the last 10 races at the track. In that same span, he has six finishes outside the top 20. You may ask when his last top five was? All the way back in 2012 … 21 races ago. A lot has changed since then, but the one constant -- don’t waste a fantasy start on Truex this weekend. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 13-1

There is a condensed sample size when reviewing Reddick’s Bristol races on concrete, but an average finish of 18.4 isn’t ideal. In his lone shot with 23XI last fall, he was a nonfactor in 15th. Don’t worry, however. With the speed Reddick has shown on downforce tracks to start the season, he will be used plenty during the regular season, including next week at COTA. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 18-1

With three wrecks and two DNFs in the opening month of the season, Logano is buried 30th in the regular season championship standings. It seems like there’s only one way to go for the two-time champion. However, his last six Bristol concrete races have resulted in finishes outside the top 10. When will the No. 22 team right the ship this season? 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Chris Buescher vs. Chase Elliott

Given both drivers are tagged with “must start” next to their names this weekend, I expect solid races from each. It’s hard to trust the No. 9 team currently, though. Elliott had speed at Phoenix and faded to 19th in the finishing order. Buescher seems to consistently maximize his race, which includes top fives in the previous two Bristol races -- and a dominant win in 2022. He's probably the safer pick.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Michael McDowell vs. Ryan Preece 

Stewart-Haas Racing seems to be rebuilding in the right direction ever so slightly. Noah Gragson and Chase Briscoe have led the charge, but Preece spent time inside the top five at Phoenix after a strategy call. He’s undoubtedly a short-track racer and has finished 12th or better in half of his six Bristol races. I still like McDowell this weekend as the No. 34 team continues to be a weekly threat for top 10s. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Christopher Bell vs. Brad Keselowski

This is tougher than it might seem based on my earlier praise for Bell. Though Keselowski’s Bristol finishes are inconsistent, he has a trio of victories -- with the last coming in 2020 -- and often spends a bulk of time out front, leading at least 40 laps in six of his last nine starts. With how much speed JGR has at short tracks, Bell is still the pick. Last fall, three JGR entries led north of 100 laps. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Carson Hocevar vs. Josh Berry

Berry is known as a short-track ace, but Hocevar seems to be the real deal. Whatever he gets in, he’s fast. He barely finished outside the top 10 in just his fourth series start last fall at Bristol, and now that he has more experience, might be a real threat for his first top-10 finish on Sunday. 

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs 

GARAGE: Kyle Busch